Is 31107 Cass River Ln in Waller, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.1% cap rate and $-489/mo modeled cash flow at a $224,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 31107 Cass River Ln?

The modeled cap rate is 4.1% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,771/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 31.31

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.2/30.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Schools +3.0/10.0
Appreciation +2.9/10.0
1% rule +1.7/10.0
Rent growth +1.6/5.0
DSCR +0.5/10.0

$224,990

31107 Cass River Ln · Waller, TX 77484

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily · 114 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2-car garage $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 31107 Cass River Lane located in Mustang Meadows, a coming soon community in Waller! This one-story new construction home offers a spacious and modern floor plan, with wood-look vinyl throughout the main living areas and natural light that fills every corner of the home to create a bright, airy feel. Enter the kitchen and you'll be greeted with Miami White silestone countertops, 42-inch upper cabinets, a center island, and sleek stainless steel appliances with a gas range. The primary suite offers a serene place to retire to with a walk-in closet, semi-private water closet, dual vanity, and a walk-in shower. Enjoy other amazing highlights such as 5 panel interior doors, and silestone bathroom vanities. Surrounded by open space and located in a strong school district, Mustang Meadows provides a peaceful lifestyle with easy access to shopping, dining, outdoor recreation, and Hwy 290-making commutes and trips into Houston quick and simple.

Key facts

Walk in closet
Center island
Gas range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-489 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (13.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (21.3% below list).
Recommended offer: $177k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.3% in Waller — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1496 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,110 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.67% ✗
Cap rate: 4.08%
Cash-on-cash: -7.89%
DSCR: 0.65
GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $265,390
List price: $224,990
Delta: -15.22%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31035 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-3%)	1mo	$262,040	$186	75
31011 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-3%)	1mo	$263,040	$186	74
31026 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+6%)	0mo	$268,790	$175	71
31015 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+6%)	0mo	$209,990	$137	70
31318 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-3%)	7mo	$204,990	$145	69
31039 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+6%)	2mo	$270,290	$176	69
31218 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+6%)	4mo	$266,790	$174	68
31206 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+6%)	4mo	$267,790	$174	68
31235 Gayle Prairie Oaks	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+6%)	2mo	$269,990	$176	68
31247 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+6%)	5mo	$268,740	$175	65
31338 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+6%)	6mo	$234,990	$153	63
31322 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+6%)	8mo	$229,990	$150	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -33.6%
Equity multiple: -0.07×
Total profit: $-79,272
Equity at exit: $39,571

10-year hold

IRR: -64.7%
Equity multiple: -0.74×
Total profit: $-128,938
Equity at exit: $22,946

Cash invested: $74,309 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 23 active · 8 under contract
Months of supply: 11.5 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $246,540 ($163/sqft)
Median days on market: 80 d
This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +12.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77484

Home prices YoY: -1.0%
Rents YoY: -3.8%
Active inventory: 1496
Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,771 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,392
Tax est. 1.5%: −$332 /mo · $3,981/yr
Insurance: −$111
HOA: −$54
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
Net cashflow: $-489

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,390

Max offer price $194,648

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-305	-5% $-397	+0% $-489	+5% $-581	+10% $-672
Rent	-10% $-629	-5% $-559	+0% $-489	+5% $-419	+10% $-349
Rate	-1.0pp $-355	-0.5pp $-421	base $-489	+0.5pp $-558	+1.0pp $-628

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $66,348
Closing costs: $7,962
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Community managed by Sterling Management CompanyCommunity poolAnnual association fee of $650

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Security: Smoke detector(s)
Utilities: Public water
Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (Under construction)North-facing
Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundationBuilder: Brohn Homes
Exterior features: Fully fenced private yardBack yard fencingSprinkler/irrigation systemSubdivision settingViews and backs to greenbelt/parkAsphalt road surface

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenGas cooktopMicrowaveDisposal
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — approx. 12 x 14Bedroom (First floor) — approx. 10 x 11Bedroom (First floor) — approx. 10 x 11
Flooring: CarpetLaminate
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
Interior features: Entrance foyerHigh ceilingsSolid surface countersProgrammable thermostatInsulated doorsLow emissivity windowsVentilation for improved indoor air qualityENERGY STAR qualified appliances
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

HOA detail $54/mo · $648/yr

Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $224,990 Active 114 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $224,990 Active 112 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $224,990 Active 111 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $224,990 Active 110 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $224,990 Active 109 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $224,990 Active 106 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $224,990 Active 104 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $224,990 Active 103 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $224,990 Active 101 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $224,990 Active 99 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $224,990 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $224,990 Active 97 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $224,990 Active 96 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $224,990 Active 95 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $224,990 Active 93 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $224,990 Active 92 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $224,990 Active 91 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $224,990 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $224,990 Active 89 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $224,990 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $224,990 Active 87 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $224,990 Active 86 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $224,990 Active 85 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $224,990 Active 84 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $224,990 Active 82 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $224,990 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $224,990 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $224,990 Active 79 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $224,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $224,990 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $224,990 Active 76 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $224,990 Active 75 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $224,990 Active 74 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $224,990 Active 73 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $224,990 Active 72 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $224,990 Active 71 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $224,990 Active 69 DOM
2026-06-21

pricedays on market $224,990 Active 66 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $221,990 Active 63 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $221,990 Active 62 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $221,990 Active 61 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $221,990 Active 60 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $221,990 Active 58 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $221,990 Active 54 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $221,990 Active 53 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $221,990 Active 52 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $221,990 Active 49 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $221,990 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $221,990 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $221,990 Active 46 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $21,253
− Mortgage interest: −$14,866
− Property taxes: −$3,981
− Insurance: −$1,327
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,700
− Management: −$1,700
− HOA: −$648
− Depreciation: −$7,720
Taxable loss: −$10,690

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,565
After-tax cash flow: $-3,301/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home in Mustang Meadows, Waller, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious and modern floor plan with wood-look vinyl flooring, stainless steel appliances, and a well-maintained exterior. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from landscaping and painting to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint can make a home look more appealing and increase its value ↑
Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves the home's aesthetic and can increase its value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary I T Holleman El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Waller ISD
NCES district ID: 4844430
Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income: $58,911
Composite: 29.12/100
National rank: #6593
State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Waller

Score: 61/100
State rank: #1003
US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 14,348
Household income: $81,250
Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
Current HPI: 397.85
Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+1.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

2026-06-20 Price Changed $224,990 Zillow
2026-06-19 Price Changed $224,990 HARMLS
2026-06-19 Price Changed $223,990 HARMLS
2026-06-05 Price Changed $223,990 Zillow
2026-04-16 Listed $221,990 Zillow
2026-04-16 Listed $221,990 HARMLS
2026-04-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-04-07 Listed $221,990 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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