Is 31006 Brightwell Bnd in Fulshear, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it C with a 6.7% cap rate and $84/mo modeled cash flow at a $250,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 31006 Brightwell Bnd?

The modeled cap rate is 6.7% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,911/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

C Composite 57.01

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +15.1/30.0
ARV discount +14.3/15.0
1% rule +6.6/10.0
Schools +6.0/10.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
DSCR +4.6/10.0
Livability +3.5/5.0
Rent growth +2.1/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$250,000

31006 Brightwell Bnd · Fulshear, TX 77441

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,638 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 2024 Excellent condition 6,011 sqft lot 2-car garage $153/sqft · 15% below area Est $294k · 15% under $104/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Easton plan is a one-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 2 car garage. The long entry leads to the open concept kitchen and breakfast area. The kitchen includes a breakfast bar with beautiful blanco leblon granite counter tops, white cabinets, stainless steel appliances, corner pantry and connects to the family room. The primary suite features a sloped ceiling and attractive primary bath with dual vanities, water closet and walk-in closet. The standard rear covered patio is located off the family room. * Images and 3D tour are for illustration only and options may vary from home as built.

Key facts

Community amenities
Modern kitchen
Single-story home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $84 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
Recommended offer: $235k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.5% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Dean Leaman J H School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #206 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 2,191 students, 32% FRL); Fulshear H S (math 52% / reading 70%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,464 students, 30% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1928 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 37d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.

Recommended offer $235,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 1.16% ✓
Cap rate: 6.69%
Cash-on-cash: 1.43%
DSCR: 1.06
GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $294,388
List price: $250,000
Delta: -15.08%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4230 Berwick Park Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,537 (-6%)	5mo	$275,000	$179	72
4242 Berwick Park Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,467 (-10%)	6mo	$275,000	$187	64
3906 Langridge Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (-4%)	7mo	$309,990	$197	62
3911 Langridge Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,750 (+7%)	9mo	$304,990	$174	61
31138 Winchester Falls Ct	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,692 (+3%)	7mo	$294,990	$174	59
3723 Langridge Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,750 (+7%)	7mo	$318,990	$182	57
31130 Warwick Coast Ct	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,748 (+7%)	8mo	$300,000	$172	56
31135 Royal Acres Ct	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,750 (+7%)	6mo	$309,990	$177	56
31147 Warwick Coast Ct	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,748 (+7%)	8mo	$334,990	$192	55
31106 Brighton Mill Ct	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,750 (+7%)	10mo	$321,990	$184	53
31138 Royal Acres Ct	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,796 (+10%)	8mo	$321,990	$179	51
31138 Brighton Mill Ct	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,748 (+7%)	9mo	$321,990	$184	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -18.2%
Equity multiple: 0.38×
Total profit: $-43,370
Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

IRR: -20.7%
Equity multiple: 0.11×
Total profit: $-62,476
Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 30 active · 42 under contract
Months of supply: 5.6 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $320,490 ($181/sqft)
Median days on market: 66 d
This list price: 3% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -0.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77441

Rents YoY: -1.6%
Active inventory: 1928
Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,911 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
Tax from tax record: −$697 /mo · $8,360/yr
Insurance: −$104
HOA: −$104
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
Net cashflow: $84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,805

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $225	-5% $154	+0% $84	+5% $13	+10% $-58
Rent	-10% $-146	-5% $-31	+0% $84	+5% $199	+10% $314
Rate	-1.0pp $210	-0.5pp $147	base $84	+0.5pp $19	+1.0pp $-47

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $62,500
Closing costs: $7,500
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4318 Kircher Park Ln Fulshear, TX	5.0	3.0	2244	$2,600	$1.16	73d	1	0.65mi
4318 Kircher Park Ln Fulshear, TX	5.0	3.0	2244	$1,980	$0.88	36d	1	0.65mi
3714 Sloane Peak Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1713	$2,456	$1.43	0d	5	0.73mi
30131 Ousel Falls Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.0	1574	$2,150	$1.37	10d	1	0.83mi
29914 Reagans Ranch Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2080	$4,000	$1.92	77d	1	1.03mi
29914 Reagans Ranch Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2080	$5,500	$2.64	130d	1	1.04mi
31707 Melkridge Rd Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,300	$1.10	38d	1	1.21mi
3615 Texas Heritage Pkwy Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$2,526	$2.46	2d	36	1.48mi
29403 Cayman Canyon Way Fulshear, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0	1679	$2,310	$1.38	0d	10	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Seller disclosure available
HOA & community: HOA managed by InframarkAnnual association fee of $1,250

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyFaces southBuilt in 2024Slab foundation
Construction: Brick constructionComposition roof
Exterior features: Fully fenced yardPrivate yardPorchPaved drivewayBack yard fencingCorner lotSide yardLocated in a subdivision

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveInstant hot water
Bedrooms: 4 total rooms
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantrySeparate shower

HOA detail $104/mo · $1,248/yr

Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $250,000 Active 89 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $250,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $250,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $250,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-11-04

pricedays on market $250,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $275,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $275,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $275,000 Active 81 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $275,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $275,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $275,000 Active 78 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $275,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $275,000 Active 76 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $275,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $275,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $275,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $275,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $275,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $275,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $275,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $275,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $275,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $275,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $275,000 Active 65 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $275,000 Active 64 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $275,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $275,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $275,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $275,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $275,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $275,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $275,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $275,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $275,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $275,000 Active 54 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $275,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $275,000 Active 52 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $275,000 Active 51 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $275,000 Active 50 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $275,000 Active 49 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $275,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $275,000 Active 47 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $275,000 Active 46 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $275,000 Active 45 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $275,000 Active 44 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $275,000 Active 43 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $275,000 Active 42 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $275,000 Active 41 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $275,000 Active 40 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $275,000 Active 38 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $8,360 · $697/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $8,360 · $697/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $34,929
− Mortgage interest: −$14,004
− Property taxes: −$8,360
− Insurance: −$1,250
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,794
− Management: −$2,794
− HOA: −$1,248
− Depreciation: −$7,273
Taxable loss: −$2,794

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$671
After-tax cash flow: $1,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It is move-in ready and has a well-maintained exterior and landscaping. Consider landscaping improvements and painting the exterior walls to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
Both Painting exterior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look more appealing and increase its value. ↑
Both Landscaping around the pool — Improves the overall aesthetic and adds value to the property. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huggins El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dean Leaman J H School B TX #206/1,662 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Fulshear H S C+ TX #258/1,632 Nat'l #3,443/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Lamar CISD
NCES district ID: 4826580
Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $75,213
Composite: 46.43/100
National rank: #2452
State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

Score: 69/100
State rank: #430
US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
City population: 41,324
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 41,324
Household income: $184,390
Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
Current HPI: 275.8798
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-19.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

2026-08-11 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
2026-07-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-04-06 Listed $309,000 HARMLS
2024-09-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
2024-07-17 Pending — HARMLS
2024-06-26 Price Changed $320,990 HARMLS
2024-06-25 Price Changed $318,990 HARMLS
2024-06-25 Listed $341,482 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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