803 S 31st St · Louisville, KY 40211

$105,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 987 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 1925 3,276 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

front porch

Key facts

• Waterproofing system
• New gutters
• New sump pump

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW GUTTERS
• CENTRAL AIR SYSTEM
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL PANEL BOX
• WATERPROOFING SYSTEM
• NEW SUMP PUMP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the GARLAND PLACE subdivision; Lot dimensions approximately 35.5 x 91
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas service
• Home design: Single family ranch-style home; One story; Built in 1925
• Construction: Shingle roof; 987 total living area (above and below grade combined)
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Sidewalk; Cleared lot; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Main-level kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partially finished basement; Finished basement; Two closets; Four total main rooms; Six total rooms; Other room located in basement
• Laundry & utility: No first-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $199 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($32k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $105k implies a 239% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,425 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.14%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $66,129
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
844 Louis Coleman Jr Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+2%)	3mo	$109,000	$108	74
2615 Greenwood Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	988 (+0%)	3mo	$71,000	$72	68
2831 W Madison St	0.57mi	2/1.0	937 (-5%)	1mo	$108,000	$115	64
3212 W Kentucky St	0.28mi	2/1.5	1,104 (+12%)	2mo	$45,000	$41	64
3419 Greenwood Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,033 (+5%)	3mo	$120,000	$116	62
2645 Grand Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0	926 (-6%)	3mo	$62,000	$67	62
722 S 37th St	0.52mi	2/1.0	1,092 (+11%)	4mo	$46,000	$42	55
3425 Vermont Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0	912 (-8%)	4mo	$36,500	$40	54
3107 Dumesnil St	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,035 (+5%)	6mo	$32,000	$31	49
2620 W Madison St	0.64mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,080 (+9%)	1mo	$74,000	$69	46
848 S 23rd St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,029 (+4%)	6mo	$64,750	$63	45
637 S 27th St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,110 (+12%)	7mo	$40,000	$36	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,326
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $22,814
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40211

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,058 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $505/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $806

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $259	-5% $229	+0% $199	+5% $170	+10% $140
Rent	-10% $116	-5% $158	+0% $199	+5% $241	+10% $283
Rate	-1.0pp $252	-0.5pp $226	base $199	+0.5pp $172	+1.0pp $145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
832 Hazel St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	720	$1,095	$1.52	4d	1	0.09mi
701 Hazel St Unit 3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	832	$800	$0.96	11d	1	0.18mi
814 S 33rd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,350	$1.22	4d	1	0.20mi
3122 W Kentucky St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1030	$1,150	$1.12	25d	1	0.22mi
666 Eastlawn Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	936	$895	$0.96	17d	1	0.29mi
2724 Garland Ave Unit 202 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	950	$745	$0.78	4d	1	0.34mi
2821 Greenwood Ave #1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1113	$1,300	$1.17	25d	1	0.36mi
691 Madelon Ct Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	650	$675	$1.04	13d	1	0.37mi
3515 W Kentucky St Unit 3515-12 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	700	$695	$0.99	25d	1	0.41mi
2710 W Kentucky St Apt 2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1015	$1,300	$1.28	25d	1	0.41mi
2733 Chase Ct Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	17d	1	0.42mi
2708 Greenwood Ave Apt 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	25d	1	0.47mi
3124 Vermont Ave Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	650	$699	$1.08	25d	1	0.55mi
3124 Vermont Ave Unit 3124-1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	650	$695	$1.07	25d	1	0.55mi
2513 Date St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	700	$745	$1.06	4d	1	0.57mi
3215 Virginia Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	975	$924	$0.95	25d	1	0.59mi
3421 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	994	$1,250	$1.26	25d	1	0.59mi
823 S 38th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	4d	1	0.59mi
1145 Louis Coleman Jr Dr Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	913	$875	$0.96	25d	1	0.60mi
652 S 37th St #9 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,095	$1.02	25d	1	0.62mi
2706 Hale Ave Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	25d	1	0.63mi
2706 Hale Ave Unit 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	25d	1	0.63mi
648 S 37th St #3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	807	$850	$1.05	25d	1	0.63mi
729 S 39th St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	25d	1	0.67mi
2913 Dumesnil St Apt 3 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1112	$740	$0.67	11d	1	0.68mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	928	$950	$1.02	25d	1	0.68mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	928	$850	$0.92	18d	1	0.68mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	928	$850	$0.92	25d	1	0.68mi
2411 Elliott Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	892	$895	$1.00	25d	1	0.70mi
2807 Dumesnil St Unit 101 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	25d	1	0.71mi
848 S 23rd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,450	$1.38	25d	1	0.74mi
2310 W Broadway Unit 1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	1100	$975	$0.89	4d	1	0.74mi
2614 Virginia Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	975	$925	$0.95	25d	1	0.75mi
714 S 40th St #2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	25d	1	0.79mi
833 S 41st St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	786	$1,250	$1.59	25d	1	0.83mi
1339 S 28th St Unit 3 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,175	$1.04	21d	1	0.83mi
2623 Cedar St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	25d	1	0.84mi
3819 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1108	$1,090	$0.98	21d	1	0.84mi
2718 W Jefferson St Unit 2718-3 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	633	$699	$1.10	25d	1	0.87mi
2718 W Jefferson St Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	633	$699	$1.10	22d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $105,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 689-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $105,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $505 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $903 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$398/yr (+$33/mo · 79.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$505
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,016
• − Management: −$1,016
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $699
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$168
• After-tax cash flow: $2,225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 20,407
• Household income: $31,749
• Rent vs Own: 58.6% rent · 41.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1483.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.22%
• Current HPI: 176.337
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.87%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+183.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $105,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2022-03-04 Sold (MLS) $31,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2022-02-13 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2021-10-18 Listed $37,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2021-10-18 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2021-10-05 Listed $37,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $505 · +26.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.