30828 Dobbin Huffsmith Rd · Magnolia, TX 77354

$700,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,974 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 225 Days on market

Built 1999 1.00 ac lot $235/sqft · 18% below area Est $855k · 18% under ↓ 59% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.1/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unrestricted 1-acre property in a rapidly growing area of Magnolia! Surrounded by new developments including Moore Landing and Woodhavyn, bringing over 1,700 new residents to the immediate area. Located near the corner of Dobbin-Huffsmith Rd and Moore Rd, this property offers prime exposure and endless potential for residential or commercial use. Excellent visibility and accessibility in one of Magnolia’s fastest-growing corridors - ideal for small business, investment, or future redevelopment. Property is completely unrestricted with no zoning restrictions, allowing for residential, commercial, or mixed-use possibilities.

Key facts

• Excellent visibility
• 1 acre property
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• 1 ACRE PROPERTY
• EXCELLENT VISIBILITY
• NO ZONING RESTRICTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $700k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-31k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (64.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (66.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (66.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.9% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $75k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $70k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$120k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($616k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,554 (66.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 66% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.34% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.61%
• DSCR: 0.31
• GRM: 24.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $855,370
• List price: $700,000
• Delta: -18.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29735 Brushy Gables Dr	0.71mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,973 (-0%)	0mo	$447,900	$151	62
29739 Shady Glade Ln	0.67mi	4/3.5	3,098 (+4%)	2mo	$654,000	$211	58
29743 Brushy Gables Dr	0.70mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,992 (+1%)	6mo	$499,990	$167	57
29734 Shady Glade Ln	0.69mi	4/3.5	2,814 (-5%)	3mo	$599,990	$213	55
29719 Brushy Gables Dr	0.75mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,992 (+1%)	6mo	$494,990	$165	54
30726 Lila Grove Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0	3,139 (+6%)	4mo	$658,000	$210	52
29803 Edgewater Dr	0.74mi	4/3.5	3,137 (+6%)	5mo	$868,000	$277	50
29795 Brushy Gables Dr	0.68mi	4/3.5	2,612 (-12%)	4mo	$469,990	$180	43
29764 Brushy Gables Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,694 (-9%)	6mo	$474,900	$176	41
29739 Brushy Gables Dr	0.70mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,241 (+9%)	5mo	$574,900	$177	39
29731 Brushy Gables Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,545 (-14%)	1mo	$424,900	$167	38
29748 Brushy Gables Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,574 (-13%)	4mo	$449,900	$175	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $212,431
• Equity at exit: $630,615

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.78×
• Total profit: $741,655
• Equity at exit: $1,359,946

Cash invested: $196,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 24.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,346 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,671
• Tax from tax record: −$441 /mo · $5,286/yr
• Insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-2,550

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,573

Max offer price $249,517

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $175,000
• Closing costs: $21,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12035 Noble Wood Village DR Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1979	$2,150	$1.09	44d	1	0.30mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $700,000 Active 225 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $700,000 Active 224 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $700,000 Active 223 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $700,000 Active 222 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $700,000 Active 220 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $700,000 Active 216 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $700,000 Active 215 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $700,000 Active 214 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $700,000 Active 211 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $700,000 Active 210 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $700,000 Active 209 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $700,000 Active 208 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $700,000 Active 207 DOM
14. 2025-11-05
    historical

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Unrestricted 1-acre property in a rapidly growing area of Magnolia! Surrounded by new developments including Moore Landing and Woodhavyn, bringing over 1,700 new residents to the immediate area. Located near the corner of Dobbin-Huffsmith Rd and Moore Rd, this property offers prime exposure and endless potential for residential or commercial use. Excellent visibility and accessibility in one of Magnolia’s fastest-growing corridors - ideal for small business, investment, or future redevelopment. Property is completely unrestricted with no zoning restrictions, allowing for residential, commercial, or mixed-use possibilities.

15. 2025-11-05
    listed $700,000 Active 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Unrestricted 1-acre property in a rapidly growing area of Magnolia! Surrounded by new developments including Moore Landing and Woodhavyn, bringing over 1,700 new residents to the immediate area. Located near the corner of Dobbin-Huffsmith Rd and Moore Rd, this property offers prime exposure and endless potential for residential or commercial use. Excellent visibility and accessibility in one of Magnolia’s fastest-growing corridors - ideal for small business, investment, or future redevelopment. Property is completely unrestricted with no zoning restrictions, allowing for residential, commercial, or mixed-use possibilities.

16. 2025-08-05
    soldstatus
17. 2025-05-06
    price $1,500,000
18. 2025-03-25
    listed $1,700,000 Active
19. 2018-07-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,286 · $441/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,810 · $1,068/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,524/yr (+$627/mo · 142.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,146
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,211
• − Property taxes: −$5,286
• − Insurance: −$3,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,252
• − Management: −$2,252
• − Depreciation: −$20,364
• Taxable loss: −$44,718
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,732
• After-tax cash flow: $-19,869/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-58.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-05 Listed $700,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $1,500,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-25 Listed $1,700,000 HARMLS
• 2018-07-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,286 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.