15010 SW 24th Cir · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$289,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,751 sqft · Land · 139 Days on market

Built 2025 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Thoughtfully designed for everyday comfort, this home offers 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a functional layout ideal for families and entertaining. The primary suite features a generous walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms include built-in closets providing ample storage throughout. The open-concept floor plan creates a seamless connection between the living and dining areas, filled with natural light and enhanced by sliding glass doors leading to a covered rear porch—perfect for year-round relaxation or gatherings. The kitchen is both elegant and practical, showcasing solid wood cabinetry, stone countertops, and modern appliances, creating an inviting space f

Key facts

• Solid wood cabinetry
• Stone countertops
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• BUILT-IN CLOSETS
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED REAR PORCH
• SOLID WOOD CABINETRY
• STONE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total living area approximately 1,751 (builder model 1751); Building area total listed as 2,317; Lot about 0.23 acres (cleared); No lease restrictions noted
• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity available; Water and sewer available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; New construction; Faces west; Residential zoning (R1); Completed condition
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by LAKESHORE LIRA INVESTMENTS CORPORATION
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Patio; Exterior lighting; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Cleared lot; Paved surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Solid wood cabinets; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (30.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 43% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,575 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 1,017 students, 73% FRL); Horizon Academy At Marion Oaks (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 1,067 students, 68% FRL); Dunnellon High School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,350 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1376 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $290k implies a 728% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,693 (30.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.96%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-61,484
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-87,841
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1376
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,017 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,021/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,185

Max offer price $266,443

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $31	-5% $-51	+0% $-133	+5% $-215	+10% $-297
Rent	-10% $-292	-5% $-212	+0% $-133	+5% $-53	+10% $27
Rate	-1.0pp $13	-0.5pp $-59	base $-133	+0.5pp $-208	+1.0pp $-284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2603 SW 152nd Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	1.5	1402	$1,550	$1.11	15d	1	0.29mi
405 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,700	$1.08	15d	1	0.35mi
405 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,699	$1.08	23d	1	0.35mi
2598 SW 147th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,750	$1.21	15d	1	0.37mi
15353 SW 21st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,200	$1.30	15d	1	0.39mi
14693 SW 21st Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,675	$1.20	15d	1	0.39mi
2705 SW 153rd Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,745	$1.10	23d	1	0.40mi
2600 SW 146th Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1896	$2,100	$1.11	15d	1	0.42mi
14587 SW 25th Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,750	$1.11	23d	1	0.50mi
2584 SW 154th Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,975	$1.58	23d	1	0.51mi
2632 SW 145th Place Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,675	$1.13	15d	1	0.57mi
2240 SW 156th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,600	$1.02	23d	1	0.60mi
2730 SW 145th Place Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,725	$1.26	23d	1	0.61mi
15434 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,780	$1.27	15d	1	0.64mi
15741 SW 23rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,595	$1.19	15d	1	0.69mi
15701 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$1,900	$1.17	23d	1	0.69mi
15761 SW 23rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1229	$2,000	$1.63	23d	1	0.70mi
2673 SW 156th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,950	$1.05	15d	1	0.71mi
3011 SW 140th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,695	$1.27	23d	1	0.71mi
2500 SW 156th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	23d	1	0.72mi
2161 SW 153rd Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$2,000	$1.27	23d	1	0.75mi
2725 SW 158th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$2,000	$1.27	15d	1	0.77mi
14245 SW 28th Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,900	$1.07	15d	1	0.91mi
2211 SW 153rd Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,000	$1.16	23d	1	0.94mi
16008 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,400	$1.37	23d	1	0.99mi
2870 SW 143rd Place Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	2040	$1,850	$0.91	23d	1	1.03mi
3500 SW 150th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1789	$1,750	$0.98	15d	1	1.03mi
15415 SW 34th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,895	$1.15	23d	1	1.03mi
16015 SW 29th Court Rd Unit 2 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,450	$1.10	23d	1	1.10mi
16124 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,715	$1.26	15d	1	1.15mi
1631 SW 160th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,795	$1.11	15d	1	1.18mi
16200 SW 21st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,800	$1.14	23d	1	1.19mi
16252 SW 27th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	15d	1	1.20mi
529 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1883	$2,200	$1.17	15d	1	1.22mi
15831 SW 34th Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,715	$1.22	15d	1	1.22mi
2670 162nd Ln Unit 2670 Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,000	$1.16	23d	1	1.25mi
14007 SW 30th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,675	$0.98	23d	1	1.26mi
2711 SW 162nd Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1786	$2,150	$1.20	15d	1	1.27mi
2660 SW 162nd Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,999	$1.13	23d	1	1.33mi
2836 SW 161st Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,675	$1.23	15d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-24
   price $289,900
3. 2025-12-19
   listed $309,000 Active
4. 2010-04-12
   soldstatus $35,000
5. 2006-05-24
   soldstatus $33,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,021 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,406 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,385/yr (+$115/mo · 135.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$1,021
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,936
• − Management: −$1,936
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$6,812
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,635
• After-tax cash flow: $42/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+778.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $289,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Listed $309,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,021 · +166.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.