820 Von Lunen Rd · Johnstown, PA 15902

$31,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,936 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 1905 3,120 sqft lot Est $50k · 38% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Must see interior! This 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home has a great eat-in kitchen, living room, den or office area. Three spacious bedrooms with ample closet space. Central Air, Concrete parking area with garage and more! Call for your appointment today.

Key facts

• 3,120 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Listed 9 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car); Off-street and on-street parking; Concrete parking surfaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer available; Sewer system connected
• Home design: Two-story single-family home; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Two levels (2 stories)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Partial fencing; Rectangular lot; City street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range hood
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom located downstairs
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Primary bedroom on main floor; Full unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $31k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $565 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $31k).
• Cap rate 28.1% vs local median 15.0% in Johnstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#363 in PA, #3,168 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Greater Johnstown SD (urban): math 9% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #509 of 539 in PA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $214 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $930 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $31,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.06%
• DSCR: 4.47
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $50,336
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
530 Ash St	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,100 (+8%)	4mo	$57,500	$27	68
822 Oak St	0.15mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,741 (-10%)	1mo	$60,000	$34	66
108 Arthur St	0.35mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,804 (-7%)	6mo	$39,000	$22	62
714 Bloom St	0.09mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (-7%)	24mo	$30,000	$17	59
1090 Crest Ave	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,784 (-8%)	10mo	$50,000	$28	58
1052 Bedford St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (-9%)	3mo	$46,500	$26	53
120 Homestead Ave	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,024 (+4%)	23mo	$101,000	$50	52
973 Ash St	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,665 (-14%)	14mo	$58,700	$35	49
1087 Mckinley Ave	0.71mi	4/1.5	1,733 (-10%)	4mo	$45,000	$26	44
326 Arthur St	0.35mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,750 (-10%)	23mo	$32,500	$19	41
425 Linden Ave	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,752 (-10%)	17mo	$39,000	$22	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 78.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.57×
• Total profit: $30,986
• Equity at exit: $4,622

10-year hold

• IRR: 81.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.47×
• Total profit: $73,486
• Equity at exit: $2,680

Cash invested: $8,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15902

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,055 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$163
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,116/yr
• Insurance: −$13
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $565

Break-even live

Break-even rent $340

Max offer price $31,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,750
• Closing costs: $930
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
704 Cypress Ave Unit 706 Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	2496	$950	$0.38	43d	1	1.01mi
129-131 Plainfield Ave Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$850	$0.65	43d	1	1.24mi
550 Ferndale Ave Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,100	$0.85	43d	1	1.40mi
553 Vickroy Ave #555 Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$985	$0.76	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $31,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $31,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $31,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $31,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $31,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $31,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $31,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,116 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,116 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,654
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,736
• − Property taxes: −$1,116
• − Insurance: −$155
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,012
• − Management: −$1,012
• − Depreciation: −$902
• Taxable income: $6,720
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,613
• After-tax cash flow: $5,162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greater Johnstown SD
• NCES district ID: 4210950
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,890
• Composite: 13.25/100
• National rank: #9550
• State rank: #509 of 539 in PA

Livability — Johnstown

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #3168

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnstown, PA
• County: Cambria County · 30,791 people
• City population: 30,791
• Metro: Johnstown, PA
• Population (ZIP): 11,462
• Household income: $44,215
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 266.0

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 2% Hungarian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.86%
• Current HPI: 108.2198
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Johnstown, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-16.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $31,000 CSMLS
• 2008-01-31 Sold (MLS) $38,000 CSMLS
• 2008-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 2007-11-08 Listed $36,900 CSMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,116 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.