109B Elmhurst · South Lockport, NY 14094

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 360 Days on market

Built 2016 Est $55k · 46% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 109B Elmhurst- A charming 2016 Mobile Home in the woodlands. Don’t miss this inviting and well maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, home located in the highly desirable Woodlands Community. Offering 1,216 sq ft of comfortable living space , the home features an open-concept floor plan, perfect for both everyday living and entertainment. The spacious kitchen includes all appliances, ample cabinetry, and generous counter space. The master suite is privately located with its own bathroom, creating a peaceful retreat. First Floor laundry for convenience. Whether you’re a first-time home buyer or looking to downsize- this home is move in ready and full of potential. Enjoy all

Key facts

• Master suite
• Community center
• Exercise room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• MASTER SUITE
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• EXERCISE ROOM
• COMMUNITY CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $855

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; Single-story; Existing (resale)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Bedroom on main level; Varied flooring
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $599 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 1.5% in South Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#633 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Lockport City School District (town): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #452 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 360 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 360 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.15%
• DSCR: 2.43
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $54,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 Ash St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	0mo	$75,000	$62	84
464 Jim Kelly Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (0%)	2mo	$55,000	$45	82
378 Birchwood	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,095 (-10%)	2mo	$35,000	$32	70
433 Chestnut Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	5mo	$55,000	$41	69
349 S Brookside	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-10%)	0mo	$37,500	$34	67
288 Fox Hunt Dr	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,164 (-4%)	2mo	$45,600	$39	65
1352 Fernwood Dr	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (-5%)	4mo	$39,000	$34	61
643 Birchwood Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,366 (+12%)	6mo	$69,000	$51	60
1070 Fernwood Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	5mo	$72,000	$54	58
1158 Timberwood Ct	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,064 (-12%)	6mo	$60,000	$56	52
1289 Norwood Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-12%)	5mo	$37,000	$35	49
125 Sherwood Dr	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-13%)	2mo	$55,500	$53	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $26,239
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $76,210
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14094

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,458 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $599

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $655	-5% $627	+0% $599	+5% $572	+10% $544
Rent	-10% $484	-5% $542	+0% $599	+5% $657	+10% $715
Rate	-1.0pp $640	-0.5pp $620	base $599	+0.5pp $579	+1.0pp $558

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5834 S Transit Rd Lockport, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	2d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,900 Active 360 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 357 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 356 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 355 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 354 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 352 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 351 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 349 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 348 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 347 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 346 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 343 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 342 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 341 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 340 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 339 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    status Active
18. 2026-05-12
    status Pending
19. 2025-06-20
    listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,399
• − Management: −$1,399
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $6,295
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,511
• After-tax cash flow: $5,682/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockport City School District
• NCES district ID: 3617670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,793
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #3997
• State rank: #452 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Lockport

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #633
• US rank: #11642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Lockport, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 50,153
• Household income: $75,427
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1112.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.57%
• Current HPI: 303.6109
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-06-20 Listed $79,900 WNYREIS