125 Kings Pl · Newport Beach, CA 92663

$8,700,000

5 bd · 6.5 ba · 6,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 213 Days on market

Built 2016 8,660 sqft lot $1279/sqft · 29% below area Est $12273k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the epitome of refined elegance and timeless charm in this impeccable Cape Cod-inspired estate located in the sought-after Cliff Haven private cul-de-sac. Boasting 6800 sqft of luxurious living space, this residence features five bedrooms, 7 bathrooms, and a plethora of classic sophistication and modern comfort. From marble counters to custom built-ins, crown moldings, and designer lighting, every detail exudes a level of quality rarely seen. The expansive chef's kitchen with coffered ceilings is perfect for hosting gatherings, while the multiple indoor/outdoor spaces and rooftop deck provide breathtaking views and endless entertainment possibilities. Avocado trees in full bloom

Key facts

• Citrus fruits
• Rooftop deck
• Avocado trees

Tags

• CAPE COD INSPIRED ESTATE
• EXPANSIVE CHEF'S KITCHEN
• MULTIPLE INDOOR OUTDOOR SPACES
• ROOFTOP DECK
• AVOCADO TREES
• CITRUS FRUITS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/6.5-bath single-family listed at $8.70M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49k ($-591k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $765k (91.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $669k (92.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $669k (92.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate -0.5% vs local median 0.6% in Newport Beach — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#101 in CA, #3,645 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Newport-Mesa Unified (urban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #106 of 517 in CA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,691/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($142k/yr) (locally 1158% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $930k of equity ($60k loan paydown + $870k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$1.50M cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($7.66M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $500k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $5.30M; list at $8.70M implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $669,120 (92.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 92% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.08% ✗
• Cap rate: -0.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -24.27%
• DSCR: -0.08
• GRM: 108.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $12,273,198
• List price: $8,700,000
• Delta: -29.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
530 Kings Rd	0.12mi	5/5.5	6,436 (-5%)	8mo	$7,200,000	$1,119	75
302 Kings Rd	0.03mi	6/7.5 (+1)	6,469 (-5%)	12mo	$12,425,000	$1,921	71
2668 Bayshore Dr	0.35mi	5/4.5	6,550 (-4%)	2mo	$33,500,000	$5,115	67
115 Kings Pl	0.01mi	6/6.5 (+1)	7,567 (+11%)	21mo	$8,200,000	$1,084	58
433 Harbor Island Dr	0.55mi	4/6.5 (-1)	6,562 (-4%)	10mo	$17,000,000	$2,591	55
507 Morning Star Ln	0.66mi	5/4.5	5,934 (-13%)	18mo	$12,200,000	$2,056	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $1,594,461
• Equity at exit: $7,837,649

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $7,150,254
• Equity at exit: $16,902,186

Cash invested: $2,436,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92663

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 108.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,691 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$45,624
• Tax from tax record: −$5,299 /mo · $63,590/yr
• Insurance: −$3,625
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,405
• Net cashflow: $-49,262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $69,048

Max offer price $764,899

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-44,337	-5% $-46,799	+0% $-49,262	+5% $-51,724	+10% $-54,187
Rent	-10% $-49,790	-5% $-49,526	+0% $-49,262	+5% $-48,998	+10% $-48,733
Rate	-1.0pp $-44,881	-0.5pp $-47,049	base $-49,262	+0.5pp $-51,516	+1.0pp $-53,810

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,175,000
• Closing costs: $261,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
94 Linda Isle Newport Beach, CA	4.0	4.0	4834	$26,500	$5.48	44d	1	0.34mi
45 Linda Isle Newport Beach, CA	4.0	5.5	5200	$40,000	$7.69	22d	1	0.36mi
14 Beacon Bay Newport Beach, CA	4.0	4.5	5000	$75,000	$15.00	44d	1	0.77mi
2907 Cliff Dr Newport Beach, CA	5.0	5.5	5002	$16,500	$3.30	44d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $8,700,000 Active 213 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $8,700,000 Active 212 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $8,700,000 Active 211 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $8,700,000 Active 210 DOM
5. 2025-12-10
   price $8,700,000
6. 2025-10-15
   listed $9,200,000 Active
7. 2025-10-10
   historical
8. 2025-08-21
   listed $10,199,000 Active
9. 2025-08-16
   historical
10. 2017-07-18
    soldstatus $5,300,000 Closed Sale
11. 2017-07-17
    soldstatus $5,300,000
12. 2017-07-03
    historical Active Under Contract
13. 2017-06-12
    listed $5,495,000 Active
14. 2016-10-06
    historical
15. 2016-08-08
    price $5,995,000
16. 2016-07-14
    listed $6,495,000 Active
17. 2015-07-13
    soldstatus $3,400,000 Closed Sale
18. 2015-07-13
    soldstatus $3,400,000
19. 2015-06-29
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2015-04-24
    price $3,895,000
21. 2015-04-22
    status Active
22. 2015-04-20
    historical Active Under Contract
23. 2015-02-26
    status Active
24. 2015-02-26
    historical Hold Do Not Show
25. 2015-02-26
    price $4,200,000
26. 2015-02-25
    listed $1,950,000 Active
27. 2014-11-07
    historical
28. 2014-08-08
    price $4,099,000
29. 2014-02-26
    listed $4,499,000 Active
30. 2004-04-19
    soldstatus $3,300,000
31. 2004-04-19
    soldstatus $3,300,000
32. 2004-02-24
    listed $3,495,000
33. 2001-12-14
    soldstatus $2,050,000
34. 2001-12-14
    soldstatus $2,050,000
35. 2001-07-25
    historical
36. 2001-07-23
    listed $2,250,000
37. 2001-02-02
    historical
38. 2001-02-02
    listed $2,695,000
39. 2001-01-29
    listed $2,895,000
40. 1999-06-30
    soldstatus $2,250,000
41. 1990-06-18
    soldstatus $1,379,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $63,590 · $5,299/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $66,120 · $5,510/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,530/yr (+$211/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $80,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$487,335
• − Property taxes: −$63,590
• − Insurance: −$43,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,424
• − Management: −$6,424
• − Depreciation: −$253,091
• Taxable loss: −$780,069
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$187,216
• After-tax cash flow: $-403,926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newport-Mesa Unified
• NCES district ID: 0627240
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,922
• Composite: 47.64/100
• National rank: #2248
• State rank: #106 of 517 in CA

Livability — Newport Beach

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #3645

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newport Beach, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 83,845
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,368
• Household income: $141,541
• Rent vs Own: 51.6% rent · 48.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1158.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 5% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.24%
• Current HPI: 552.1519
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.56%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+530.9% since first listed

37 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $8,700,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $9,200,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-10 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $10,199,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-16 Coming Soon — CRMLS
• 2017-07-18 Sold (MLS) $5,300,000 CRMLS
• 2017-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $5,300,000 Public Records
• 2017-07-03 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2017-06-12 Listed $5,495,000 CRMLS
• 2016-10-06 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2016-08-08 Price Changed $5,995,000 CRMLS
• 2016-07-14 Listed $6,495,000 CRMLS
• 2015-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $3,400,000 Public Records
• 2015-07-13 Sold (MLS) $3,400,000 CRMLS
• 2015-06-29 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2015-04-24 Price Changed $3,895,000 CRMLS
• 2015-04-22 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2015-04-20 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2015-02-26 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2015-02-26 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2015-02-26 Price Changed $4,200,000 CRMLS
• 2015-02-25 Listed $1,950,000 CRMLS
• 2014-11-07 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2014-08-08 Price Changed $4,099,000 CRMLS
• 2014-02-26 Listed $4,499,000 CRMLS
• 2004-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $3,300,000 Public Records
• 2004-04-19 Sold (MLS) $3,300,000 CRMLS
• 2004-02-24 Listed $3,495,000 CRMLS
• 2001-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $2,050,000 Public Records
• 2001-12-14 Sold (MLS) $2,050,000 CRMLS
• 2001-07-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2001-07-23 Listed $2,250,000 CRMLS
• 2001-02-02 Listed $2,695,000 CRMLS
• 2001-02-02 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2001-01-29 Listed $2,895,000 CRMLS
• 1999-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $2,250,000 Public Records
• 1990-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $1,379,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $63,590 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.