29414 Winton Wood Way · Houston, TX 77386

$234,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,547 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 2008 5,096 sqft lot $152/sqft · 8% below area Est $255k · 8% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Neutral paint throughout, carpet and tile, great kitchen, and huge master bedroom and bath. Homeowners have taken very good care of their home and their pride of ownership shows. Tiled Kitchen and Patio. Nice landscaping in the front yard. Excellent location of Rayford and great Neighborhood.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Updated kitchen
• Formica countertops

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• FORMICA COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• BUILT-IN SHELVING
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.117 acres (dimensions: 112 x 45 x 112 x 46)
• HOA & community: Forest Village Community Association with an annual fee of $425

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces north; Built in 2008; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Shingle and wood roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Fenced backyard; Located on a greenbelt within a subdivision; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Laminate counters; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oak Ridge H S (math 48% / reading 62%, grade C, #373 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 2,672 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 732 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,029 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.01%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,658
• List price: $234,900
• Delta: -7.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2511 Leichester Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-5%)	6mo	$235,000	$159	76
2614 Magnolia Fair Way	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,547 (0%)	4mo	$254,990	$165	75
2249 Yellow Fern Path	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,613 (+4%)	4mo	$290,000	$180	73
29506 Stapleford St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-3%)	6mo	$200,000	$133	72
2354 Hickory Hollow Ln	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+11%)	1mo	$275,000	$160	61
28826 Stapleford St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,516 (-2%)	6mo	$225,000	$148	59
29118 Raestone St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,670 (+8%)	1mo	$229,000	$137	58
29118 Loddington St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,438 (-7%)	7mo	$239,900	$167	56
29615 Brookchase Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,355 (-12%)	4mo	$229,000	$169	55
29123 Raestone St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+8%)	8mo	$220,000	$132	54
29107 Binefield St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-10%)	2mo	$219,500	$158	52
29007 Loddington St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-11%)	7mo	$185,000	$134	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-55,287
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-78,908
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77386

• Home prices YoY: -13.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 732
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,071 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$491 /mo · $5,895/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,349

Max offer price $196,029

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2519 Elm Crossing Trl Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	2168	$2,200	$1.01	17d	1	0.31mi
2438 Elm Crossing Trl Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	24d	1	0.31mi
2530 Fox River Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,900	$1.22	43d	1	0.35mi
2623 Elm Crossing Trl Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1794	$1,948	$1.09	19d	1	0.37mi
29307 Atherstone St Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1764	$1,745	$0.99	21d	1	0.60mi
2237 Riley Fuzzel Rd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$2,435	$2.25	13d	35	0.62mi
2815 Fox Mountain Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,875	$1.21	3d	1	0.71mi
29418 Fox River Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1907	$1,779	$0.93	2d	1	0.74mi
2011 Rycroft Dr Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	1700	$1,949	$1.15	19d	1	1.05mi
29311 Legends Hill Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1768	$2,001	$1.13	13d	1	1.10mi
3640 Harmony Commons Dr Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$2,049	$2.43	14d	23	1.14mi
2625 Harmony Park Xing Unit 3228 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,917	$1.36	2d	1	1.26mi
2625 Harmony Park Xing Unit 2658 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,949	$1.38	10d	1	1.26mi
29735 Legends Green Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	2180	$3,300	$1.51	24d	1	1.27mi
3530 Discovery Creek Blvd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$2,018	$1.92	1d	23	1.28mi
3559 Discovery Creek Blvd Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1086	$1,305	$1.20	43d	1	1.35mi
3536 Discovery Creek Blvd Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1086	$1,570	$1.45	43d	1	1.39mi
3506 Cactus Creek Dr Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	2000	$1,950	$0.97	43d	1	1.39mi
3543 Garrison Run Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,636	$1.17	24d	1	1.42mi
29726 Sullivan Oaks Dr Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	1410	$1,725	$1.22	43d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,900 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,900 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,900 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $234,900 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $234,900 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $234,900 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $234,900 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $234,900 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $234,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $234,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $234,900 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-07
    listed $239,900 Active 892-char remark
15. 2022-06-22
    price $1,625
16. 2016-02-10
    soldstatus
17. 2016-02-09
    soldstatus Sold 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Neutral paint throughout, carpet and tile, great kitchen, and huge master bedroom and bath. Homeowners have taken very good care of their home and their pride of ownership shows. Tiled Kitchen and Patio. Nice landscaping in the front yard. Excellent location of Rayford and great Neighborhood.

18. 2016-02-06
    status Pending 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Neutral paint throughout, carpet and tile, great kitchen, and huge master bedroom and bath. Homeowners have taken very good care of their home and their pride of ownership shows. Tiled Kitchen and Patio. Nice landscaping in the front yard. Excellent location of Rayford and great Neighborhood.

19. 2016-01-29
    status Option Pending 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Neutral paint throughout, carpet and tile, great kitchen, and huge master bedroom and bath. Homeowners have taken very good care of their home and their pride of ownership shows. Tiled Kitchen and Patio. Nice landscaping in the front yard. Excellent location of Rayford and great Neighborhood.

20. 2016-01-20
    listed $139,900 Active 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Neutral paint throughout, carpet and tile, great kitchen, and huge master bedroom and bath. Homeowners have taken very good care of their home and their pride of ownership shows. Tiled Kitchen and Patio. Nice landscaping in the front yard. Excellent location of Rayford and great Neighborhood.

21. 2009-07-20
    soldstatus
22. 2009-07-15
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Absolutely fabulous upgraded 2008 1 story home, ready for you to move into! This lovely home features privacy backyard with no homes in the rear;18' ceramic tile in all wet areas;ceramic tile backsplsh;sitting area in huge mstr bdrm;mega sized closets;large pntry;storm door;blt-in micro;rounded corners;covered porch;auto garage opener;42' cabinets;wired for alarm;spacious mstr bth w/gard tub,sep shwr,& dbl snks;wide 2' blinds;gas cooking;blt-in bookshelves;& gorgeous interior decor painting!!

23. 2009-06-05
    historical

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Absolutely fabulous upgraded 2008 1 story home, ready for you to move into! This lovely home features privacy backyard with no homes in the rear;18' ceramic tile in all wet areas;ceramic tile backsplsh;sitting area in huge mstr bdrm;mega sized closets;large pntry;storm door;blt-in micro;rounded corners;covered porch;auto garage opener;42' cabinets;wired for alarm;spacious mstr bth w/gard tub,sep shwr,& dbl snks;wide 2' blinds;gas cooking;blt-in bookshelves;& gorgeous interior decor painting!!

24. 2009-04-30
    listed $118,000

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Absolutely fabulous upgraded 2008 1 story home, ready for you to move into! This lovely home features privacy backyard with no homes in the rear;18' ceramic tile in all wet areas;ceramic tile backsplsh;sitting area in huge mstr bdrm;mega sized closets;large pntry;storm door;blt-in micro;rounded corners;covered porch;auto garage opener;42' cabinets;wired for alarm;spacious mstr bth w/gard tub,sep shwr,& dbl snks;wide 2' blinds;gas cooking;blt-in bookshelves;& gorgeous interior decor painting!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,895 · $491/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,895 · $491/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$5,895
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,988
• − Management: −$1,988
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$6,607
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,586
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,055/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,980
• Household income: $132,469
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1115.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.74%
• Current HPI: 226.3729
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.35%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+99.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2022-06-22 Price Changed $1,625 RENT.
• 2016-02-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-02-09 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-02-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-01-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-01-20 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2009-07-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-07-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-06-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-04-30 Listed $118,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,895 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.