222 Smith Hollow Rd · Church Hill, TN 37642

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1945 0.79 ac lot Est $104k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy peaceful country living in Church Hill! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on 0.79 acres and features a small creek. The property also includes multiple outdoor buildings, one with electricity, offering excellent space for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. With plenty of outdoor space and endless potential, this property is perfect for those seeking a quiet East Tennessee setting.

Key facts

• Space for hobbies
• Space for storage
• Workshop

Tags

• SMALL CREEK
• MULTIPLE OUTDOOR BUILDINGS
• SPACE FOR STORAGE
• SPACE FOR HOBBIES
• WORKSHOP
• OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Detached parking
• Utilities: Water: Private, Public, and Well available; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family house; One story
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Porch; Cleared and sloped topography; Outbuilding, shed(s), and workshop on the property; Has a view

Interior

• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Hardwood floors; Six total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($891/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.6% in Church Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#42 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawkins County (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #93 of 139 in TN (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Church Hill Middle School (math 24% / reading 22%, grade F, #168 of 333 statewide, top 51%, 350 students, 0% FRL); Volunteer High School (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #101 of 332 statewide, top 30%, 1,045 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 57% district-wide (57 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Hawkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hawkins County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $125k implies a 933% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,985 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.82%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $103,680
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
350 River Rd	0.24mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	13mo	$65,000	$68	74
147 Creek Rd	0.26mi	2/1.0	1,056 (+10%)	14mo	$200,000	$189	60
106 River Rd	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+15%)	2mo	$119,000	$108	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-15,548
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-7,536
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37642

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,110 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $342/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,016

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $145	-5% $110	+0% $74	+5% $39	+10% $3
Rent	-10% $-13	-5% $30	+0% $74	+5% $118	+10% $162
Rate	-1.0pp $137	-0.5pp $106	base $74	+0.5pp $42	+1.0pp $9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 386-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $342 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $888 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$546/yr (+$45/mo · 159.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$342
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,065
• − Management: −$1,065
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,215
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$292
• After-tax cash flow: $1,183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawkins County
• NCES district ID: 4701740
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $37,555
• Composite: 20.45/100
• National rank: #8581
• State rank: #93 of 139 in TN

Livability — Church Hill

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #42
• US rank: #6706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 14,491
• Population (ZIP): 14,491

Population outlook (Hawkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,226 people
• By 2030: 53,784 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 50,015 · -9.4%
• By 2050: 45,682 · -17.3%
• By 2075: 36,211 · -34.4%
• By 2100: 26,536 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Iranian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.8) · D 15.2% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.9pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -68.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.8 2020: R+65.8 2016: R+63.4 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.69%
• Current HPI: 297.1526
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+79.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $125,000 TVRMLS
• 2005-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $12,105 Public Records
• 2004-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $69,590 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $342 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.