1004 Vesper Ln · Fayetteville, NC 28311

$188,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 137 Days on market

Built 1982 0.31 ac lot Est $202k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 1004 Vesper Ln, a home that exudes charm and sophistication. The kitchen is a chef's dream, boasting an accent backsplash that adds a touch of elegance to the space. The culinary experience is further enhanced by the inclusion of all stainless steel appliances, ensuring a modern and efficient cooking environment. Step outside to a spacious deck, perfect for entertaining or simply enjoying a quiet evening under the stars. The property also features a fenced-in backyard, providing privacy and a safe space for outdoor activities. This home is a perfect blend of style and comfort, making it a must-see for those seeking a unique living experience.

Key facts

• Spacious deck
• Fenced-in backyard
• Accent backsplash

Tags

• ACCENT BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SPACIOUS DECK
• FENCED-IN BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: 1 open parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Composition/shingle roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Public-maintained road access; Lot size about 0.31 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Hardwood and tile flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-114 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (10.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westarea Elementary (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,242 of 1,410 statewide, top 90%, 559 students, 100% FRL); Luther Nick Jeralds Middle (math 13% / reading 24%, grade F, #436 of 475 statewide, top 93%, 616 students, 100% FRL); E E Smith High (math 42% / reading 41%, grade F, #381 of 535 statewide, top 72%, 1,004 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 363 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,087 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.60%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $202,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1016 Vesper Ln	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,220 (-2%)	10mo	$180,000	$148	85
1040 Vesper Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,270 (+2%)	11mo	$221,700	$175	80
652 Dowfield Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,258 (+2%)	1mo	$208,000	$165	76
1109 Vesper Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+10%)	1mo	$245,000	$179	73
3940 Foster Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,290 (+4%)	11mo	$190,000	$147	64
901 Drew Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,137 (-8%)	6mo	$190,000	$167	63
3419 Sandystone Cir	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,369 (+10%)	9mo	$207,000	$151	57
698 Dowfield Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,111 (-10%)	3mo	$128,000	$115	52
683 Dowfield Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,066 (-14%)	3mo	$175,999	$165	50
722 Hilton Dr	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,054 (-15%)	5mo	$137,000	$130	48
780 Joefield Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+13%)	2mo	$228,000	$162	42
693 Dowfield Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+14%)	14mo	$230,000	$163	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-37,975
• Equity at exit: $28,031

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-43,463
• Equity at exit: $16,255

Cash invested: $52,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28311

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,471 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$986
• Tax from tax record: −$212 /mo · $2,540/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $-114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,615

Max offer price $167,883

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-7	-5% $-61	+0% $-114	+5% $-167	+10% $-220
Rent	-10% $-230	-5% $-172	+0% $-114	+5% $-56	+10% $2
Rate	-1.0pp $-19	-0.5pp $-66	base $-114	+0.5pp $-163	+1.0pp $-212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,000
• Closing costs: $5,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3523 Rosehill Rd Fayetteville, NC	4.0	1.0	1448	$1,450	$1.00	15d	1	0.25mi
3613 Pine Lake Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$1,645	$1.47	15d	31	0.29mi
3446 Sandystone Cir Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1489	$1,700	$1.14	25d	1	0.35mi
848 Tamarack Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0	705	$1,171	$1.66	15d	49	0.38mi
3963 Loufield Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,500	$1.04	25d	1	0.47mi
4202 S Dowfield Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	800	$930	$1.16	25d	1	0.55mi
4206 S Dowfield Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	25d	1	0.55mi
715 Ashburton Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,600	$1.25	25d	1	0.67mi
909 Southview Cir Unit B Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	923	$945	$1.02	25d	1	0.75mi
733 Ashburton Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1118	$1,300	$1.16	25d	1	0.77mi
4310 Coolidge St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1212	$1,250	$1.03	15d	1	0.83mi
4736 Rosehill Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,240	$1.24	25d	1	0.88mi
633 Elk Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,000	$1.00	25d	1	0.97mi
927 Fiske Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	926	$1,200	$1.30	25d	1	1.19mi
2523 Mulranny Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1112	$1,589	$1.43	15d	9	1.22mi
1216 Superior Pointe Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1288	$1,450	$1.13	25d	1	1.22mi
790 Arthington St Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.5	1000	$1,350	$1.35	25d	1	1.23mi
5523 Livingston Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	1.5	1305	$1,600	$1.23	25d	1	1.27mi
318 Nugget Ct Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1425	$1,650	$1.16	15d	1	1.28mi
4453 Oakmont Cir Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,300	$1.18	15d	1	1.32mi
319 Idlewild Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0–2.5	1080	$1,340	$1.24	15d	9	1.42mi
319 Idlewild Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0–2.5	1080	$1,350	$1.25	25d	3	1.43mi
2641 McArthur Landing Cir Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	25d	1	1.43mi
2641 McArthur Landing Cir Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,400	$0.97	23d	1	1.43mi
2641 McArthur Landing Cir #102 Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,375	$0.98	25d	1	1.43mi
2500 McArthur Landing Cir Fayetteville, NC	2.0–3.0	2.0	1226	$1,420	$1.16	15d	13	1.49mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $188,000 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $188,000 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $188,000 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $188,000 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $188,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $188,000 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $188,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $190,000 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $190,000 Active 115 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $193,000
18. 2026-04-23
    price $200,000
19. 2026-04-09
    price $209,000
20. 2026-03-26
    price $212,000
21. 2026-03-05
    price $215,000
22. 2026-02-12
    price $218,000
23. 2026-02-04
    listed $225,000 Active
24. 2026-01-23
    soldstatus $215,000
25. 1989-07-31
    soldstatus $57,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,540 · $212/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,540 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,650
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,531
• − Property taxes: −$2,540
• − Insurance: −$940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,412
• − Management: −$1,412
• − Depreciation: −$5,469
• Taxable loss: −$4,653
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,117
• After-tax cash flow: $-250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayetteville, NC
• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 36,629
• Household income: $62,170
• Rent vs Own: 47.5% rent · 52.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1645.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 38% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.88%
• Current HPI: 203.0731
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.82%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+235.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $193,000 TMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $200,000 TMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $209,000 TMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $212,000 TMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $215,000 TMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $218,000 TMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $225,000 TMLS
• 2026-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 1989-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,540 · +24.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.