12108 N Lakewood Dr · Cleveland, TX 77372

$130,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1969 1.83 ac lot $89/sqft · 33% below area Est $193k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 12108 N Lakewood Drive a fantastic opportunity for investors, builders, or dreamers! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious ~1.83-acre lot is tucked away on a quiet street in the peaceful town of Splendora. The property offers endless potential. Renovate the existing home to your taste or start fresh and build your dream home surrounded by mature trees and plenty of open space. With room to expand, add a workshop, or create your ideal country retreat, the possibilities are endless. Conveniently located near local amenities yet offering the privacy and tranquility of a rural setting, this is your chance to own a piece of land in a desirable area at an incredible value. Don’t miss out — come see the potential today!

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Privacy
• Open space

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• QUIET STREET
• MATURE TREES
• OPEN SPACE
• PRIVACY
• TRANQUILITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 550 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.67%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,108
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -32.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
—	0.70mi	5/1.0 (+1)	1,363 (-6%)	15mo	$85,000	$62	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-9,877
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $6,783
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$259 /mo · $3,112/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,800

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $244	-5% $207	+0% $170	+5% $133	+10% $97
Rent	-10% $11	-5% $91	+0% $170	+5% $250	+10% $329
Rate	-1.0pp $236	-0.5pp $203	base $170	+0.5pp $136	+1.0pp $102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25507 Greenwood Canyon Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1950	$2,320	$1.19	0d	1	1.30mi
10506 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	25d	1	1.41mi
10478 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,595	$0.96	25d	1	1.47mi
10474 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 175 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 169 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 168 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 167 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $130,000 Active 164 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 163 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 162 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 161 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 160 DOM
16. 2026-04-03
    price $130,000 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    Welcome to 12108 N Lakewood Drive a fantastic opportunity for investors, builders, or dreamers! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious ~1.83-acre lot is tucked away on a quiet street in the peaceful town of Splendora. The property offers endless potential. Renovate the existing home to your taste or start fresh and build your dream home surrounded by mature trees and plenty of open space. With room to expand, add a workshop, or create your ideal country retreat, the possibilities are endless. Conveniently located near local amenities yet offering the privacy and tranquility of a rural setting, this is your chance to own a piece of land in a desirable area at an incredible value. Don’t miss out — come see the potential today!

17. 2025-12-22
    listed $160,000 Active 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    Welcome to 12108 N Lakewood Drive a fantastic opportunity for investors, builders, or dreamers! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious ~1.83-acre lot is tucked away on a quiet street in the peaceful town of Splendora. The property offers endless potential. Renovate the existing home to your taste or start fresh and build your dream home surrounded by mature trees and plenty of open space. With room to expand, add a workshop, or create your ideal country retreat, the possibilities are endless. Conveniently located near local amenities yet offering the privacy and tranquility of a rural setting, this is your chance to own a piece of land in a desirable area at an incredible value. Don’t miss out — come see the potential today!

18. 2012-05-08
    soldstatus
19. 2012-05-04
    soldstatus
20. 2009-04-02
    soldstatus
21. 2009-01-06
    historical
22. 2008-12-12
    listed $45,000
23. 2007-08-06
    historical
24. 2007-02-13
    listed $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,112 · $259/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,112 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$3,112
• − Insurance: −$5,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,935
• − Management: −$1,935
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $368
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$88
• After-tax cash flow: $1,953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+120.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2012-05-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-05-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-04-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-01-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-12-12 Listed $45,000 HARMLS
• 2007-08-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-02-13 Listed $59,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+12.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,112 · +77.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.