5314 Spearpoint Pt · Lake Shastina, CA 96094

$240,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 1970 Average condition 1,742 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lakefront condo with expansive and beautiful views of the Lake Shastina. Located in the Spearpoint Community of Lake Shastina in Weed. This 3 bedroom 3 bathroom condo features two decks, one upstairs, and one down. Both downstairs bedrooms have deck access and views as well. Large picture windows upstairs allow you to enjoy the view year round. This home is waiting for its next owner, or if you prefer, keep the tenant in place, as she would love to stay. It makes a great rental property or use it for yourself as a primary residence or vacation property. Come take a look! Square footage should be verified by any prospective buyer.

Key facts

• 1,742 sq ft lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 13 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $240,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$484,515) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $79 ($953/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.8% in Lake Shastina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Yreka Union High (town): math 25% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #630 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Big Springs Elementary (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #779 of 1,571 statewide, top 52%, 153 students, 61% FRL); Yreka High (math 37% / reading 82%, grade C+, #205 of 1,170 statewide, top 19%, 669 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 278 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 50 units permitted in Siskiyou County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Siskiyou County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.42%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $484,515
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5541 Lake Shastina Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,984 (+7%)	4mo	$375,000	$189	73
5136 Spear Point Rd	0.24mi	3/3.0	1,600 (-14%)	2mo	$270,000	$169	65
5059 Indian Is	0.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,982 (+7%)	2mo	$591,000	$298	60
15014 Mountain Wood Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,939 (+5%)	4mo	$380,000	$196	54
15906 Wampum Way	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,918 (+4%)	21mo	$335,000	$175	52
5539 Rainbow Cir	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,888 (+2%)	23mo	$329,000	$174	50
4711 Elkridge Rd	0.58mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,800 (-3%)	24mo	$420,000	$233	41
4703 Lake Shastina Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (-14%)	4mo	$310,000	$194	37
16724 Rossburg Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,674 (-10%)	24mo	$383,000	$229	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-33,799
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-22,784
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96094

• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,600/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,099

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $245	-5% $162	+0% $79	+5% $-4	+10% $-86
Rent	-10% $-94	-5% $-7	+0% $79	+5% $166	+10% $253
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $140	base $79	+0.5pp $17	+1.0pp $-46

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5407 Stag Mountain Rd Weed, CA	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,200	$1.52	45d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   listed $240,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,600
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$3,050
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$732
• After-tax cash flow: $1,685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This lakefront property offers beautiful views but requires moderate repairs and updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered appearance
• Moderate Front porch flooring — Signs of wear
• Moderate Carpeted flooring — Worn appearance
• Moderate Paint — Faded in some areas
• Minor Curtains — Old and outdated

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Rental Replace worn carpet — New carpet improves comfort and reduces maintenance
• Both Replace curtains — Fresh curtains enhance both curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Replace exterior siding — New siding improves curb appeal and enhances home value
• Both Replace front porch flooring — New flooring improves both curb appeal and interior comfort

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Front porch flooring · Signs of wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Carpeted flooring · Worn appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Paint · Faded in some areas	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Curtains · Old and outdated	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$12,500–63,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Rental Replace worn carpet — New carpet improves comfort and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both Replace curtains — Fresh curtains enhance both curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace exterior siding — New siding improves curb appeal and enhances home value ↑
• Both Replace front porch flooring — New flooring improves both curb appeal and interior comfort ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yreka Union High
• NCES district ID: 0643410
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $34,206
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #8184
• State rank: #630 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lake Shastina

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Shastina, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,674

Population outlook (Siskiyou County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,337 people
• By 2030: 36,930 · -6.1%
• By 2040: 32,367 · -17.7%
• By 2050: 29,030 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 23,534 · -40.2%
• By 2100: 19,312 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Siskiyou

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 38.8% · R 58.0% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+20.7 2012: R+15.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.11%
• Current HPI: 152.605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — SMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $240,000 SMLS