2778 Sapps Rd · Aliceville, AL 35442

$79,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,326 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1978 1.48 ac lot ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss your chance on this home that sits on 1.48+/- acres with endless possible uses!

Key facts

• 1.48 acre lot
• Built 1978
• Listed 84 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#437 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Pickens County (rural): math 7% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #108 of 129 in AL (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Pickens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Pickens County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $80k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.16%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $33,539
• Equity at exit: $35,926

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.84×
• Total profit: $85,838
• Equity at exit: $55,367

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35442

• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,099 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $483/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $623

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-03
   listed $79,900 Active 90-char remark

   Show marketing remark (90 chars)

   Don't miss your chance on this home that sits on 1.48+/- acres with endless possible uses!

2. 2018-01-03
   soldstatus $49,875
3. 2017-06-13
   listed $57,500
4. 2007-06-15
   soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $483 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $483 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$483
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,055
• − Management: −$1,055
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $3,397
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$815
• After-tax cash flow: $3,694/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pickens County
• NCES district ID: 0102730
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,043
• Composite: 15.18/100
• National rank: #9342
• State rank: #108 of 129 in AL

Livability — Aliceville

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #437
• US rank: #23352

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,539

Population outlook (Pickens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,794 people
• By 2030: 25,224 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 27,833 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 30,077 · +26.4%
• By 2075: 34,120 · +43.4%
• By 2100: 35,388 · +48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 24% Hispanic / Latino 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Pickens

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 38.1% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -8.3pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+16.3 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+7.0 2008: R+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-11.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Listed $79,900 WAMLS
• 2018-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $49,875 Public Records
• 2017-06-13 Listed $57,500 WAMLS
• 2007-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $483 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.