209 Lawrence Rd · Artesia, NM 88210

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 1997 Fair condition 5.43 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come take a look at this great Location!! This quiet area has beautiful farm views. 5.43 Acres of land located just North of Artesia with large beautiful fenced back yard. This home is reasonably priced and ready for you to move in. Water well and coop water. Large open floor plan with a fireplace, formal dining area, and high ceilings. 3 bedrooms 2 baths and a huge oversized attached garage/shop with lots of storage. The large covered deck is amazing for back porch sittin! This property allows horses and 4H animals and don't forget the large chicken ccop! It's ready to go! Call your realtor today to be the first one in.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Coop water
• Fenced back yard

Tags

• 5.43 ACRES
• FENCED BACK YARD
• WATER WELL
• COOP WATER
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $375 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#75 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Artesia Public Schools (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #17 of 95 in NM (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 156 units permitted in Eddy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Eddy County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.46%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-16,395
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $16,679
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88210

• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,653 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   listed $249,000 Active
3. 2024-11-15
   soldstatus Closed 630-char remark

   Show marketing remark (630 chars)

   Come take a look at this great Location!! This quiet area has beautiful farm views. 5.43 Acres of land located just North of Artesia with large beautiful fenced back yard. This home is reasonably priced and ready for you to move in. Water well and coop water. Large open floor plan with a fireplace, formal dining area, and high ceilings. 3 bedrooms 2 baths and a huge oversized attached garage/shop with lots of storage. The large covered deck is amazing for back porch sittin! This property allows horses and 4H animals and don't forget the large chicken ccop! It's ready to go! Call your realtor today to be the first one in.

4. 2024-11-04
   status Pending 630-char remark

   Show marketing remark (630 chars)

   Come take a look at this great Location!! This quiet area has beautiful farm views. 5.43 Acres of land located just North of Artesia with large beautiful fenced back yard. This home is reasonably priced and ready for you to move in. Water well and coop water. Large open floor plan with a fireplace, formal dining area, and high ceilings. 3 bedrooms 2 baths and a huge oversized attached garage/shop with lots of storage. The large covered deck is amazing for back porch sittin! This property allows horses and 4H animals and don't forget the large chicken ccop! It's ready to go! Call your realtor today to be the first one in.

5. 2024-10-02
   listed $215,000 Active 630-char remark

   Show marketing remark (630 chars)

   Come take a look at this great Location!! This quiet area has beautiful farm views. 5.43 Acres of land located just North of Artesia with large beautiful fenced back yard. This home is reasonably priced and ready for you to move in. Water well and coop water. Large open floor plan with a fireplace, formal dining area, and high ceilings. 3 bedrooms 2 baths and a huge oversized attached garage/shop with lots of storage. The large covered deck is amazing for back porch sittin! This property allows horses and 4H animals and don't forget the large chicken ccop! It's ready to go! Call your realtor today to be the first one in.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,842
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,547
• − Management: −$2,547
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $576
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$138
• After-tax cash flow: $4,367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, including painting and roof work, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major paint — several areas of peeling paint
• Moderate roof — visible wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both roof — improves home's value and extends its lifespan

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
paint · several areas of peeling paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · visible wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$18,000–65,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both roof — improves home's value and extends its lifespan ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Artesia Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500120
• Math proficiency: 29% —
• Reading proficiency: 42% —
• Median HH income: $51,397
• Composite: 33.48/100
• National rank: #10522
• State rank: #17 of 95 in NM

Livability — Artesia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #15300

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Eddy County · 58,370 people
• City population: 18,542
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• Population (ZIP): 18,542
• Household income: $79,632
• Rent vs Own: 28.7% rent · 71.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 159.0

Population outlook (Eddy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,505 people
• By 2030: 69,797 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 79,191 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 89,199 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 115,829 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 129,336 · +97.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 40% Two or more races 19% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Eddy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.9) · D 21.4% · R 77.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -55.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.9 2020: R+51.8 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -238.85%
• Current HPI: 115.6107
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+15.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $249,000 NMMLS
• 2024-11-15 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2024-11-04 Pending — NMMLS
• 2024-10-02 Listed $215,000 NMMLS