4151 Valley Ridge Dr · Archdale, NC 27370

$220,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,356 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1987 0.60 ac lot Est $286k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1 level home located on a corner lot in Trinity! Tucked away, this ranch style home provides a great opportunity to add your personal touches. This home offers hardwood floors, carpeted bedrooms and partially fenced backyard with multiple storage buildings. * New 2026 HVAC System, New Water Heater & New PEX Plumbing Piping, Refrigerator remains, 182 additional square footage in finished carport open to living area but does not have HVAC ductwork * SOLD AS IS This home can provide great opportunities! Book Your Showing!

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1987

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as existing (not new construction)
• HOA & community: No association; Subdivision: White Estates

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Carport and driveway with gravel parking
• Security: Deadbolt locks
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electric water heater; Electric power
• Home design: Residential stick/site-built house; One story; Built in 1987
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior; Crawl space foundation; Shingles (roof type not specified)
• Exterior features: Cleared, level yard; Partially fenced; No pool; Public maintained road; Storage structure on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (electric)
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on main level; Attic access only; Storm door(s); Insulated windows; Ceiling fan(s); Deadbolt(s); Separate shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer connection; Laundry on main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($418/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.9% in Archdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#138 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Randolph County School System (rural): math 43% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #94 of 178 in NC (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John R Lawrence Elementary School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #497 of 1,410 statewide, top 38%, 396 students, 52% FRL); Wheatmore Middle School (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #222 of 475 statewide, top 49%, 496 students, 52% FRL); Wheatmore High School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 677 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 789 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randolph County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $220k implies a 249% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,492 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.68%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,116
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4202 Beaumont Dr	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,518 (+12%)	2mo	$272,000	$179	66
4124 Skyview Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-12%)	8mo	$249,900	$208	63
4123 Beaumont Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,281 (-6%)	12mo	$270,000	$211	63
3916 Rollingwood Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,170 (-14%)	3mo	$210,000	$179	57
9249 Archdale Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,415 (+4%)	17mo	$389,000	$275	53
4131 Skyview Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,164 (-14%)	14mo	$265,000	$228	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-33,516
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-26,665
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27370

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,745 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,180/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,701

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $159	-5% $97	+0% $35	+5% $-27	+10% $-90
Rent	-10% $-103	-5% $-34	+0% $35	+5% $104	+10% $173
Rate	-1.0pp $146	-0.5pp $91	base $35	+0.5pp $-22	+1.0pp $-80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 554-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $220,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 78 DOM
18. 2026-03-28
    price $220,000
19. 2026-03-13
    listed $239,900 Active
20. 1993-05-25
    soldstatus $63,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,180 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,804 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$624/yr (+$52/mo · 52.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,180
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,675
• − Management: −$1,675
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,414
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$819
• After-tax cash flow: $1,237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Randolph County School System
• NCES district ID: 3703780
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,490
• Composite: 36.37/100
• National rank: #4686
• State rank: #94 of 178 in NC

Livability — Archdale

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #7875

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 21,446
• Population (ZIP): 15,223

Population outlook (Randolph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 142,640 people
• By 2030: 140,911 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 135,692 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 128,575 · -9.9%
• By 2075: 111,507 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 93,376 · -34.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Slovak 5% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randolph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.2) · D 21.0% · R 78.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -42.3pp · 2024: -57.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.2 2020: R+56.3 2016: R+56.7 2012: R+50.2 2008: R+42.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.61%
• Current HPI: 242.2984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+249.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $220,000 Triad MLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $239,900 Triad MLS
• 1993-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,180 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.