727 Dora Celeste · Las Vegas, NM 87701

$124,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily · 178 Days on market

Built 1950 Poor condition $96/sqft · 30% below area Est $180k · 30% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The feel of rural living but minutes away from town. This 3 bedroom 1 bath home sits on a large lot. Home offers hardwood floors, and an open living/dining space. Outbuilding include shop and an attached carport and a storage shed. Mature fruit trees and space for those chickens you have always wanted. Call for your showing today.

Key facts

• Mature fruit trees
• Attached carport
• Large lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• OPEN LIVING DINING SPACE
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• MATURE FRUIT TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#22 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, amenities A; Watch: schools D-, crime F, commute F.
• Las Vegas City Public Schools (town): math 17% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #52 of 95 in NM (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Miguel County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.36%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,500
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -30.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
828 W West Roybal Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,348 (+4%)	4mo	$179,500	$133	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,838
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $19,996
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87701

• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,438 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,874/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $359	-5% $316	+0% $273	+5% $230	+10% $187
Rent	-10% $159	-5% $216	+0% $273	+5% $330	+10% $386
Rate	-1.0pp $336	-0.5pp $305	base $273	+0.5pp $241	+1.0pp $208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   The feel of rural living but minutes away from town. This 3 bedroom 1 bath home sits on a large lot. Home offers hardwood floors, and an open living/dining space. Outbuilding include shop and an attached carport and a storage shed. Mature fruit trees and space for those chickens you have always wanted. Call for your showing today.

2. 2026-01-23
   price $124,900 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   The feel of rural living but minutes away from town. This 3 bedroom 1 bath home sits on a large lot. Home offers hardwood floors, and an open living/dining space. Outbuilding include shop and an attached carport and a storage shed. Mature fruit trees and space for those chickens you have always wanted. Call for your showing today.

3. 2025-11-14
   listed $139,000 Active 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   The feel of rural living but minutes away from town. This 3 bedroom 1 bath home sits on a large lot. Home offers hardwood floors, and an open living/dining space. Outbuilding include shop and an attached carport and a storage shed. Mature fruit trees and space for those chickens you have always wanted. Call for your showing today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,874
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,380
• − Management: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $1,367
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$328
• After-tax cash flow: $2,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and rebuilding to become habitable and marketable. Significant investment is needed to bring it up to code and improve its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Missing and exposed
• Major Roof — Exposed beams and missing shingles
• Major Flooring — Exposed subflooring
• Major Interior walls — Exposed framing and missing drywall
• Major Bathrooms — Exposed framing and missing drywall
• Major Kitchen — Exposed framing and missing drywall
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible systems in good condition

Value-add opportunities

• Both Rebuild exterior siding — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity
• Both Replace roof — Essential for structural integrity and weather protection
• Both Rebuild flooring — Improves safety and structural integrity
• Both Rebuild interior walls and drywall — Improves safety and structural integrity
• Both Install new HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Missing and exposed	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · Exposed beams and missing shingles	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Exposed subflooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls · Exposed framing and missing drywall	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathrooms · Exposed framing and missing drywall	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen · Exposed framing and missing drywall	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible systems in good condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Rebuild exterior siding — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both Replace roof — Essential for structural integrity and weather protection ↑
• Both Rebuild flooring — Improves safety and structural integrity ↑
• Both Rebuild interior walls and drywall — Improves safety and structural integrity ↑
• Both Install new HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Vegas City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501530
• Math proficiency: 17% —
• Reading proficiency: 31% —
• Median HH income: $32,148
• Composite: 22.58/100
• National rank: #13441
• State rank: #52 of 95 in NM

Livability — Las Vegas

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #22
• US rank: #8084

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,864

Population outlook (San Miguel County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,750 people
• By 2030: 24,399 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 21,705 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 19,188 · -25.5%
• By 2075: 15,030 · -41.6%
• By 2100: 12,418 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 28% White 16% Native American 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 42%

Political lean MEDSL · San Miguel

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+27.9) · D 62.9% · R 35.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: 60.6pp · 2024: 27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+27.9 2020: D+38.7 2016: D+46.4 2012: D+56.8 2008: D+60.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.60%
• Current HPI: 166.7301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-10.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $124,900 NMMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $139,000 NMMLS