4210 Oats St · Houston, TX 77020

$185,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1940 5,000 sqft lot Est $206k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1940

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Approximately 1,104 living area; Built in 1940; Slate roof; Block foundation
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Wooded lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10x10); Second bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10x10); Third bedroom on the second floor (approx. 10x10)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms; Seller disclosure available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fleming Middle (math 10% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 384 students, 97% FRL); Wheatley H S (math 17% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 643 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,394 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.27%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,448
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4314 Rawley St	0.05mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,048 (-5%)	9mo	$195,900	$187	76
4214 Quitman St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,128 (+2%)	0mo	$174,999	$155	69
4803 Farmer St	0.39mi	2/1.0	1,200 (+9%)	7mo	$140,000	$117	61
3053 Noble St	0.71mi	2/1.0	1,200 (+9%)	1mo	$64,497	$54	52
5114 Farmer St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,036 (-6%)	7mo	$215,000	$208	49
2405 Pannell St	0.53mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,230 (+11%)	3mo	$99,500	$81	47
5214 Hershe St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,207 (+9%)	7mo	$164,000	$136	46
2114 Des Chaumes St	0.68mi	2/2.5	1,000 (-9%)	10mo	$235,000	$235	38
2112 Des Chaumes St	0.68mi	2/2.5	955 (-14%)	2mo	$239,900	$251	38
2116 Des Chaumes St	0.68mi	2/2.5	955 (-14%)	5mo	$240,000	$251	36
4705 Coke St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,212 (+10%)	9mo	$245,000	$202	33
4034 Wylie St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,246 (+13%)	6mo	$194,000	$156	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $88,064
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.30×
• Total profit: $274,525
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77020

• Home prices YoY: 29.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,354 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $2,996/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $-227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,642

Max offer price $144,850

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-123	-5% $-175	+0% $-227	+5% $-280	+10% $-332
Rent	-10% $-334	-5% $-281	+0% $-227	+5% $-174	+10% $-120
Rate	-1.0pp $-134	-0.5pp $-180	base $-227	+0.5pp $-275	+1.0pp $-324

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3730 Lyons Ave Unit 216 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	45d	1	0.29mi
1513 Cage St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,550	$1.06	45d	1	0.49mi
3502 Campbell St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	725	$800	$1.10	45d	1	0.52mi
3031 Sumpter St Unit 50 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	732	$1,200	$1.64	25d	1	0.66mi
5408 Market St Unit 5408-1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	730	$900	$1.23	6d	1	0.76mi
5605 Mulvey St Unit 1019610P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1410	$4,376	$3.10	0d	1	0.83mi
2105 Sam Wilson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1416	$6,750	$4.77	45d	1	0.83mi
2704 Sam Wilson St Unit 1391353P Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1001	$2,082	$2.08	0d	1	1.03mi
1714 Mary St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	45d	1	1.11mi
3805 Wipprecht St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	768	$1,100	$1.43	20d	1	1.17mi
3813 Wipprecht St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	25d	1	1.19mi
3806 Wipprecht St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$700	$0.93	15d	1	1.20mi
3814 Wipprecht St Unit 18B Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$700	$0.93	17d	1	1.21mi
5504 Morwood St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$850	$1.13	25d	1	1.25mi
5510 Morwood St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$650	$0.87	25d	1	1.27mi
5514 Morgood St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$650	$0.87	45d	1	1.29mi
800 Middle St Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,320	$1.32	6d	1	1.33mi
5436 Makeig St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$650	$0.87	25d	1	1.38mi
5430 Makeig St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$650	$0.87	25d	1	1.40mi
4203 Hirsch Rd Unit 5 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	758	$950	$1.25	45d	1	1.41mi
4203 Hirsch Rd Unit 13 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	758	$975	$1.29	0d	1	1.41mi
5462 Makeig St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$650	$0.87	25d	1	1.41mi
91 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$3,094	$3.55	22d	16	1.44mi
91 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.5	970	$2,713	$2.80	0d	69	1.44mi
1556 Leona St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	905	$1,505	$1.66	45d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $185,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,996 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$390/yr (+$32/mo · 13.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,247
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,996
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,300
• − Management: −$1,300
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$6,018
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,444
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,686
• Household income: $50,119
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 969.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Black 24% Two or more races 22% White 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 59% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.64%
• Current HPI: 246.5578
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+587.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-07-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-03-05 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-23 Price Changed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-14 Price Changed $375,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-16 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-08-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-06-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-05-16 Listed $26,900 HARMLS
• 2006-07-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,996 · -5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.