410 Harrison St · Ellisville, MS 39437

$165,000

3 bd · 0.5 ba · 1,269 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1965 0.50 ac lot $130/sqft · 298% above area ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a move-in ready home under $200K, this one is for you! Located just off I 59 in the heart of Ellisville, this home features 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. All appliances are included, even the washer and dryer. South Jones School District. Storage building stays.

Key facts

• Move in ready
• 0.5 acre lot
• Parking

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• SOUTH JONES SCHOOL DISTRICT
• STORAGE BUILDING STAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $511 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#123 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Jones County School District (rural): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #40 of 130 in MS (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 23 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jones County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.27%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $41,471
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: 297.86%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
409 South Deason St	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,240 (-2%)	22mo	$39,500	$32	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $5,800
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $46,910
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39437

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,619/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $511

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,353

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
321 Highway 11 N Ellisville, MS	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,000	$1.32	21d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $165,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $165,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-04-23
   price $165,000 271-char remark

   Show marketing remark (271 chars)

   Looking for a move-in ready home under $200K, this one is for you! Located just off I 59 in the heart of Ellisville, this home features 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. All appliances are included, even the washer and dryer. South Jones School District. Storage building stays.

8. 2026-03-23
   listed $175,000 Active 271-char remark

   Show marketing remark (271 chars)

   Looking for a move-in ready home under $200K, this one is for you! Located just off I 59 in the heart of Ellisville, this home features 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. All appliances are included, even the washer and dryer. South Jones School District. Storage building stays.

9. 2025-11-07
   price $187,000
10. 2025-10-21
    listed $199,000 Active
11. 2025-10-01
    listed $213,000 Active
12. 2025-04-28
    listed $215,000 Active
13. 2025-03-23
    listed $239,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,619 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,619 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,619
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $3,674
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$882
• After-tax cash flow: $5,251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jones County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802280
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,051
• Composite: 33.24/100
• National rank: #5520
• State rank: #40 of 130 in MS

Livability — Ellisville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #13645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellisville, MS
• City population: 12,287
• Population (ZIP): 12,287

Population outlook (Jones County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,800 people
• By 2030: 68,773 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 68,087 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 66,241 · -3.7%
• By 2075: 58,600 · -14.8%
• By 2100: 45,744 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jones

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.8) · D 26.2% · R 73.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.6pp · 2024: -46.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.8 2020: R+42.2 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+38.2 2008: R+38.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.84%
• Current HPI: 142.2369
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-31.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $165,000 LBOR
• 2026-03-23 Listed $175,000 LBOR
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $187,000 LBOR
• 2025-10-21 Listed $199,000 LBOR
• 2025-10-01 Listed $213,000 LBOR
• 2025-04-28 Listed $215,000 LBOR
• 2025-03-23 Listed $239,900 LBOR

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,619 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.