1518 Castle Rd · Odessa, TX 79762

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1956 7,579 sqft lot Est $224k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity for first-time home buyers or investors! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features recent interior paint and updated flooring, giving it a fresh, clean feel. The functional layout offers comfortable living space, and the 1-car garage provides added convenience and storage. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and everyday amenities. Whether you're looking for a place to call home or a solid addition to your investment portfolio, this property is worth a look.

Key facts

• Updated flooring
• 1-car garage
• Functional layout

Tags

• RECENT INTERIOR PAINT
• UPDATED FLOORING
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• 1-CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 1 covered space; Additional parking pad (total 1 parking space listed)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick veneer and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built with solar energy generation
• Exterior features: Patio; Landscaped yard; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Smoke detectors; Solar panels
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($409/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Burnet El (math 7% / reading 14%, grade F, #4,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 98%, 389 students, 77% FRL); Bonham Middle (math 9% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 867 students, 65% FRL); Permian H S (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,978 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,723 (9.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.73%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,764
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2908 Dawn Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-10%)	23mo	$199,900	$174	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-33,122
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-37,557
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79762

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,807 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,145/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,764

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1212 E Century Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1359	$1,300	$0.96	21d	1	0.41mi
1308 Alpine St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,195	$1.22	13d	1	0.42mi
3624 Walnut Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1488	$1,950	$1.31	44d	1	0.43mi
2702 S Colonial Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1490	$1,500	$1.01	13d	1	0.45mi
1202 E 42nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	44d	1	0.48mi
2901 Nabors Ln Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1508	$1,800	$1.19	13d	1	0.62mi
2901 Nabors Ln Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1374	$1,800	$1.31	21d	1	0.62mi
2826 Hilltop Dr Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1307	$2,000	$1.53	13d	1	0.66mi
4233 Bonham Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	44d	1	0.67mi
2905 Byron Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1816	$2,400	$1.32	13d	1	0.68mi
4217 Redbud Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.5	1203	$2,200	$1.83	13d	1	0.69mi
4312 N Dixie Blvd Unit 72C Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,450	$1.48	44d	1	0.73mi
4256 Bonham Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1261	$1,600	$1.27	21d	1	0.74mi
1813 Petroleum Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,700	$1.31	21d	1	0.81mi
3812 E Everglade Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1861	$2,500	$1.34	21d	1	0.87mi
1409 E 23rd St Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0	1032	$2,400	$2.33	44d	1	0.88mi
2801 Redbud Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,800	$1.16	13d	1	0.91mi
4425 Conley Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.5	1584	$2,200	$1.39	21d	1	0.92mi
1804 Cord St Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	960	$1,700	$1.77	44d	1	0.92mi
3902 Englewood Cir Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1280	$1,445	$1.13	13d	1	0.93mi
3824 Englewood Cir Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1150	$1,295	$1.13	13d	1	0.95mi
3904 Englewood Cir Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0	1280	$1,445	$1.13	13d	1	0.95mi
3907 Englewood Cir Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1170	$1,395	$1.19	13d	1	0.97mi
3802 Englewood Cir Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1150	$1,295	$1.13	13d	1	1.00mi
1529 E 52nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1275	$2,200	$1.73	44d	1	1.03mi
1613 E 52nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1122	$2,200	$1.96	13d	1	1.03mi
3843 Penbrook St Odessa, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,584	$1.79	13d	24	1.04mi
3843 Penbrook St Odessa, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,584	$1.79	21d	17	1.04mi
1401 E 18th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,000	$1.18	13d	1	1.06mi
1311 E 52nd St Unit 1 Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,950	$1.38	21d	1	1.07mi
1119 E 51st St Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1169	$1,500	$1.28	13d	1	1.09mi
2220 E 52nd St Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	959	$1,770	$1.85	13d	7	1.19mi
2230 E 52nd St Unit B1 Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	972	$1,450	$1.49	21d	1	1.20mi
2608 Cumberland Rd Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,500	$1.07	13d	1	1.22mi
3616 E 30th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,995	$1.39	44d	1	1.28mi
3727 Andrews Hwy Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	13d	18	1.31mi
5335 N Grandview Ave Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	792	$1,275	$1.61	44d	5	1.33mi
3939 Tanglewood Ln Odessa, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,595	$1.93	13d	9	1.38mi
4315 Esmond Dr Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	839	$1,550	$1.85	21d	22	1.42mi
3805 Wimberley St Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	1210	$2,800	$2.31	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 484-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $199,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,145 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,658 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$514/yr (+$43/mo · 16.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,145
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,735
• − Management: −$1,735
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,940
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$706
• After-tax cash flow: $1,114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,927
• Household income: $75,272
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1477.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 38% Two or more races 22% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.97%
• Current HPI: 229.6022
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.36%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $199,900 ODMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,145 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.