40722 Mostyn Lake Dr · Magnolia, TX 77354

$314,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,697 sqft · SingleFamily · 26 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,600 sqft lot $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy relaxed living at Mostyn Springs, a charming community in the peaceful countryside of Magnolia, TX, with convenient access to top-rated schools, shopping, and dining. Step into the stunning Benchmark plan, featuring an open-concept layout where the kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining area and family room, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, 42" custom cabinets & omega stone countertops, while vinyl plank flooring in the main areas and tile in the wet spaces add durability. The primary suite offers a spacious shower, dual sinks, and an oversized closet with a convenient door to the utility room. Upstairs, the ga

Key facts

• Custom cabinets
• Vinyl plank flooring
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• OMEGA STONE COUNTERTOPS
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• TILE IN WET SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by Lead Association Management; Annual association fee of $800

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); Faces south
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick, cement siding, and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fenced backyard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Kitchen island; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16x14); Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (12x10, 12x10, 11x10); Total of 4 bedrooms plus additional rooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank flooring; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with private bath; Solid surface counters; Tub with shower; Walk-in pantry; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room combo; Programmable thermostat; Insulated doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $314,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $326,337.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-503 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (26.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $230,338 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.60%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $326,337
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40748 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.05mi	4/3.5	2,689 (-0%)	1mo	$319,990	$119	96
40704 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.04mi	4/3.5	2,663 (-1%)	6mo	$318,990	$120	91
13074 Sarah Springs Way	0.10mi	4/3.5	2,695 (-0%)	6mo	$319,990	$119	90
40712 Pessi Rd	0.24mi	4/3.5	2,689 (-0%)	7mo	$312,990	$116	82
40732 Pessi Rd	0.22mi	4/3.5	2,689 (-0%)	11mo	$317,990	$118	80
12747 Dina Springs Ln	0.25mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,760 (+2%)	4mo	$332,990	$121	74
40533 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,608 (-3%)	10mo	$315,000	$121	64
40792 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,377 (-12%)	9mo	$329,990	$139	62
40588 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,370 (-12%)	2mo	$328,990	$139	61
40569 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.29mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,897 (+7%)	10mo	$379,000	$131	59
12413 S Hill Ct	0.66mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,860 (+6%)	4mo	$339,000	$119	49
40931 Westley Ln	0.59mi	4/3.5	3,053 (+13%)	3mo	$724,900	$237	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $139,749
• Equity at exit: $293,990

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.66×
• Total profit: $425,882
• Equity at exit: $634,001

Cash invested: $91,374 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,303 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,711
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$408 /mo · $4,895/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,940

Max offer price $253,614

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-277	-5% $-390	+0% $-503	+5% $-615	+10% $-728
Rent	-10% $-685	-5% $-594	+0% $-503	+5% $-412	+10% $-321
Rate	-1.0pp $-338	-0.5pp $-420	base $-503	+0.5pp $-587	+1.0pp $-673

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,584
• Closing costs: $9,790
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $314,990 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $314,990 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $324,990 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $324,990 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $324,990 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $324,990 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $324,990 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $324,990 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $324,990 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $324,990 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $324,990 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $324,990 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $324,990 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $324,990 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $324,990 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $324,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,280
• − Property taxes: −$4,895
• − Insurance: −$1,632
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,211
• − Management: −$2,211
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$9,493
• Taxable loss: −$11,886
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,853
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior trim and a thorough gutter inspection.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Inspect and clean gutters — Prevents water damage and improves home's appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Inspect and clean gutters — Prevents water damage and improves home's appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $324,990 HARMLS