Denison Plan · Castroville, TX 78009

$394,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,358 sqft · SingleFamily · 115 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.8/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

None

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 114 days

🏗️ New construction. The $394,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $492,366.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $395k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-25k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (51.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (57.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (57.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.2% vs local median 2.5% in Castroville — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 525 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,479 (57.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.34% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.03%
• DSCR: 0.20
• GRM: 24.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $492,366
• List price: $394,990
• Delta: -19.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
139 Annette Dr	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,334 (-1%)	2mo	$474,990	$204	94
313 Ainslie St W	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,358 (0%)	2mo	$429,990	$182	87
133 Heidi Hl	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,369 (+0%)	1mo	$399,990	$169	86
119 Mallorys Way	0.24mi	4/3.5	2,303 (-2%)	4mo	$349,990	$152	80
169 Mallorys Way	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,536 (+8%)	2mo	$434,990	$172	77
171 Heidi Hl	0.23mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,492 (+6%)	0mo	$369,990	$148	74
283 W Ainslie St	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,119 (-10%)	0mo	$349,990	$165	70
151 Annette Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,653 (+12%)	0mo	$497,990	$188	69
166 Mallorys Way	0.20mi	4/3.5	2,614 (+11%)	2mo	$425,990	$163	69
105 Heidi Hl	0.29mi	4/3.5	2,614 (+11%)	2mo	$399,990	$153	65
148 Heidi Hl	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,041 (-13%)	4mo	$389,990	$191	54
272 Christian	0.57mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,660 (+13%)	4mo	$598,089	$225	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -52.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-211,703
• Equity at exit: $73,413

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.57×
• Total profit: $-354,143
• Equity at exit: $42,571

Cash invested: $137,862 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 41 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.7 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $475,000 ($179/sqft)
• Median days on market: 124 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78009

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 525
• Price-to-rent: 19.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,685 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,582
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$615 /mo · $7,385/yr
• Insurance: −$205
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-2,072

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,307

Max offer price $192,595

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,731	-5% $-1,902	+0% $-2,072	+5% $-2,242	+10% $-2,412
Rent	-10% $-2,205	-5% $-2,138	+0% $-2,072	+5% $-2,005	+10% $-1,939
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,824	-0.5pp $-1,946	base $-2,072	+0.5pp $-2,199	+1.0pp $-2,329

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,091
• Closing costs: $14,771
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $394,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family planAddress: Denison Plan, Castroville TX 78009
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2358

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: DenisonNew construction

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $394,990 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $394,990 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $394,990 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $394,990 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $394,990 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $394,990 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $394,990 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $394,990 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $394,990 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $394,990 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $394,990 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $394,990 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $394,990 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $394,990 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $394,990 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $394,990 Active 93 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $394,990 Active 92 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $394,990 Active 91 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $394,990 Active 90 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $394,990 Active 89 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $394,990 Active 88 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $394,990 Active 87 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $394,990 Active 86 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $394,990 Active 85 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $394,990 Active 83 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $394,990 Active 82 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $394,990 Active 81 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $394,990 Active 79 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $394,990 Active 78 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $394,990 Active 77 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $394,990 Active 76 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $394,990 Active 75 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $394,990 Active 74 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $394,990 Active 73 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $394,990 Active 72 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $394,990 Active 70 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $394,990 Active 68 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $394,990 Active 67 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $394,990 Active 64 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $394,990 Active 63 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $394,990 Active 62 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $394,990 Active 61 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $394,990 Active 59 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $394,990 Active 55 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $394,990 Active 54 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $394,990 Active 53 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $394,990 Active 50 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $394,990 Active 49 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $394,990 Active 48 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $394,990 Active 47 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,580
• − Property taxes: −$7,385
• − Insurance: −$2,462
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,617
• − Management: −$1,617
• − Depreciation: −$14,323
• Taxable loss: −$34,768
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,344
• After-tax cash flow: $-16,515/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern exterior and well-maintained landscaping. It has the potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior, making it a strong candidate for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the curb appeal and make the home look more inviting. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Resale Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Fresh paint and minor repairs inside can make the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental HVAC and mechanical system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract more renters and reduce maintenance costs. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Potranco El D+ TX #833/4,322 Nat'l #12,398/41,679 Middle Medina Valley Middle C- TX #400/1,662 Nat'l #3,953/14,009 High Medina Valley H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Medina · 54,332 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,494
• Household income: $102,724
• Rent vs Own: 15.0% rent · 85.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 37% Two or more races 29% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Albanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.81%
• Current HPI: 212.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $394,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family planAddress: Denison Plan, Castroville TX 78009
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2358

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: DenisonNew construction