6403 Birch Ln · Seminole Manor, FL 33462

$169,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,750 sqft · Manufactured · 215 Days on market

Built 2004

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SELLER OFFERING 3 MONTHS PAID LOT RENT AT CLOSING! Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath modular home featuring a rare 2-car garage and a spacious open-concept layout that blends the kitchen, living, and dining areas perfectly for everyday comfort and entertaining. The split floorplan offers excellent privacy, with a generous primary suite and well-sized guest rooms. The home comes partially furnished for added convenience, allowing buyers to move in with ease. Located in Maralago Cay, a gated 55+ community known for its friendly atmosphere and resort-style amenities, residents enjoy two heated pools, a clubhouse, fitness center, organized activities, and beautifully maintained grounds

Key facts

• Gated community
• Heated pools
• Clubhouse

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPLIT FLOORPLAN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• GATED COMMUNITY
• HEATED POOLS
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed (pet restrictions possible)
• HOA & community: Senior community; Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, fitness center, billiard room, game room, library, community room, tennis courts, shuffleboard court, and on-site manager; Association maintains grounds, trash, and common areas

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces and garage door opener; 2 covered spaces; 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Three-phase electric; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Entry-level living area; Property faces east
• Construction: Modular construction; Composition/shingle roof; Resale condition; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Porch; Interior lot; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Walk-in closet(s); Split bedroom layout; Partially furnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area inside; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#711 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Starlight Cove Elementary School (math 40% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,684 of 2,144 statewide, top 79%, 737 students, 77% FRL); Tradewinds Middle School (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #468 of 571 statewide, top 82%, 912 students, 74% FRL); Santaluces Community High (math 22% / reading 39%, grade F, #434 of 667 statewide, top 66%, 2,675 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 52% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Palm Beach average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,049/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 1852% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.28%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $54,742
• Equity at exit: $25,273

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.44×
• Total profit: $163,480
• Equity at exit: $14,655

Cash invested: $47,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33462

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,049 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$889
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,542/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$640
• Net cashflow: $1,237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,483

Max offer price $169,500

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,354	-5% $1,296	+0% $1,237	+5% $1,178	+10% $1,120
Rent	-10% $996	-5% $1,117	+0% $1,237	+5% $1,357	+10% $1,478
Rate	-1.0pp $1,322	-0.5pp $1,280	base $1,237	+0.5pp $1,193	+1.0pp $1,148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,375
• Closing costs: $5,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3883 Island Club Cir W Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	1308	$2,400	$1.83	18d	1	0.48mi
6040 Lace Wood Cir Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1326	$2,799	$2.11	25d	1	0.50mi
4091 Plumbago Pl Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1816	$1,300	$0.72	25d	1	0.57mi
4350 Peregrine Way Lake Worth, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$3,119	$3.04	0d	17	0.58mi
493 Forestview Dr Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1701	$2,300	$1.35	6d	1	0.62mi
4735 Blue Pine Cir Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1732	$3,500	$2.02	25d	1	0.79mi
4648 Silver Saw Ln Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	1718	$3,300	$1.92	12d	1	0.79mi
7093 Middlebury Dr Unit 7093 Boynton Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1470	$3,000	$2.04	25d	1	0.85mi
3327 Sapphire Rd Lake Worth, FL	4.0	3.0	1377	$3,400	$2.47	13d	1	0.85mi
3327 Sapphire Rd Lake Worth, FL	4.0	3.0	1377	$3,350	$2.43	3d	1	0.85mi
3841 Aspen Leaf Dr Boynton Beach, FL	4.0	2.5	2359	$4,000	$1.70	25d	1	0.85mi
7132 Colony Club Dr Lake Worth, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1087	$2,919	$2.69	0d	15	0.86mi
7398 Willow Springs Cir E Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,811	$2.02	0d	1	0.98mi
6909 Blue Skies Dr Lake Worth, FL	2.0	2.5	1293	$2,600	$2.01	25d	1	0.99mi
4951 Mallory St Unit 4951 Greenacres, FL	3.0	2.5	1309	$2,700	$2.06	23d	1	1.03mi
4983 Pinemore Ln Unit 4983 Greenacres, FL	3.0	2.5	1628	$2,900	$1.78	25d	1	1.03mi
4947 Grinnell St Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	1309	$2,850	$2.18	25d	1	1.06mi
4725 Via Bari Lake Worth, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1150	$2,829	$2.46	4d	10	1.07mi
4302 Colony View Dr Unit 4302 Greenacres, FL	3.0	2.5	1851	$3,000	$1.62	22d	1	1.08mi
3771 Newport Ave Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1795	$3,500	$1.95	20d	1	1.10mi
5 Heather Trace Dr Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$3,100	$2.13	23d	1	1.21mi
6941 Boston Dr Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1527	$3,299	$2.16	25d	1	1.22mi
6941 Boston Dr Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1527	$3,399	$2.23	22d	1	1.22mi
4259 Wood Ride Unit E Boynton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1240	$2,350	$1.90	9d	1	1.25mi
4657 Meyerson Pl Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	1635	$2,900	$1.77	22d	1	1.29mi
4657 Meyerson Pl Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	1635	$2,900	$1.77	25d	1	1.29mi
4665 Meyerson Pl Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	1900	$3,000	$1.58	25d	1	1.30mi
7640 Forest Green Ln Unit 7640 Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1696	$3,500	$2.06	12d	1	1.30mi
7640 Forest Green Ln Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1696	$3,500	$2.06	25d	1	1.30mi
1239 Sussex St Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1436	$3,100	$2.16	25d	1	1.34mi
1239 Sussex St Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1436	$3,100	$2.16	21d	1	1.34mi
7705 Forest Green Ln Boynton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1379	$3,200	$2.32	18d	1	1.37mi
7705 Forest Green Ln Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1379	$3,200	$2.32	25d	1	1.37mi
54 Egret Way Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1608	$3,500	$2.18	3d	1	1.37mi
1071 Fosters Mill Rd Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,900	$1.80	6d	1	1.39mi
4220 Grove Park Ln Unit 1 Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1406	$3,400	$2.42	5d	1	1.40mi
4220 Grove Park Ln Unit 1 Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1406	$3,600	$2.56	25d	1	1.40mi
3901 Medford Ct Boynton Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1374	$2,650	$1.93	25d	1	1.41mi
3901 Medford Ct Boynton Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1374	$2,650	$1.93	6d	1	1.41mi
300 John F Kennedy Dr #8 Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$3,200	$1.87	3d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,500 Active 215 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,500 Active 212 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,500 Active 211 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,500 Active 210 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,500 Active 209 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,500 Active 207 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,500 Active 203 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,500 Active 201 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,500 Active 198 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,500 Active 197 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,500 Active 195 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,500 Active 194 DOM
13. 2025-11-17
    listed $169,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,495
• − Property taxes: −$2,542
• − Insurance: −$848
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,927
• − Management: −$2,927
• − Depreciation: −$4,931
• Taxable income: $12,914
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,099
• After-tax cash flow: $11,744/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Seminole Manor

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #711
• US rank: #15076

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,371
• Household income: $73,997
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1852.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 14% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -295.48%
• Current HPI: 361.5391
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.09%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-17 Listed $169,500 Beaches MLS