Adventure Home 6663X-KH Plan · Evansville, WY 82636

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,023 sqft · Manufactured · 98 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Arriving April! Ask about our Pre-Sale Promotion, SAVE TODAY! * * LIMITED INVENTORY REMAINING * * This charming, manufactured home offers 1023 square feet of cozy living space, with three bedrooms and two bathrooms. This home is sold with an Air Conditioner, 2 car drive pad, an 8X8 front deck, and 4X4 back deck. Ask about the Enhancement Options that are available with every house. Easy Finance Options Newly Owned and renovated Community next to metro shopping and restaurants. For Information Direct Message Me, Or Call - 307-333-6366, Or Visit Our Website WWW. AspenMHC. COM

Key facts

• 4x4 back deck
• 8x8 front deck
• 2 car drive pad

Tags

• 2 CAR DRIVE PAD
• 8X8 FRONT DECK
• 4X4 BACK DECK

🏗️ New construction. The $85,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $83,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $351 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#51 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Natrona County School District #1 (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 41 in WY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 310 units permitted in Natrona County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $574 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Natrona County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.14%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $83,000
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: 2.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $8,937
• Equity at exit: $12,376

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $36,658
• Equity at exit: $7,176

Cash invested: $23,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Wyoming: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+25
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable; small market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 82636

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,171 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$104 /mo · $1,245/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $726

Max offer price $83,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $409	-5% $380	+0% $351	+5% $323	+10% $294
Rent	-10% $259	-5% $305	+0% $351	+5% $397	+10% $444
Rate	-1.0pp $393	-0.5pp $372	base $351	+0.5pp $330	+1.0pp $308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,750
• Closing costs: $2,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 78 DOM
18. 2026-03-13
    listed $85,000 Active 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Arriving April! Ask about our Pre-Sale Promotion, SAVE TODAY! * * LIMITED INVENTORY REMAINING * * This charming, manufactured home offers 1023 square feet of cozy living space, with three bedrooms and two bathrooms. This home is sold with an Air Conditioner, 2 car drive pad, an 8X8 front deck, and 4X4 back deck. Ask about the Enhancement Options that are available with every house. Easy Finance Options Newly Owned and renovated Community next to metro shopping and restaurants. For Information Direct Message Me, Or Call - 307-333-6366, Or Visit Our Website WWW. AspenMHC. COM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,048
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,649
• − Property taxes: −$1,245
• − Insurance: −$415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,124
• − Management: −$1,124
• − Depreciation: −$2,415
• Taxable income: $3,076
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$738
• After-tax cash flow: $3,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to a livable condition. Significant investment is needed to improve its condition and increase its resale or rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen appliances — Old and worn, likely inoperable.
• Major Kitchen countertops — Stained and in need of replacement.
• Major Exterior siding — No visible condition details, likely in poor condition.
• Major Exterior roof — No visible condition details, likely in poor condition.
• Major Interior walls/paint — No visible condition details, likely in poor condition.
• Major Windows — No visible condition details, likely in poor condition.
• Major Foundation/structure — No visible condition details, likely in poor condition.
• Major HVAC/mechanical systems — No visible condition details, likely in poor condition.
• Major Landscaping/curb appeal — No visible condition details, likely in poor condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances will attract more buyers.
• Resale New countertops — Fresh countertops will improve the home's appearance.
• Both Exterior painting and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and attracts more renters.
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency.
• Both Interior painting and minor repairs — Fresh paint and repairs will make the home more appealing and functional.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen appliances · Old and worn, likely inoperable.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen countertops · Stained and in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · No visible condition details, likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior roof · No visible condition details, likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · No visible condition details, likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · No visible condition details, likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation/structure · No visible condition details, likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanical systems · No visible condition details, likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping/curb appeal · No visible condition details, likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 9 items		$135,000–450,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances will attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale New countertops — Fresh countertops will improve the home's appearance. ↑
• Both Exterior painting and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and attracts more renters. ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Interior painting and minor repairs — Fresh paint and repairs will make the home more appealing and functional. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natrona County School District #1
• NCES district ID: 5604510
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $55,217
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3437
• State rank: #32 of 41 in WY

Livability — Evansville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #9711

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Evansville, WY
• Population (ZIP): 3,856

Population outlook (Natrona County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,530 people
• By 2030: 107,084 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 124,838 · +26.7%
• By 2050: 143,617 · +45.8%
• By 2075: 192,378 · +95.2%
• By 2100: 228,435 · +131.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Natrona

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.6) · D 24.8% · R 73.5% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -34.4pp · 2024: -48.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.6 2020: R+47.6 2016: R+52.2 2012: R+41.1 2008: R+34.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.77%
• Current HPI: 195.2252
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $85,000 Zillow