Seaberry Plan · Waxahachie, TX 75165

$499,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,478 sqft · SingleFamily · 873 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Classic Series Seaberry floor plan is a two-story home with various room combinations. The floor plan includes four bedrooms, three and a half bathrooms, a dining room, media room, and a study. This floor plan allows you to have the option for a fifth bedroom with two of the following: dining room, media room, or study. You also have the option for a 6th bedroom with one of the following: dining room or study. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about this and other available plans.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 872 days

🏗️ New construction. The $499,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $537,373.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $500k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (33.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (41.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $292k (41.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#71 in TX, #2,592 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: commute F.
• Waxahachie ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #253 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Felty El (math 60% / reading 50%, grade C, #602 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 570 students, 34% FRL); Howard J H (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 758 students, 49% FRL); Waxahachie H S (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 2,963 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 1068 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 873 days — a 12% lower offer ($440k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $291,593 (41.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 873 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.25%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $537,373
• List price: $499,990
• Delta: -6.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
628 Sirius Dr	0.20mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,479 (0%)	4mo	$534,651	$154	80
214 Memory Ln	0.19mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,558 (+2%)	1mo	$574,236	$161	80
119 Tetrad Cir	0.42mi	4/4.0	3,479 (0%)	0mo	$570,415	$164	78
621 Sagebrush Ln	0.24mi	4/3.0	3,285 (-6%)	7mo	$525,292	$160	72
219 Memory Ln	0.23mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,696 (+6%)	1mo	$541,196	$146	71
643 Sirius Dr	0.14mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,695 (+6%)	10mo	$535,990	$145	68
523 Stillwater Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0	3,245 (-7%)	5mo	$499,900	$154	61
127 Tetrad Cir	0.44mi	4/3.5	3,736 (+7%)	9mo	$644,508	$173	60
178 Honey Ln	0.35mi	4/3.5	2,980 (-14%)	0mo	$549,540	$184	59
462 Wintergreen Dr	0.69mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,209 (-8%)	1mo	$545,000	$170	47
533 Hay Meadow Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5	3,020 (-13%)	10mo	$430,000	$142	47
309 Western Sky Ln	0.59mi	4/3.0	3,046 (-12%)	7mo	$415,000	$136	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-175,664
• Equity at exit: $80,124

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.75×
• Total profit: $-263,555
• Equity at exit: $46,462

Cash invested: $150,465 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 48 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.7 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $519,990 ($154/sqft)
• Median days on market: 423 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75165

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 1068
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,916 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,818
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$672 /mo · $8,061/yr
• Insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $-1,410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,701

Max offer price $333,332

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,039	-5% $-1,224	+0% $-1,410	+5% $-1,596	+10% $-1,781
Rent	-10% $-1,640	-5% $-1,525	+0% $-1,410	+5% $-1,295	+10% $-1,180
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,139	-0.5pp $-1,273	base $-1,410	+0.5pp $-1,549	+1.0pp $-1,691

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,343
• Closing costs: $16,121
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
531 Harvest Grove Dr Waxahachie, TX	4.0	3.0	2355	$3,000	$1.27	92d	1	0.46mi
1107 Wheatland Ter Waxahachie, TX	4.0	2.5	2602	$3,000	$1.15	92d	1	0.66mi
218 Mockingbird Dr Waxahachie, TX	3.0	2.5	2417	$2,750	$1.14	92d	1	0.89mi
213 Nocona Dr Waxahachie, TX	5.0	2.0	2516	$9,750	$3.88	92d	1	0.95mi
211 Sendero Dr Waxahachie, TX	3.0	2.0	2302	$2,540	$1.10	28d	1	1.01mi
508 Bush Ave Waxahachie, TX	5.0	3.5	3269	$3,750	$1.15	69d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $499,990 Active 873 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $499,990 Active 871 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $499,990 Active 870 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $499,990 Active 869 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   pricedays on market $499,990 Active 868 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $509,990 Active 865 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $509,990 Active 864 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $509,990 Active 863 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $509,990 Active 862 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $509,990 Active 860 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $509,990 Active 858 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $509,990 Active 857 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $509,990 Active 856 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $509,990 Active 855 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $509,990 Active 854 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $509,990 Active 852 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $509,990 Active 851 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $509,990 Active 850 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $509,990 Active 849 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $509,990 Active 848 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $509,990 Active 847 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $509,990 Active 846 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $509,990 Active 845 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $509,990 Active 844 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $509,990 Active 843 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $509,990 Active 841 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $509,990 Active 840 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $509,990 Active 839 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $509,990 Active 838 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $509,990 Active 837 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $509,990 Active 836 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $509,990 Active 835 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $509,990 Active 834 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $509,990 Active 833 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $509,990 Active 832 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $509,990 Active 831 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $509,990 Active 830 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $509,990 Active 826 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $509,990 Active 825 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $509,990 Active 822 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $509,990 Active 821 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $509,990 Active 820 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $509,990 Active 819 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $509,990 Active 817 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $509,990 Active 816 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $509,990 Active 813 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $509,990 Active 812 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $509,990 Active 811 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $509,990 Active 808 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $509,990 Active 807 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,991
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,101
• − Property taxes: −$8,061
• − Insurance: −$2,687
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,799
• − Management: −$2,799
• − Depreciation: −$15,633
• Taxable loss: −$27,089
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,501
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Felty El C TX #602/4,322 Nat'l #9,637/41,679 Middle Howard J H D- TX #540/1,662 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Waxahachie H S F TX #730/1,632 Nat'l #7,572/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waxahachie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844730
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,434
• Composite: 39.14/100
• National rank: #4034
• State rank: #253 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Waxahachie

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #2592

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ellis County · 194,556 people
• City population: 67,417
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,513
• Household income: $86,391
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 14% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.58%
• Current HPI: 255.0247
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.40%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $552,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-11 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-04-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-03-08 Listed $535,990 Zillow