1541 Panthers Ln #13 · Modesto, CA 95355

$249,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,966 sqft · Manufactured · 61 Days on market

Built 1985 Est $246k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on the market! This large beautiful spacious 4-bedroom upgraded home. One of the biggest manufactured homes in the park. Like to cook? A chef's delight-with an amazing updated kitchen, lots of cabinets and countertop prep space, Stainless steel appliances, large s/s kitchen sink, a wall full of pantry cabinets. This home had been gutted to the studs w/ all new drywall & textured walls. Walk into this inviting open living room with partial vaulted ceiling, take in all the natural light! Primary bedroom is big with its own en-suite, plantation shutters and a HUGE walk-in closet! Three more spacious bedrooms. The laundry room is big too with even more added cabinet space and a craft

Key facts

• Open living room
• Pantry cabinets
• Craft work bench

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• PANTRY CABINETS
• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• WALK IN CLOSET
• CRAFT WORK BENCH
• TRIPLE WIDE HOME

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Land lease (monthly): $945

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking; 4 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Gas plumbed; 220 volts in kitchen
• Home design: Manufactured in park (triple wide); Updated / remodeled; Madison model; Built in 1985
• Construction: Shingle roof; Wood skirting
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Corner lot; Close to clubhouse; Manual sprinkler front and rear; Storage / shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry cabinet; Synthetic counters; Free-standing gas range; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Railed porch and uncovered patio; Storage area / shed
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with hookups; 220-volt outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $611 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $235k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Empire Union Elementary (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #398 of 517 in CA (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 222 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.47%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,750
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1541 Panthers Ln #13	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,966 (0%)	1mo	$245,000	$125	99
1505 - #22 Panthers Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (-12%)	14mo	$260,000	$150	61
1509 Playground	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-14%)	10mo	$170,000	$101	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-6,589
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $24,571
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95355

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,959 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,748/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $611

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,186

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4709 Via Giardiano Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	2038	$3,200	$1.57	21d	1	0.37mi
3925 Lookout Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	3.0	1952	$2,700	$1.38	14d	1	0.84mi
2612 Hawaiian Petrel Ave Modesto, CA	4.0	3.0	2139	$2,580	$1.21	14d	1	0.93mi
1217 Kara Ln Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1559	$2,395	$1.54	23d	1	1.19mi
757 Waddell Way Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,700	$1.54	14d	1	1.25mi
3016 Lake Park Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	2430	$2,600	$1.07	14d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $249,900 Pending 61 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $249,900 Contingent (No Show) 61 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,748
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,841
• − Management: −$2,841
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable income: $3,562
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$855
• After-tax cash flow: $6,474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Empire Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0612690
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,808
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8193
• State rank: #398 of 517 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 60,710
• Household income: $86,849
• Rent vs Own: 37.7% rent · 62.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2521.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Asian 8% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -458.02%
• Current HPI: 277.8565
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B