2515 E Ave I · Lancaster, CA 93535

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · Land public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1969

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1969
• Listed 128 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease of $847
• HOA & community: Located in Desert Palm Mobile Home Park; Community allows biking

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2-car garage capacity
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (12 ft x 60 ft); Mobile home remains on site
• Construction: Year built: source listed as Other
• Exterior features: No pool

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Single-level entry
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups on site

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.4% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Eastside Union Elementary (suburban): math 15% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #1,226 of 1,400 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1169 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 75.26%
• DSCR: 4.35
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $65,269
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 75.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.66×
• Total profit: $139,806
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93535

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1169
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,323 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $1,317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45118 Parkview Ln Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	980	$2,500	$2.55	24d	1	0.70mi
44709 26th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,300	$1.75	18d	1	0.80mi
1734 Lightcap St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1467	$2,700	$1.84	1d	1	1.01mi
45041 Colleen Dr Lancaster, CA	3.0	3.0	1303	$3,100	$2.38	1d	1	1.02mi
2500 Topaz Ln Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1274	$2,800	$2.20	24d	1	1.30mi
1647 Orchid Ln Lancaster, CA	3.0	3.0	1084	$1,950	$1.80	22d	1	1.32mi
1647 Orchid Ln Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,875	$1.88	2d	1	1.32mi
1628 Cactus Dr Apt B Lancaster, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,999	$2.00	1d	1	1.33mi
1827 East Avenue J Unit 2 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,850	$1.76	17d	1	1.34mi
44532 15th St E #7 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1062	$2,150	$2.02	24d	1	1.42mi
44532 15th St E #7 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1062	$2,050	$1.93	1d	1	1.42mi
44236 20th St E Lancaster, CA	2.0	1.0–2.5	900	$1,712	$1.90	1d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-02-28
    status Active
16. 2026-02-13
    status Pending Sale
17. 2026-01-26
    listed $75,000 Active
18. 2014-09-26
    historical
19. 2014-06-13
    listed $3,990
20. 2007-10-26
    soldstatus $1,240,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,230
• − Management: −$2,230
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $15,536
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,729
• After-tax cash flow: $12,077/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0611910
• Math proficiency: 15% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,840
• Composite: 21.43/100
• National rank: #13636
• State rank: #1226 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 79,409
• Household income: $70,360
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2494.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 25% Black 21% White 17% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.13%
• Current HPI: 449.4494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-94.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-28 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-02-13 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $75,000 CRMLS
• 2014-09-26 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2014-06-13 Listed $3,990 AVMLS
• 2007-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $1,240,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $30,171 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.