1827 Biscayne Bay Cir · Jacksonville, FL 32218

$225,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,588 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 2007 6,098 sqft lot Est $260k · 14% under $148/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on the market This beautiful well kept.Water Front Townhome close to Airport,River city Marketplace, Shopping ,Dining. Unit has large Kitchen,with breakfast Nook,Georgeous wood floors, spacious master suite a must see.

Key facts

• Plantation shutters
• Upgraded finishes
• Striking kitchen

Tags

• STRIKING KITCHEN
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• LAKEFRONT HOME
• UPGRADED FINISHES
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• NEIGHBORHOOD WITH AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with clubhouse and playground; Association fee $443 quarterly

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity available; Sewer available
• Home design: Townhouse; Property is attached; Faces east; Entry level: 1
• Exterior features: Lakefront property; Community pool (not private)

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, electric range, microwave, refrigerator, disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Dryer; Electric range; Electric water heater; Microwave; Refrigerator; Washer
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-546/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 728 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $225k implies a 231% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,198 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.87%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $260,432
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1644 Biscayne Bay Cir	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,588 (0%)	14mo	$205,000	$129	83
1374 Biscayne Grove Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+2%)	2mo	$290,500	$178	68
11753 Raven Dr W	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+2%)	5mo	$210,000	$130	61
12195 Breeze Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,564 (-2%)	4mo	$257,000	$164	59
1344 High Plains Dr N	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+2%)	15mo	$250,000	$155	50
11828 Sagebrush Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,513 (-5%)	18mo	$275,000	$182	46
12013 Sea Grove Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,711 (+8%)	12mo	$293,000	$171	43
12168 Orchid Ct	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,705 (+7%)	9mo	$285,000	$167	43
1380 Biscayne Grove Ln	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,771 (+12%)	11mo	$289,999	$164	40
11565 Whisperingbrook Ln	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (+3%)	14mo	$245,000	$150	40
11792 Biscayne Blvd	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,444 (-9%)	14mo	$299,000	$207	39
1431 Raven Dr S	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,371 (-14%)	16mo	$150,000	$109	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-44,736
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-63,478
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32218

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 728
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,832 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $853/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$148
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,890

Max offer price $216,964

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1660 Biscayne Bay Cir Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1220	$1,396	$1.14	24d	1	0.06mi
1692 Biscayne Bay Cir Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1588	$1,650	$1.04	24d	1	0.09mi
1544 Biscayne Bay Dr Unit 1544 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1424	$2,000	$1.40	12d	1	0.18mi
12260 Salvia Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1732	$2,100	$1.21	24d	1	0.20mi
12450 Biscayne Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	932	$1,439	$1.54	24d	1	0.24mi
1541 Kingfisher Ln N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,910	$1.47	17d	1	0.41mi
12525 Tibbets Ln Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,919	$1.96	2d	54	0.67mi
12024 Sea Grove Pl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$1,800	$1.05	24d	1	0.67mi
1104 Cherry Point Way Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1673	$1,849	$1.11	8d	1	0.71mi
1327 Eagle Cove Rd N Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1244	$1,526	$1.23	17d	1	0.77mi
11552 Key Biscayne Dr W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1849	$1,800	$0.97	24d	1	0.88mi
2346 Blossom Ridge Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,819	$1.36	11d	1	0.89mi
843 Magic Cove Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,999	$1.19	8d	1	0.99mi
11931 Alexandra Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1189	$1,749	$1.47	8d	1	1.00mi
11332 Island Shore Dr W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1178	$1,703	$1.45	4d	1	1.08mi
12154 Alexandra Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,700	$1.33	4d	1	1.09mi
1736 Daytona Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1879	$2,250	$1.20	4d	1	1.17mi
11386 Margarets Landing Pl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,821	$1.42	21d	1	1.19mi
12295 Sumter Square Dr E Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	2078	$2,050	$0.99	4d	1	1.21mi
2445 Dunn Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,815	$2.14	2d	11	1.21mi
11029 Traci Lynn Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,550	$1.11	4d	1	1.28mi
950 Turtle Creek Dr S Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,824	$1.25	24d	1	1.28mi
11211 Margarets Landing Pl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,826	$1.43	8d	1	1.35mi
11050 Harts Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0–2.5	1145	$1,511	$1.32	3d	10	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $148 · $1,776/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $225,000 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $225,000 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-01-19
    listed $225,000 Active
13. 2012-01-10
    soldstatus $68,000
14. 2011-12-29
    soldstatus $68,000 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Back on the market This beautiful well kept.Water Front Townhome close to Airport,River city Marketplace, Shopping ,Dining. Unit has large Kitchen,with breakfast Nook,Georgeous wood floors, spacious master suite a must see.

15. 2011-02-28
    listed $69,900 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Back on the market This beautiful well kept.Water Front Townhome close to Airport,River city Marketplace, Shopping ,Dining. Unit has large Kitchen,with breakfast Nook,Georgeous wood floors, spacious master suite a must see.

16. 2006-12-18
    historical 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    The Cumberland is our largest plan featuring a large kitchen w/breakfast nook and pantry, upstairs has a spacious master suite w/walk-in closet and private bath, and is on the water. Located in a highly desirable location close to new River City Marketplace and airport. Move in for $1000~call Ryland Homes for more details! See floorplan, community map, and included features under Documents tab

17. 2006-12-08
    soldstatus $180,600
18. 2006-12-07
    listed $164,990 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    The Cumberland is our largest plan featuring a large kitchen w/breakfast nook and pantry, upstairs has a spacious master suite w/walk-in closet and private bath, and is on the water. Located in a highly desirable location close to new River City Marketplace and airport. Move in for $1000~call Ryland Homes for more details! See floorplan, community map, and included features under Documents tab

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $853 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,868 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,015/yr (+$85/mo · 118.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,984
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$853
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,759
• − Management: −$1,759
• − HOA: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,437
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,065
• After-tax cash flow: $519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 72,905
• Household income: $69,638
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2289.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.73%
• Current HPI: 262.2329
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.40%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+36.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-19 Listed $225,000 realMLS
• 2012-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 2011-12-29 Sold (MLS) $68,000 realMLS
• 2011-02-28 Listed $69,900 realMLS
• 2006-12-18 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2006-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $180,600 Public Records
• 2006-12-07 Listed $164,990 realMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $853 · +26.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.