2915 Country Club Blvd · Sugar Land, TX 77478

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,098 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1981 6,690 sqft lot $131/sqft · 28% below area Est $382k · 28% under $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated 3/2/2 patio home w/ beautiful atrium off the breakfast room & fenced yard in popular Sugar Creek Subdivision. Lovingly maintained. Features high-ceilings, crown molding, hardwoods, plantation shutters, granite, built-in's, wet bar, alarm, low-E insulated windows, sprinkler system. Kitchen remodeled by previous owners. Ft. Bend Schools. Owner is relocating. Don't miss this one!

Key facts

• 6,690 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1981

Tags

• GOLF COURSE COMMUNITY
• SUGAR CREEK COMMUNITY
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO HIGHWAYS
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING
• ZONED TO HIGHLY RATED SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of Sugar Creek HOA with annual fee of $650

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (all listed rooms on the first floor); Entry level: First floor; Facing direction not provided
• Construction: Brick and stucco exterior; Built in 1981; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Yard backs to greenbelt/park; Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (12 x 7); Breakfast nook (12 x 7); Dining room (12 x 12)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace; 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-362 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.6% in Sugar Land — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#38 in TX, #1,758 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dulles El (math 27% / reading 38%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 645 students, 67% FRL); Dulles Middle (math 39% / reading 48%, grade D, #530 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 1,359 students, 56% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,129 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.63%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $382,248
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -28.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
310 Power Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0	2,048 (-2%)	1mo	$375,000	$183	86
214 W Sutton Sq	0.50mi	3/2.0	2,058 (-2%)	6mo	$399,500	$194	68
227 Essex Pl	0.59mi	3/2.0	2,229 (+6%)	1mo	$325,000	$146	62
202 Essex Pl	0.57mi	3/2.0	2,056 (-2%)	11mo	$328,000	$160	61
4 Tiffany Sq	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,118 (+1%)	13mo	$375,000	$177	49
210 Buckingham Pl	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-14%)	15mo	$299,500	$166	48
3110 Salem Ct	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,318 (+10%)	3mo	$525,000	$226	47
307 Longview Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	2,314 (+10%)	23mo	$425,000	$184	45
3351 S Sutton Sq	0.66mi	3/2.5	2,347 (+12%)	6mo	$412,999	$176	42
22 Bendwood Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	2,393 (+14%)	16mo	$522,000	$218	40
227 Brocket Pl	0.64mi	3/2.0	2,250 (+7%)	22mo	$379,900	$169	39
227 E Sutton Sq	0.69mi	3/2.5	2,281 (+9%)	22mo	$429,900	$188	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-68,300
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-92,022
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77478

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,356 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$612 /mo · $7,344/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,814

Max offer price $211,129

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-206	-5% $-284	+0% $-362	+5% $-439	+10% $-517
Rent	-10% $-548	-5% $-455	+0% $-362	+5% $-269	+10% $-175
Rate	-1.0pp $-223	-0.5pp $-292	base $-362	+0.5pp $-433	+1.0pp $-505

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26 Wellington Dr Sugar Land, TX	3.0	3.5	3000	$2,690	$0.90	6d	1	0.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $275,000 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $275,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $275,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-04-28
   listed $275,000 Active 883-char remark
5. 2012-06-22
   soldstatus
6. 2012-06-20
   soldstatus 393-char remark

   Show marketing remark (393 chars)

   Updated 3/2/2 patio home w/ beautiful atrium off the breakfast room & fenced yard in popular Sugar Creek Subdivision. Lovingly maintained. Features high-ceilings, crown molding, hardwoods, plantation shutters, granite, built-in's, wet bar, alarm, low-E insulated windows, sprinkler system. Kitchen remodeled by previous owners. Ft. Bend Schools. Owner is relocating. Don't miss this one!

7. 2012-06-06
   historical 393-char remark

   Show marketing remark (393 chars)

   Updated 3/2/2 patio home w/ beautiful atrium off the breakfast room & fenced yard in popular Sugar Creek Subdivision. Lovingly maintained. Features high-ceilings, crown molding, hardwoods, plantation shutters, granite, built-in's, wet bar, alarm, low-E insulated windows, sprinkler system. Kitchen remodeled by previous owners. Ft. Bend Schools. Owner is relocating. Don't miss this one!

8. 2012-03-14
   listed $229,000 393-char remark

   Show marketing remark (393 chars)

   Updated 3/2/2 patio home w/ beautiful atrium off the breakfast room & fenced yard in popular Sugar Creek Subdivision. Lovingly maintained. Features high-ceilings, crown molding, hardwoods, plantation shutters, granite, built-in's, wet bar, alarm, low-E insulated windows, sprinkler system. Kitchen remodeled by previous owners. Ft. Bend Schools. Owner is relocating. Don't miss this one!

9. 2009-12-23
   soldstatus
10. 2009-12-14
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    LIGHT & BRIGHT BEAUTIFULLY DECORATED PATIO HOUSE -HIGH CEILINGS, CROWN MOLDING, HARDWOOD FLOORS & PLANTATION SHUTERS. REDONE KITCHEN W/GRANITE, APPLIANCES, SINK & FIXTURES. LOTS OF BUILT-INS WET BAR

11. 2009-08-30
    historical

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    LIGHT & BRIGHT BEAUTIFULLY DECORATED PATIO HOUSE -HIGH CEILINGS, CROWN MOLDING, HARDWOOD FLOORS & PLANTATION SHUTERS. REDONE KITCHEN W/GRANITE, APPLIANCES, SINK & FIXTURES. LOTS OF BUILT-INS WET BAR

12. 2009-07-17
    listed $227,500

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    LIGHT & BRIGHT BEAUTIFULLY DECORATED PATIO HOUSE -HIGH CEILINGS, CROWN MOLDING, HARDWOOD FLOORS & PLANTATION SHUTERS. REDONE KITCHEN W/GRANITE, APPLIANCES, SINK & FIXTURES. LOTS OF BUILT-INS WET BAR

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,344 · $612/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,344 · $612/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$7,344
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,262
• − Management: −$2,262
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$9,024
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,166
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sugar Land

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #1758

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sugar Land, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 168,209
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,182
• Household income: $118,495
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 683.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 34% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Chinese 9% Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.90%
• Current HPI: 233.9823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+20.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2012-06-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-06-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-06-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-03-14 Listed $229,000 HARMLS
• 2009-12-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-12-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-08-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-07-17 Listed $227,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,344 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.