11538 Persimmon St · Willis, TX 77318

$162,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Land · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 2,100 sqft lot $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Home - /PICTURES are for Example of floor plan as this home is a new construction home, Please walk the home for the exact plan and decor. This home is a single story 3 bedroom 2 bath home featuring open kitchen with a Kitchen island. offers lots of upgrades: 42" cabinets with soft close, a large walk in pantry, stainless steel appliances. Tile throughout the home, with large walk in closet and high end faucets for the bathrooms. Master offers a walk in shower while you still get the tub in the spare bathroom. Subdivision offers, Large Pool, Basketball court, Pickleball court, Volleyball court and multiple parks plus Boat ramp and lake access

Key facts

• High end faucets
• Kitchen island
• Walk in pantry

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK IN PANTRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE WALK IN CLOSET
• HIGH END FAUCETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Lamar Homes LLC
• HOA & community: Walnut Cove community association; Quarterly association fee of $60; Association fee covers recreation facilities; Community amenities include basketball court, boat ramp, meeting/party room, picnic area, playground, pickleball, park, and pool

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Asphalt road access; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other rooms)
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; High ceilings; Kitchen and family room combo; Pantry; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Ventilation for indoor air quality

🏗️ New construction. The $162,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $155,773.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $163k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1199 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,013 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.52%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,773
• List price: $162,900
• Delta: 4.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-17,068
• Equity at exit: $23,226

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-17,213
• Equity at exit: $13,468

Cash invested: $43,617 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1199
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,734 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$817
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$195 /mo · $2,337/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,472

Max offer price $155,773

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $315	-5% $261	+0% $207	+5% $153	+10% $99
Rent	-10% $70	-5% $138	+0% $207	+5% $275	+10% $344
Rate	-1.0pp $285	-0.5pp $246	base $207	+0.5pp $167	+1.0pp $125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,943
• Closing costs: $4,673
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11555 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	44d	1	0.04mi
11559 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,490	$1.49	44d	1	0.05mi
11561 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,530	$1.53	44d	1	0.05mi
9992 Calendar St Willis, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	44d	1	0.17mi
9743 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	4d	1	0.19mi
9745 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	44d	1	0.20mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	5d	1	0.90mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	44d	1	0.94mi
14156 Shadow Bay Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,195	$1.53	0d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $162,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $162,900 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $162,900 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $162,900 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $162,900 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $162,900 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $162,900 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $162,900 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $162,900 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $162,900 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $162,900 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $162,900 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $162,900 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $162,900 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    listed $162,900 Active 672-char remark
16. 2025-08-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,726
• − Property taxes: −$2,337
• − Insurance: −$1,576
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,665
• − Management: −$1,665
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$4,532
• Taxable income: $68
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16
• After-tax cash flow: $2,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $162,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $242 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.