102 Geranium Ave W · St. Paul, MN 55117

$285,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,370 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1927 4,878 sqft lot $208/sqft · 24% below area Est $407k · 30% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming home in Saint Paul featuring a functional layout and comfortable living space. Enjoy a spacious yard with rear parking and a convenient location close to parks, shopping, and major roads. A great opportunity you don’t want to miss!

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Close to parks
• Rear parking

Tags

• SPACIOUS YARD
• REAR PARKING
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• CLOSE TO PARKS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO MAJOR ROADS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $224,996 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.31%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $407,241
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -30.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-54,604
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-54,447
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55117

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$318 /mo · $3,816/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,445

Max offer price $257,823

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1443 Saint Albans St N Saint Paul, MN	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,700	$1.80	18d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $285,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $285,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $285,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $285,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $285,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-05-01
   status Active 246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (246 chars)

   Charming home in Saint Paul featuring a functional layout and comfortable living space. Enjoy a spacious yard with rear parking and a convenient location close to parks, shopping, and major roads. A great opportunity you don’t want to miss!

8. 2026-04-27
   historical 246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (246 chars)

   Charming home in Saint Paul featuring a functional layout and comfortable living space. Enjoy a spacious yard with rear parking and a convenient location close to parks, shopping, and major roads. A great opportunity you don’t want to miss!

9. 2026-03-19
   listed $285,000 Active 246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (246 chars)

   Charming home in Saint Paul featuring a functional layout and comfortable living space. Enjoy a spacious yard with rear parking and a convenient location close to parks, shopping, and major roads. A great opportunity you don’t want to miss!

10. 2023-05-23
    soldstatus $250,000
11. 2023-05-18
    soldstatus $250,000 Sold 72-char remark

    Show marketing remark (72 chars)

    Nice move in ready starter home. You don't want to miss out on this one.

12. 2023-04-26
    status Pending 72-char remark

    Show marketing remark (72 chars)

    Nice move in ready starter home. You don't want to miss out on this one.

13. 2023-04-24
    historical Contingent - Inspection 72-char remark

    Show marketing remark (72 chars)

    Nice move in ready starter home. You don't want to miss out on this one.

14. 2023-04-18
    listed $249,900 Active 72-char remark

    Show marketing remark (72 chars)

    Nice move in ready starter home. You don't want to miss out on this one.

15. 2022-11-17
    historical
16. 2022-10-07
    price $249,900
17. 2022-09-15
    listed $259,000 Active
18. 2009-07-07
    soldstatus $60,000
19. 2009-06-25
    historical
20. 2009-06-12
    listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,816 · $318/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,816 · $318/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$3,816
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$6,817
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,636
• After-tax cash flow: $-210/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 44,697
• Household income: $70,771
• Rent vs Own: 38.7% rent · 61.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1588.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Asian 24% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Philippines, India
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 15% Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -308.56%
• Current HPI: 267.4216
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.60%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+375.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Listed $285,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-18 Sold (MLS) $250,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-26 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-24 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-18 Listed $249,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-17 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-07 Price Changed $249,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-15 Listed $259,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-07 Sold (MLS) $60,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-25 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-12 Listed $59,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,816 · +57.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.