1707 Warrior Rd · Birmingham, AL 35208

$60,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1920 6,969 sqft lot Est $57k · 6% over ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Flip or Rental! Move In Ready , well maintained home. Total Electric! Has Heat and Air Unit. Dont miss this opportunity to own a cashflowing asset thats ready to cashflow.

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $507 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Central Park Elementary School (math 0% / reading 12%, grade F, #616 of 627 statewide, top 98%, 447 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools at 83% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,100 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.20%
• DSCR: 2.61
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $56,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1607 43rd St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,435 (+1%)	5mo	$85,000	$59	77
4637 Avenue R	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,378 (-3%)	3mo	$28,500	$21	70
1836 Bessemer Rd	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,258 (-11%)	4mo	$55,000	$44	68
1341 41st St	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,340 (-6%)	6mo	$106,000	$79	65
3300 Avenue Q	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,227 (-14%)	0mo	$35,000	$29	64
1523 44th St E	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,307 (-8%)	5mo	$133,000	$102	61
4728 Terrace	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-10%)	4mo	$29,900	$23	55
1527 46th Street Ensley	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,571 (+11%)	6mo	$35,000	$22	54
1825 49th St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,532 (+8%)	4mo	$51,000	$33	54
4829 Avenue	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,247 (-12%)	5mo	$50,000	$40	50
1508 W 51st St	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,264 (-11%)	2mo	$30,000	$24	44
1109 40th St	0.73mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,556 (+10%)	5mo	$90,000	$58	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $27,959
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.36×
• Total profit: $90,087
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35208

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,206 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,273/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $507

Break-even live

Break-even rent $564

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $541	-5% $524	+0% $507	+5% $490	+10% $473
Rent	-10% $412	-5% $459	+0% $507	+5% $554	+10% $602
Rate	-1.0pp $537	-0.5pp $522	base $507	+0.5pp $491	+1.0pp $475

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4105 Avenue Q Unit Q Birmingham, AL	3.0	3.0	1760	$1,250	$0.71	4d	1	0.13mi
1528 34th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	972	$1,073	$1.10	45d	1	0.22mi
1617 42nd Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1413	$1,030	$0.73	17d	1	0.23mi
1820 33rd St W Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.5	1212	$1,495	$1.23	45d	1	0.24mi
1540 42nd Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	899	$1,037	$1.15	45d	1	0.25mi
1520 41st Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,195	$1.12	45d	1	0.25mi
1524 33rd Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1222	$1,095	$0.90	22d	1	0.27mi
3221 Avenue S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,250	$1.05	25d	1	0.27mi
1520 33rd Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1215	$1,275	$1.05	13d	1	0.28mi
1526 42nd Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.5	1600	$1,050	$0.66	45d	1	0.28mi
1607 43rd Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,150	$0.80	25d	1	0.30mi
4612 Terrace S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1612	$1,050	$0.65	45d	1	0.31mi
1429 Warrior Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1036	$850	$0.82	17d	1	0.33mi
1604 44th Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	25d	1	0.34mi
2520 Avenue U Unit A Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	1260	$1,200	$0.95	45d	1	0.34mi
1420 Warrior Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1061	$1,050	$0.99	45d	1	0.34mi
4637 Court S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1225	$975	$0.80	3d	1	0.35mi
1417 34th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1103	$1,025	$0.93	45d	1	0.36mi
3009 Prince Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,095	$0.93	25d	1	0.38mi
1724 30th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1428	$1,395	$0.98	17d	1	0.38mi
4636 Avenue T Unit T Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.5	1842	$1,500	$0.81	3d	1	0.39mi
1509 44th Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1260	$1,123	$0.89	13d	1	0.42mi
1436 44th Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1435	$1,495	$1.04	3d	1	0.43mi
4619 Terrace Q Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1198	$900	$0.75	45d	1	0.43mi
1633 29th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,200	$0.72	45d	1	0.44mi
1306 35th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,173	$1.07	4d	1	0.45mi
1545 29th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1331	$1,200	$0.90	45d	1	0.45mi
4732 Court S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1372	$1,100	$0.80	45d	1	0.47mi
1515 45th Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1440	$875	$0.61	4d	1	0.47mi
4736 Court S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,200	$0.92	4d	1	0.48mi
4724 Court R Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1016	$895	$0.88	16d	1	0.49mi
1616 28th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1081	$1,100	$1.02	45d	1	0.52mi
2133 47th Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1308	$1,300	$0.99	45d	1	0.52mi
4801 Avenue S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1310	$1,000	$0.76	45d	1	0.52mi
1301 32nd Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1200	$975	$0.81	45d	1	0.53mi
4813 Court S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1118	$1,125	$1.01	45d	1	0.55mi
1563 Martin Ave Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1848	$1,495	$0.81	3d	1	0.55mi
1410 46th Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,000	$0.83	45d	1	0.57mi
2017 48th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,250	$0.90	45d	1	0.57mi
3017 Ensley Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1540	$1,400	$0.91	3d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2022-12-15
   status Pending
2. 2022-12-06
   historical Contingent
3. 2022-11-18
   listed $60,000 Active
4. 2008-06-27
   soldstatus $57,750
5. 2003-09-04
   soldstatus $69,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,273 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,273 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$1,273
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,158
• − Management: −$1,158
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $5,475
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,314
• After-tax cash flow: $4,768/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 13,412
• Household income: $38,561
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 573.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 94% White 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.99%
• Current HPI: 153.414
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.24%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-13.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2022-12-15 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-12-06 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-11-18 Listed $60,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2008-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $57,750 Public Records
• 2003-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $69,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,273 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.