619 W Elm St · Aurora, MO 65605

$124,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Other public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1977 0.26 ac lot ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Are you looking for a home at a cheaper price that you can put your own touches on or looking for a flip house, this is the one for you. House is being sold as is. Unaware of heating and cooling sources and if they're operational.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1977

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Built area includes 1,404 sq. ft. above grade; Total building area listed as 2,808 sq. ft.
• Exterior features: Public maintained road frontage on a city street; Lot dimensions approximately 84.3 x 132; Lot about 0.26 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Has a view

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-329/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $95k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.0% in Aurora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#710 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Aurora R-VIII (town): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #244 of 324 in MO (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pate Early Childhood Ctr. (497 students, 66% FRL); Aurora Jr. High (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #321 of 391 statewide, top 82%, 283 students, 62% FRL); Aurora High (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #218 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 573 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 67 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,000 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.94%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-22,025
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-21,584
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65605

• Home prices YoY: -4.5%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $851/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $985

Max offer price $120,053

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $43	-5% $8	+0% $-27	+5% $-63	+10% $-98
Rent	-10% $-102	-5% $-65	+0% $-27	+5% $10	+10% $48
Rate	-1.0pp $35	-0.5pp $4	base $-27	+0.5pp $-60	+1.0pp $-93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
730 E Springfield St Aurora, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	25d	1	1.15mi
221 N Park Ave Unit B Aurora, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	15d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $124,900 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $124,900 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $124,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $124,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $124,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-05-12
   listed $149,900 Active 230-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $851 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$361/yr (+$30/mo · 42.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$851
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$912
• − Management: −$912
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$2,529
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$607
• After-tax cash flow: $278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aurora R-VIII
• NCES district ID: 2904020
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $37,036
• Composite: 27.84/100
• National rank: #6883
• State rank: #244 of 324 in MO

Livability — Aurora

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #710
• US rank: #22927

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aurora, MO
• Population (ZIP): 11,611

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,142 people
• By 2030: 36,212 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 34,080 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 31,621 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 25,987 · -30.0%
• By 2100: 20,151 · -45.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.8) · D 17.6% · R 81.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.8pp toward R · 2008: -37.1pp · 2024: -63.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.8 2020: R+62.6 2016: R+61.1 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+37.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.62%
• Current HPI: 267.2335
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $124,900 SOMO
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $134,900 SOMO
• 2026-05-12 Listed $149,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $851 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.