3706 E Lodgepole Dr · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$550,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,507 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2015 5,175 sqft lot Est $466k · 18% over $135/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into this single level home decorated like a model! Owner spared no expense on upgrades. Create a culinary delight at the breakfast bar while using the stainless steel appliances, recycle center, granite counter tops and under mounted Sink. Upgraded 20' tile. RO system and water softener. Security Door on front door, ceiling fans in every room and patio. The master retreat has a large walk in closet, an en-suite which includes a walk in shower, and dual sink vanities. Custom laundry. Garage service door. Entertain your guests in the professionally landscaped backyard completed with irrigation system. This master planned community includes winding lakes/streams, trail systems, covered picnic areas, basketball courts, amphitheaters, splash pads, BBQ grills, play structures, game tables & community parks. Brand new award winning Bridges Elementary within walking distance. Move in ready, come see it today!

Key facts

• Above-ground spa
• Private play pool
• Pergola

Tags

• PRIVATE PLAY POOL
• POOL CHILLER UNIT
• ABOVE-GROUND SPA
• BUILT-IN BBQ
• PERGOLA
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Current financing: VA (non-assumable)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee (maintenance of grounds included); Community amenities include a lake, playground and biking/walking paths

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces; 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener, direct access and attached garage cabinets
• Security: Fire sprinkler system
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership; Single-family residence
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Private pool; Above-ground heated private spa; Pool with variable-speed pump and play pool area; Built-in barbecue; Block fencing; Sprinklers in front and rear; Desert landscaping in front; Gravel/stone front and back; Synthetic grass in back

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Built-in microwave; Reverse osmosis water; Built-in recycling; Gas stub for range; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity in bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; 9+ foot flat ceilings; No interior steps; Pantry; Full bath in primary bedroom; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $351k (36.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (47.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (47.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Higley Unified School District (4248) (suburban): math 56% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #21 of 249 in AZ (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bridges Elementary School (math 80% / reading 79%, grade A, #13 of 1,109 statewide, top 1%, 759 students, 7% FRL); Sossaman Middle School (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #4 of 218 statewide, top 1%, 1,043 students, 13% FRL); Higley High School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade D, #46 of 381 statewide, top 12%, 2,137 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $50k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$80k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $320k; list at $550k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,816 (47.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.76%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 16.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $465,663
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3716 E Lodgepole Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,677 (+11%)	3mo	$521,700	$311	74
5338 S Barley Way	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,604 (+6%)	1mo	$490,000	$305	65
4127 E Narrowleaf Dr	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (-5%)	2mo	$425,000	$296	56
5314 S Barley Way	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (+6%)	6mo	$536,900	$335	55
3489 E Azalea Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,675 (+11%)	6mo	$518,000	$309	52
4111 E Appleby Dr	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (+6%)	2mo	$440,000	$274	52
5164 S Barley Way	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (+6%)	5mo	$470,000	$293	51
4092 E Donato Dr	0.51mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,604 (+6%)	5mo	$450,000	$281	50
5519 S Lombardy Way	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (+6%)	2mo	$575,000	$358	50
4239 E Azalea Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,604 (+6%)	4mo	$575,000	$358	48
4245 E Ficus Way	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (+6%)	6mo	$481,000	$300	44
4237 E Blue Spruce Ln	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (+6%)	6mo	$525,000	$327	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $171,415
• Equity at exit: $431,502

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $559,269
• Equity at exit: $869,887

Cash invested: $154,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 16.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,868 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,701/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $-1,124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,291

Max offer price $351,388

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,500
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3710 E Lodgepole Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1818	$2,650	$1.46	12d	1	0.04mi
3636 E Lodgepole Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1818	$3,075	$1.69	16d	1	0.07mi
5149 S Moccasin Trl Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1675	$2,750	$1.64	15d	1	0.46mi
4094 E Azalea Dr Gilbert, AZ	2.0	2.0	1308	$2,500	$1.91	24d	1	0.65mi
3486 E Anika Ct Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1749	$2,600	$1.49	43d	1	0.78mi
3432 E Strawberry Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2080	$3,695	$1.78	1d	1	0.80mi
5141 S Eucalyptus Dr Gilbert, AZ	2.0	2.0	1604	$3,700	$2.31	1d	1	0.85mi
4269 E Cassia Ln Gilbert, AZ	2.0	2.0	1407	$2,495	$1.77	24d	1	0.96mi
3462 E Powell Way Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,295	$1.38	24d	1	0.98mi
2954 E Coconino Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	2180	$2,590	$1.19	3d	1	1.02mi
4502 E Narrowleaf Dr Gilbert, AZ	2.0	2.0	1604	$2,500	$1.56	24d	1	1.03mi
3329 E Powell Ct Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,345	$1.58	15d	1	1.07mi
3868 E Palmer St Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1899	$2,000	$1.05	43d	1	1.09mi
6334 S Blake St Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,100	$1.48	43d	1	1.13mi
3808 E Flower Ct Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1628	$2,095	$1.29	5d	1	1.16mi
2927 E Mead Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1651	$2,250	$1.36	18d	1	1.20mi
4554 E Strawberry Dr Gilbert, AZ	2.0	2.0	1407	$2,500	$1.78	24d	1	1.35mi
3725 E Meadowview Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,750	$1.96	24d	1	1.36mi
4231 E Marshall Ave Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	2209	$2,700	$1.22	3d	1	1.38mi
4374 S Woodshed Rd Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1724	$2,249	$1.30	20d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $550,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $550,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,701 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,630 · $302/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,929/yr (+$161/mo · 113.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,809
• − Property taxes: −$1,701
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,753
• − Management: −$2,753
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$23,968
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,752
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,739/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Higley Unified School District (4248)
• NCES district ID: 0403780
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $82,526
• Composite: 51.7/100
• National rank: #1688
• State rank: #21 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilbert, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+61.8% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $550,000 ARMLS
• 2023-11-08 Rental Removed $2,395 ARMLS
• 2023-10-13 Price Changed $2,395 ARMLS
• 2023-10-06 Listed for Rent $3,295 ARMLS
• 2023-01-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2022-12-01 Price Changed $537,000 ARMLS
• 2022-11-10 Price Changed $537,500 ARMLS
• 2022-10-28 Price Changed $547,500 ARMLS
• 2022-10-13 Price Changed $567,500 ARMLS
• 2022-09-29 Price Changed $577,500 ARMLS
• 2022-09-21 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2022-08-03 Pending — ARMLS
• 2022-07-28 Price Changed $578,000 ARMLS
• 2022-07-21 Price Changed $578,500 ARMLS
• 2022-07-14 Price Changed $580,000 ARMLS
• 2022-07-12 Price Changed $588,500 ARMLS
• 2022-07-01 Listed $590,000 ARMLS
• 2018-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-07 Sold (MLS) $320,000 ARMLS
• 2018-09-04 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-08-17 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2018-08-06 Price Changed $319,900 ARMLS
• 2018-07-19 Price Changed $327,500 ARMLS
• 2018-07-06 Listed $340,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,701 · -6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.