2121 33rd St · North Sarasota, FL 34234

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1960 4,305 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newtown Farms! Located minutes to downtown Sarasota. Ranch style home with great room floor plan. This 3 bedroom 1 bath home features tile throughout. Spacious screened lanai and has a greenbelt view. Separate utility room closet off lanai. Updates include new interior paint and a new roof. See attachment for PAS requirements and WFHM offer submittal information in MLS document section.

Key facts

• 4,305 sq ft lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 41 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned RMF2; Lot about 0.1 acre; Living area reported as 816 square feet
• HOA & community: Street lights in the community; Pets allowed; No association fees indicated; No association approval required

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; High-speed internet available; Cable available and connected; Electricity available and connected; Phone available; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story; South-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Completed condition
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Asphalt and concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Ice maker; Water purifier; Exhaust fan; Solid surface counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Vaulted ceiling; High ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; Exhaust fan; Lighting
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Electric water heater; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#349 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: commute D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.1%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.56%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-13,098
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,392
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34234

• Rents YoY: -3.1%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,076 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,309/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,570

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $209,900 649-char remark
17. 2026-05-08
    listed $219,900 Active 649-char remark
18. 2016-01-13
    soldstatus $760,000
19. 2015-05-05
    soldstatus $23,850 Sold 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Newtown Farms! Located minutes to downtown Sarasota. Ranch style home with great room floor plan. This 3 bedroom 1 bath home features tile throughout. Spacious screened lanai and has a greenbelt view. Separate utility room closet off lanai. Updates include new interior paint and a new roof. See attachment for PAS requirements and WFHM offer submittal information in MLS document section.

20. 2015-03-20
    status Pending 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Newtown Farms! Located minutes to downtown Sarasota. Ranch style home with great room floor plan. This 3 bedroom 1 bath home features tile throughout. Spacious screened lanai and has a greenbelt view. Separate utility room closet off lanai. Updates include new interior paint and a new roof. See attachment for PAS requirements and WFHM offer submittal information in MLS document section.

21. 2015-03-16
    historical Contingent - REO Waiting For Signatures 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Newtown Farms! Located minutes to downtown Sarasota. Ranch style home with great room floor plan. This 3 bedroom 1 bath home features tile throughout. Spacious screened lanai and has a greenbelt view. Separate utility room closet off lanai. Updates include new interior paint and a new roof. See attachment for PAS requirements and WFHM offer submittal information in MLS document section.

22. 2015-03-08
    listed $26,500 Active 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Newtown Farms! Located minutes to downtown Sarasota. Ranch style home with great room floor plan. This 3 bedroom 1 bath home features tile throughout. Spacious screened lanai and has a greenbelt view. Separate utility room closet off lanai. Updates include new interior paint and a new roof. See attachment for PAS requirements and WFHM offer submittal information in MLS document section.

23. 2005-05-02
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,309 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,659 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$351/yr (+$29/mo · 26.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,911
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,309
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,993
• − Management: −$1,993
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $1,604
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$385
• After-tax cash flow: $4,407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Sarasota

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #6050

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Sarasota, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,986
• Household income: $57,288
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Hispanic 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.06%
• Current HPI: 305.6629
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.15%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+207.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $209,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $219,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $760,000 Public Records
• 2015-05-05 Sold (MLS) $23,850 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-16 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-08 Listed $26,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,309 · -6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.