3017 Lanny Ln · Panama City, FL 32405

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,395 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1976 0.25 ac lot Est $347k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in ready: New AC, flooring, paint, window treatments . .. A simply sweet and simple home with a beautiful back yard in a nice neighborhood.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1976

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $189k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.48%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $347,355
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1103 W 28th Pl	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-1%)	15mo	$278,000	$201	81
1021 W W 28th Pl Pl	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,351 (-3%)	12mo	$255,500	$189	78
1114 Yale Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,465 (+5%)	15mo	$315,000	$215	61
2409 Nicole Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,487 (+7%)	2mo	$310,000	$208	57
934 Rosemont Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,547 (+11%)	10mo	$360,000	$233	55
2317 Rushes Ave Lot 624	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,395 (0%)	21mo	$419,288	$301	53
1086 Blazing Star St Lot 507	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+11%)	13mo	$386,891	$249	52
2320 Tallgrass St Lot 592	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+11%)	9mo	$395,865	$255	49
2330 Discovery Loop Lot 607 MAGNOLIA 3 PLAN	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+11%)	17mo	$406,442	$262	44
2314 Larkspur St Lot 639	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,530 (+10%)	15mo	$443,866	$290	39
2307 Daisy Ct Lot 631	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+11%)	20mo	$413,173	$266	38
1905 W 29th St	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,530 (+10%)	17mo	$322,000	$210	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-15,911
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-4,234
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,026 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$245 /mo · $2,939/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,664

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $393	-5% $339	+0% $286	+5% $232	+10% $179
Rent	-10% $126	-5% $206	+0% $286	+5% $366	+10% $446
Rate	-1.0pp $381	-0.5pp $334	base $286	+0.5pp $237	+1.0pp $187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3100 Sweetbay Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$2,168	$2.26	13d	26	0.28mi
1117 Blazing Star St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,500	$1.39	21d	1	0.39mi
300 W 23rd Pl Unit 1491599P Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1313	$2,592	$1.97	21d	1	1.09mi
3625 Frankford Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	943	$1,877	$1.99	13d	29	1.16mi
2870 Harrison Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1230	$1,770	$1.44	21d	1	1.30mi
3502 Jenks Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1176	$1,850	$1.57	13d	24	1.36mi
1345 Capri Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1572	$1,925	$1.22	13d	1	1.37mi
723 W 19th St Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,520	$1.30	21d	15	1.38mi
2950 Harrison Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1199	$1,725	$1.44	21d	6	1.39mi
1827 Balboa Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1440	$1,800	$1.25	13d	1	1.39mi
901 W 19th St Panama City, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,168	$1.48	21d	5	1.40mi
3900 Arbor Trace Dr Lynn Haven, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1520	$1,854	$1.22	13d	34	1.42mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2022-01-01
   historical
2. 2020-10-28
   listed $189,000
3. 2016-04-04
   soldstatus $125,000 144-char remark

   Show marketing remark (144 chars)

   Move in ready: New AC, flooring, paint, window treatments . .. A simply sweet and simple home with a beautiful back yard in a nice neighborhood.

4. 2016-04-04
   soldstatus $125,000

   Show marketing remark (144 chars)

   Move in ready: New AC, flooring, paint, window treatments . .. A simply sweet and simple home with a beautiful back yard in a nice neighborhood.

5. 2015-08-17
   listed $134,500 144-char remark

   Show marketing remark (144 chars)

   Move in ready: New AC, flooring, paint, window treatments . .. A simply sweet and simple home with a beautiful back yard in a nice neighborhood.

6. 1996-10-01
   soldstatus $31,400
7. 1992-07-01
   soldstatus $66,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,939 · $245/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,939 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,939
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,945
• − Management: −$1,945
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $454
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$109
• After-tax cash flow: $3,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1008.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+186.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2022-01-01 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2020-10-28 Listed $189,000 CPARMLS
• 2016-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2016-04-04 Sold (MLS) $125,000 CPARMLS
• 2015-08-17 Listed $134,500 CPARMLS
• 1996-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $31,400 Public Records
• 1992-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,939 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.