223 Phyllis Ave · Buffalo, NY 14215

$68,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,082 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1945 5,250 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 223 Phyllis Ave. Beautiful 3 bedroom, 1 bath just waiting for some love and attention. Bring your paint brush, hammer and nails and make this home beautiful again. Generous size rooms, hardwood floors and bedrooms with plenty of storage are just some of the positive aspects of this property. This property will not disappoint in potential.

Key facts

• 5,250 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1945

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $726 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• Cap rate 19.1% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 239 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $470 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $68,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.76%
• DSCR: 3.04
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,398
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
223 Phyllis Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,082 (0%)	0mo	$68,500	$63	100
165 Davidson Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-2%)	4mo	$145,000	$137	86
99 Fennimore Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+2%)	3mo	$115,000	$105	85
322 Phyllis Ave	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,098 (+2%)	0mo	$175,000	$159	83
358 Hastings Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+6%)	2mo	$128,500	$112	76
180 Bickford Ave	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,100 (+2%)	7mo	$125,000	$114	75
492 Hewitt Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,065 (-2%)	2mo	$241,000	$226	72
84 Fennimore Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0	961 (-11%)	1mo	$149,900	$156	69
53 Bickford Ave	0.35mi	3/1.0	962 (-11%)	1mo	$148,000	$154	64
340 Shirley Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-2%)	3mo	$140,000	$133	61
19 Allendale Rd	0.57mi	4/1.0 (+1)	990 (-8%)	1mo	$165,000	$167	53
601 Lasalle Ave	0.67mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,188 (+10%)	1mo	$165,000	$139	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $31,905
• Equity at exit: $10,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $74,341
• Equity at exit: $5,879

Cash invested: $19,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14215

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,441 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$357
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $325/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $726

Break-even live

Break-even rent $522

Max offer price $68,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $764	-5% $745	+0% $726	+5% $707	+10% $687
Rent	-10% $612	-5% $669	+0% $726	+5% $783	+10% $840
Rate	-1.0pp $760	-0.5pp $743	base $726	+0.5pp $708	+1.0pp $690

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,000
• Closing costs: $2,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
97 Davidson Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	925	$1,495	$1.62	3d	1	0.26mi
189 Westminster Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1065	$1,595	$1.50	12d	1	0.38mi
507 Lisbon Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	45d	1	0.76mi
17 Proctor Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	45d	1	0.77mi
220 Dartmouth Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	25d	1	0.77mi
160 Courtland Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	810	$1,025	$1.27	16d	1	0.80mi
74 Dorris Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	45d	1	0.85mi
103 Preston Rd Unit Lower Cheektowaga, NY	2.0	1.0	882	$1,300	$1.47	4d	1	0.85mi
140 Parkridge Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,500	$1.52	45d	1	0.87mi
249 Newburgh Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	930	$1,300	$1.40	45d	1	1.01mi
61 Courtland Ave Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	45d	1	1.02mi
263 Minnesota Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1242	$1,500	$1.21	16d	1	1.03mi
265 Lisbon Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	45d	1	1.04mi
44 Aurora Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1272	$3,300	$2.59	3d	1	1.10mi
222 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	25d	1	1.13mi
222 Lisbon Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	45d	1	1.13mi
90 Sussex St Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	45d	1	1.21mi
190 Manhattan Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	724	$1,200	$1.66	45d	1	1.23mi
92 Lasalle Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,150	$1.15	45d	1	1.32mi
89 Lasalle Ave Buffalo, NY	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1024	$2,291	$2.24	3d	10	1.33mi
50 Pine Ridge Ter Unit 3 Cheektowaga, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	18d	1	1.34mi
56 Hagen St #2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$950	$1.12	45d	1	1.35mi
85 Blake St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1022	$1,000	$0.98	45d	1	1.40mi
40 Lisbon Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1057	$1,500	$1.42	12d	1	1.42mi
2939 Main St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	562	$1,999	$3.55	4d	1	1.42mi
11 Kaufman Dr Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-11-06
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-06
   listed $68,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $325 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $737 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$412/yr (+$34/mo · 126.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,809
• − Property taxes: −$325
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,383
• − Management: −$1,383
• − Depreciation: −$1,978
• Taxable income: $8,068
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,936
• After-tax cash flow: $6,776/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,524
• Household income: $44,955
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2873.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 15% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.29%
• Current HPI: 295.2966
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $68,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $325 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.