8788 Beavers Ridge Rd · Piketon, OH 45661

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1963 1.16 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

House is under contract. No showings.

Key facts

• 1.16 acre lot
• Built 1963
• Listed 8 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.1% in Piketon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#780 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Western Local (rural): math 29% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #567 of 656 in OH (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Western Primary (math 54% / reading 34%, grade F, #991 of 1,584 statewide, top 64%, 238 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 64% district-wide (64 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $115k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.86%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-6,915
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $9,066
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45661

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,198 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,341/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $966

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $249	-5% $217	+0% $184	+5% $151	+10% $119
Rent	-10% $89	-5% $137	+0% $184	+5% $231	+10% $279
Rate	-1.0pp $242	-0.5pp $213	base $184	+0.5pp $154	+1.0pp $124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $115,000 Active
3. 2024-02-28
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2024-02-19
   status Active
5. 2024-02-14
   status Pending
6. 2024-02-12
   listed $150,000 Active
7. 2004-12-01
   soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,341 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,568 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$226/yr (+$19/mo · 16.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,382
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,341
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,151
• − Management: −$1,151
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $377
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$91
• After-tax cash flow: $2,118/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western Local
• NCES district ID: 3904915
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $36,144
• Composite: 28.57/100
• National rank: #6724
• State rank: #567 of 656 in OH

Livability — Piketon

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #780
• US rank: #14152

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pike · 24,348 people
• Population (ZIP): 7,528
• Household income: $57,250
• Rent vs Own: 39.9% rent · 60.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.2

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,762 people
• By 2030: 25,744 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 23,509 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 21,090 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 15,765 · -41.1%
• By 2100: 11,361 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 3% Pacific Islander 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.9% · R 76.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -52.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.0pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+48.7 2016: R+36.7 2012: R+0.4 2008: R+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.21%
• Current HPI: 169.4864
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+64.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — SVAR
• 2026-04-01 Listed $115,000 SVAR
• 2024-02-28 Contingent — SVAR
• 2024-02-19 Relisted — SVAR
• 2024-02-14 Pending — SVAR
• 2024-02-12 Listed $150,000 SVAR
• 2004-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+26.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,341 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.