16006 El Toro Ct · Houston, TX 77598

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1980 0.25 ac lot $121/sqft · at area comps Est $291k · at est. $31/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious and versatile 5-bedroom home with 3 full bathrooms, including a full office and full bath downstairs with a walk-in shower, ideal for guests or multigenerational living. This home features granite countertops throughout, an open and functional layout, and generously sized bedrooms. Enjoy outdoor living with a large, covered backyard patio and an oversized backyard perfect for entertaining, pets, or future outdoor upgrades. This home is currently tenant occupied and is needing some TLC. Motivated seller. See attachments for updates.

Key facts

• Walk-in shower
• Granite countertops
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• WALK-IN SHOWER
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• COVERED BACKYARD PATIO
• OVERSIZED BACKYARD
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-263 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 207 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,524/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 1983% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $299k implies a 185% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,358 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.78%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,837
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: 2.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
322 Wedgerock Dr	0.34mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,364 (-4%)	9mo	$275,000	$116	61
15835 Pipers View Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,365 (-4%)	19mo	$314,900	$133	60
403 Redway Ln	0.36mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,380 (-3%)	22mo	$375,000	$158	52
711 Richvale Ln	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,135 (-13%)	10mo	$299,000	$140	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.58% appreciation · 0.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-8,499
• Equity at exit: $111,203

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $14,966
• Equity at exit: $155,116

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77598

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,524 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$534 /mo · $6,402/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,857

Max offer price $252,462

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-94	-5% $-179	+0% $-263	+5% $-348	+10% $-433
Rent	-10% $-463	-5% $-363	+0% $-263	+5% $-164	+10% $-64
Rate	-1.0pp $-113	-0.5pp $-187	base $-263	+0.5pp $-341	+1.0pp $-420

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18833 Town Ridge Ln Unit 18866 Webster, TX	3.0	2.0	2086	$3,084	$1.48	44d	1	0.35mi
18833 Town Ridge Ln Unit 3174 Webster, TX	3.0	2.0	2086	$2,941	$1.41	12d	1	0.35mi
18833 Town Ridge Ln Unit 3148 Webster, TX	3.0	2.0	2086	$2,898	$1.39	3d	1	0.35mi
547 Shealy St Webster, TX	4.0	2.0	1845	$2,286	$1.24	13d	1	0.92mi
946 Beachcomber Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1872	$1,995	$1.07	44d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-03-09
    listed $320,000 Active 547-char remark

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    Spacious and versatile 5-bedroom home with 3 full bathrooms, including a full office and full bath downstairs with a walk-in shower, ideal for guests or multigenerational living. This home features granite countertops throughout, an open and functional layout, and generously sized bedrooms. Enjoy outdoor living with a large, covered backyard patio and an oversized backyard perfect for entertaining, pets, or future outdoor upgrades. This home is currently tenant occupied and is needing some TLC. Motivated seller. See attachments for updates.

16. 2022-07-12
    historical
17. 2022-06-25
    listed $319,000 Active
18. 2016-08-09
    soldstatus
19. 2016-08-02
    soldstatus Sold
20. 2016-07-04
    status Pending
21. 2016-06-23
    status Option Pending
22. 2016-06-05
    listed $210,000 Active
23. 2000-04-25
    soldstatus
24. 2000-04-01
    soldstatus $105,000
25. 1997-08-01
    soldstatus $99,251

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,402 · $534/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,402 · $534/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$6,402
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,423
• − Management: −$2,423
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$8,278
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,987
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clear Creek ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814280
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,240
• Composite: 46.49/100
• National rank: #2431
• State rank: #114 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,110
• Household income: $60,977
• Rent vs Own: 76.9% rent · 23.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1983.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 21% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.58%
• Current HPI: 292.0815
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.56%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+222.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-06-25 Listed $319,000 HARMLS
• 2016-08-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-08-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-07-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-06-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-06-05 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2000-04-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 1997-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $99,251 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,402 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.