312 Mistletoe Dr · Marlin, TX 76661

$82,599

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 503 Days on market

Built 1955 10,846 sqft lot $80/sqft · 6% above area Est $78k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

STARTER HOME NEAR WACO! Discover this unique two-bedroom, one bathroom home is located in Marlin, TX, just south of Waco! The house will have a NEW ROOF. The lot is situated in a prime location that provides easy access to major highways and is conveniently close to local shops, eateries, and schools. It is being sold AS IS but has lots of potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• Easy access
• Eateries
• Prime location

Tags

• PRIME LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS
• LOCAL SHOPS
• EATERIES
• SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $83k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $267 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 5.7% in Marlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,146 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marlin ISD (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #779 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Falls County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($571 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Falls County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 503 days — a 12% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,687 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 503 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.85%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,121
• List price: $82,599
• Delta: 5.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
117 W Anders St W #1	0.34mi	2/1.0	940 (-9%)	4mo	$51,500	$55	65
309 Louise St	0.66mi	1/1.0 (-1)	972 (-6%)	0mo	$99,000	$102	54
701 Curtis St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,032 (0%)	14mo	$169,000	$164	53
213 Capps St	0.72mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,004 (-3%)	11mo	$79,000	$79	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $32,168
• Equity at exit: $42,705

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.66×
• Total profit: $84,554
• Equity at exit: $70,514

Cash invested: $23,128 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76661

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,010 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$433
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $763/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $672

Max offer price $82,599

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,650
• Closing costs: $2,478
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,599 Active 503 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,599 Active 502 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,599 Active 501 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,599 Active 500 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $82,599 Active 498 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,599 Active 497 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $82,599 Active 495 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,599 Active 494 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $82,599 Active 493 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $82,599 Active 492 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $82,599 Active 488 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $82,599 Active 487 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $82,599 Active 486 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,599 Active 485 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $82,599 Active 484 DOM
16. 2025-09-12
    price $82,599 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    STARTER HOME NEAR WACO! Discover this unique two-bedroom, one bathroom home is located in Marlin, TX, just south of Waco! The house will have a NEW ROOF. The lot is situated in a prime location that provides easy access to major highways and is conveniently close to local shops, eateries, and schools. It is being sold AS IS but has lots of potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

17. 2025-01-31
    listed $77,599 Active 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    STARTER HOME NEAR WACO! Discover this unique two-bedroom, one bathroom home is located in Marlin, TX, just south of Waco! The house will have a NEW ROOF. The lot is situated in a prime location that provides easy access to major highways and is conveniently close to local shops, eateries, and schools. It is being sold AS IS but has lots of potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $763 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,512 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$749/yr (+$62/mo · 98.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,627
• − Property taxes: −$763
• − Insurance: −$413
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$970
• − Management: −$970
• − Depreciation: −$2,403
• Taxable income: $1,976
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$474
• After-tax cash flow: $2,728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marlin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829130
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,255
• Composite: 17.18/100
• National rank: #9106
• State rank: #779 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marlin

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1146
• US rank: #20161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marlin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,266

Population outlook (Falls County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,782 people
• By 2030: 15,209 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 14,276 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 13,645 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 13,724 · -13.0%
• By 2100: 13,005 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 30% White 30% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Falls

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.7pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 126.9217
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+6.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $82,599 HARMLS
• 2025-01-31 Listed $77,599 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $763 · -62.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.