14300 W Bell Rd #80 · Surprise, AZ 85374

$189,500

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 908 sqft · Condo public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1986 $209/sqft · 11% below area Est $212k · 11% under $507/mo HOA · 27% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Absolutely Beautiful 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom, Single Level Patio Home Located in Desired Sun Village, Open Kitchen w/Appliances Included, Eat-It Kitchen Dining Room, Spacious Greatroom, Master Bedroom w/Walk-In Closet & Ensuite Master Bathroom, Split Floor Plan, 2nd Bedroom w/Walk-In Closet & Bathroom, Inside Laundry Room w/Washer & Dryer Included, New Interior Paint & All New Flooring, Covered Patio, 1 Car Covered Carport, HOA Inclusive Community (Exterior Maintenance, Building Insurance, Water/Sewer/Trash), Guarded & Gated 55+ Adult Community, Amazing Amenities w/Community Pool/Spa, Clubhouse, Workout Facility, Golf Course Community and More! Come Check It Out!

Key facts

• $507 HOA
• Parking
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 399 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,331 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.48%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $212,155
• List price: $189,500
• Delta: -10.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-45,544
• Equity at exit: $28,255

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-71,764
• Equity at exit: $16,384

Cash invested: $53,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85374

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 399
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,885 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$994
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $762/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$507
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,080

Max offer price $162,331

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,375
• Closing costs: $5,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14300 W Bell Rd Unit NA Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	938	$1,900	$2.03	43d	1	0.10mi
14300 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	946	$1,948	$2.06	12d	2	0.16mi
16671 N Litchfield Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,624	$1.66	1d	19	0.55mi
16682 N West Point Pkwy Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,587	$1.63	2d	14	0.63mi
14155 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,695	$1.98	2d	12	0.64mi
16230 N Litchfield Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	1.0–3.0	1081	$2,005	$1.86	2d	47	0.74mi
17927 N Parkview Pl Surprise, AZ	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	986	$1,531	$1.55	1d	8	0.76mi
16945 N Stadium Way Surprise, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,720	$1.74	2d	23	0.78mi
14817 W Juneberry Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1108	$1,800	$1.62	24d	1	0.86mi
13831 W Fargo Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	24d	1	0.98mi
14575 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1345	$2,650	$1.97	11d	9	0.98mi
14575 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1345	$2,562	$1.90	4d	8	0.98mi
16485 N Stadium Way Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$1,566	$1.55	2d	46	1.00mi
16431 N Parkview Pl Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1004	$3,285	$3.27	2d	132	1.11mi
13635 W Utica Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1084	$2,750	$2.54	43d	1	1.14mi
15510 N La Cometa Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1057	$2,849	$2.70	4d	16	1.19mi
15032 W Jackpot Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	923	$1,600	$1.73	24d	1	1.19mi
15267 N 140th Dr Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$1,604	$1.90	2d	12	1.29mi
15164 N 140th Dr Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	976	$1,660	$1.70	2d	40	1.29mi
14950 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0–1.5	766	$2,388	$3.12	43d	3	1.45mi
14950 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0–1.5	766	$2,230	$2.91	5d	4	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $507 · $6,084/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashexterior maint.insurancepoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,500 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,500 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,500 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,500 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,500 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,500 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,500 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $189,500 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,900 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    price $189,900 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    Absolutely Beautiful 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom, Single Level Patio Home Located in Desired Sun Village, Open Kitchen w/Appliances Included, Eat-It Kitchen Dining Room, Spacious Greatroom, Master Bedroom w/Walk-In Closet & Ensuite Master Bathroom, Split Floor Plan, 2nd Bedroom w/Walk-In Closet & Bathroom, Inside Laundry Room w/Washer & Dryer Included, New Interior Paint & All New Flooring, Covered Patio, 1 Car Covered Carport, HOA Inclusive Community (Exterior Maintenance, Building Insurance, Water/Sewer/Trash), Guarded & Gated 55+ Adult Community, Amazing Amenities w/Community Pool/Spa, Clubhouse, Workout Facility, Golf Course Community and More! Come Check It Out!

15. 2026-04-15
    price $191,500 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    Absolutely Beautiful 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom, Single Level Patio Home Located in Desired Sun Village, Open Kitchen w/Appliances Included, Eat-It Kitchen Dining Room, Spacious Greatroom, Master Bedroom w/Walk-In Closet & Ensuite Master Bathroom, Split Floor Plan, 2nd Bedroom w/Walk-In Closet & Bathroom, Inside Laundry Room w/Washer & Dryer Included, New Interior Paint & All New Flooring, Covered Patio, 1 Car Covered Carport, HOA Inclusive Community (Exterior Maintenance, Building Insurance, Water/Sewer/Trash), Guarded & Gated 55+ Adult Community, Amazing Amenities w/Community Pool/Spa, Clubhouse, Workout Facility, Golf Course Community and More! Come Check It Out!

16. 2026-04-07
    listed $192,000 Active 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    Absolutely Beautiful 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom, Single Level Patio Home Located in Desired Sun Village, Open Kitchen w/Appliances Included, Eat-It Kitchen Dining Room, Spacious Greatroom, Master Bedroom w/Walk-In Closet & Ensuite Master Bathroom, Split Floor Plan, 2nd Bedroom w/Walk-In Closet & Bathroom, Inside Laundry Room w/Washer & Dryer Included, New Interior Paint & All New Flooring, Covered Patio, 1 Car Covered Carport, HOA Inclusive Community (Exterior Maintenance, Building Insurance, Water/Sewer/Trash), Guarded & Gated 55+ Adult Community, Amazing Amenities w/Community Pool/Spa, Clubhouse, Workout Facility, Golf Course Community and More! Come Check It Out!

17. 2026-04-07
    historical

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    Absolutely Beautiful 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom, Single Level Patio Home Located in Desired Sun Village, Open Kitchen w/Appliances Included, Eat-It Kitchen Dining Room, Spacious Greatroom, Master Bedroom w/Walk-In Closet & Ensuite Master Bathroom, Split Floor Plan, 2nd Bedroom w/Walk-In Closet & Bathroom, Inside Laundry Room w/Washer & Dryer Included, New Interior Paint & All New Flooring, Covered Patio, 1 Car Covered Carport, HOA Inclusive Community (Exterior Maintenance, Building Insurance, Water/Sewer/Trash), Guarded & Gated 55+ Adult Community, Amazing Amenities w/Community Pool/Spa, Clubhouse, Workout Facility, Golf Course Community and More! Come Check It Out!

18. 2026-03-19
    price $192,999
19. 2026-03-11
    price $194,500
20. 2026-03-03
    price $194,900
21. 2026-02-24
    price $195,000
22. 2026-02-11
    listed $199,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $762 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,251 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$489/yr (+$41/mo · 64.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥113°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,615
• − Property taxes: −$762
• − Insurance: −$948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,810
• − Management: −$1,810
• − HOA: −$6,084
• − Depreciation: −$5,513
• Taxable loss: −$4,917
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,180
• After-tax cash flow: $-666/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,420
• Household income: $81,201
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1120.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.93%
• Current HPI: 254.7782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $189,900 ARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $191,500 ARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $192,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $192,999 ARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $194,500 ARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $194,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $195,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $199,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $762 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.