7016 San Carlos St · Carlsbad, CA 92011

$299,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 105 Days on market

Built 1973 Good condition 0.38 ac lot $208/sqft · 77% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you are seeking a very safe, happy community close to many beautiful beaches, great medical services, and shopping districts. .. and you only want to bring your toothbrush. .. LOOK NO FURTHER! I am selling my "Double Wide" manufactured home, 1,440 sq. ft. -- fully furnished including all housewares, which is located in a very desirable 55+ Community - Lakeshore Gardens - just 1,000 feet as the crow flies from the South Carlsbad State Beach. The community is comprised of 383 manufactured homes surrounding a integral "lakes system" and a beautiful Clubhouse/Community Center at its focal point. This manufactured home rests on a "leased lot" for which you will need to pay The Association $2,675/month in rental fees. .. commencing upon purchase. Carlsbad California is a very elegant North San Diego County "Beach Community" with low crime, beautiful beaches and parks, great shopping, and is in close proximity to an extraordinary compliment of the best general and highly specialized medical services and hospital systems that money can buy. The home is being sold in "As Is" condition, and includes all existing furnishings, artwork, floor runners/rugs, glassware, dishware, cookware, bedding, bath & beach towels, and all existing technology {TVs, audio, computer, etc. }! JUST BRING YOUR TOOTHBRUSH!!! The transfer of ownership of a manufactured home in California is accomplished via processing the appropriate "transfer documentation" through the California Department of Housing & Community Development {HCD}. It is personal property and is very much like buying/selling an automobile. .. with very low fees associated with the transfer. NO PROPERTY TAXES ARE EVER DUE! Lakeshore Gardens is highly desirable as it is considered a "beach community" resting just one long block from the beach, with a very nicely presented Ralphs-anchored shopping center directly across the street known as "Poinsettia Village. " In this shopping center are countless quick-serve restaurants, Starbucks, cleaners, banks, personal grooming, fitness, and many other services. Lakeshore Gardens has a very nice Clubhouse/Community Center complete with an outdoor pool, and indoor billiards, meeting rooms, and a large fitness center. .. all of which act as the central hub to many of the residents' activities. No additional charges are incurred for use of the common facilities. Purchase of the home will require approval by the community management company for which there is an application process, and, at least one of the Buyers will need to be of the age of 55+. No children are allowed to live in the community. .. but they visit often! Renting homes to short-term or long-term renters is prohibited at Lakeshore Gardens. However, many of the home owners are from other areas/states and use this spot as their 2nd Home "Get-Away" or Vacation Property. Most residents live here permanently. The home provides lots of space for one or two permanent residents and offers a cozy secondary bedroom & bath for occasional visitors. While in very good, clean, and fully operable condition, it certainly will welcome your personal touch if you are inclined to make upgrades. The homes currently for sale in this community with upgraded interiors are priced much, much higher. I am very serious about this sale and can move quickly or slowly. I have no personal time-table established and have the luxury of great flexibility. I welcome your inquiries. Thanks so much and. .. Best of Luck With Your House Hunting!

Key facts

• Outdoor pool
• Indoor billiards
• Leased lot

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• LEASED LOT
• INTEGRAL LAKES SYSTEM
• CLUBHOUSE COMMUNITY CENTER
• OUTDOOR POOL
• INDOOR BILLIARDS

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $299,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$1,320,097) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $272k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 2.1% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($159k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $299k implies a 498% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.00%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,320,097
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -77.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7018 San Carlos St #60	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$392,000	$272	94
7140 Santa Rosa St	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$191,000	$133	88
7106 Santa Cruz #56	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+2%)	9mo	$390,000	$266	84
7217 San Luis St #173	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$280,000	$194	82
7024 San Bartolo Unit 19 A	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (+7%)	2mo	$425,000	$275	76
7203 San Luis St #166	0.16mi	2/2.5	1,536 (+7%)	9mo	$375,000	$244	72
7318 San Luis St	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$285,000	$198	71
7304 Santa Barbara St #325	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	9mo	$481,000	$318	69
7311 San Luis St #237	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,359 (-6%)	1mo	$236,550	$174	65
7224 San Benito St	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,600 (+11%)	9mo	$400,000	$250	64
7243 San Luis St #257	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	2mo	$120,000	$96	60
7313 San Luis St #236	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,548 (+8%)	5mo	$450,000	$291	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $117,011
• Equity at exit: $113,889

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.69×
• Total profit: $308,637
• Equity at exit: $160,950

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92011

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,558 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$957
• Net cashflow: $1,535

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,616

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6923 Whitecap Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1246	$5,250	$4.21	44d	1	0.36mi
820 Windcrest Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1404	$5,581	$3.98	18d	1	0.51mi
6938 Seascape Dr Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$3,775	$4.66	3d	9	0.58mi
6790 Embarcadero Ln Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	2.0–2.5	2104	$5,750	$2.73	5d	1	0.59mi
6910 Peachtree Rd Unit 1546353P Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1399	$6,129	$4.38	17d	1	0.69mi
6811 Alderwood Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1292	$3,850	$2.98	44d	1	0.75mi
916 Caminito Estrada Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1188	$3,650	$3.07	44d	1	0.85mi
902 Caminito Madrigal Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.0	897	$3,200	$3.57	11d	1	0.88mi
6675 Paseo del Norte Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$4,300	$4.48	44d	1	0.89mi
6675 Paseo del Norte Unit A Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$3,850	$4.01	5d	1	0.89mi
6677 Paseo Del Norte Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$4,500	$4.69	44d	1	0.89mi
6677 Paseo del Norte Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.0	959	$3,950	$4.12	44d	1	0.89mi
908 Caminito Madrigal Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	897	$4,500	$5.02	44d	1	0.93mi
908 Caminito Madrigal Unit D Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.5	897	$4,500	$5.02	44d	1	0.95mi
925 Wind Drift Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.5	1110	$3,895	$3.51	44d	1	1.01mi
6555 Sea Gate Rd Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1114	$4,095	$3.67	2d	3	1.04mi
1967 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	929	$5,359	$5.77	2d	7	1.40mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $299,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $335,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $335,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $335,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $335,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $335,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $335,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $335,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $335,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $335,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $335,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $335,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-03-05
    listed $335,000 Active 3619-char remark

    Show marketing remark (3619 chars)

    If you are seeking a very safe, happy community close to many beautiful beaches, great medical services, and shopping districts. .. and you only want to bring your toothbrush. .. LOOK NO FURTHER! I am selling my "Double Wide" manufactured home, 1,440 sq. ft. -- fully furnished including all housewares, which is located in a very desirable 55+ Community - Lakeshore Gardens - just 1,000 feet as the crow flies from the South Carlsbad State Beach. The community is comprised of 383 manufactured homes surrounding a integral "lakes system" and a beautiful Clubhouse/Community Center at its focal point. This manufactured home rests on a "leased lot" for which you will need to pay The Association $2,675/month in rental fees. .. commencing upon purchase. Carlsbad California is a very elegant North San Diego County "Beach Community" with low crime, beautiful beaches and parks, great shopping, and is in close proximity to an extraordinary compliment of the best general and highly specialized medical services and hospital systems that money can buy. The home is being sold in "As Is" condition, and includes all existing furnishings, artwork, floor runners/rugs, glassware, dishware, cookware, bedding, bath & beach towels, and all existing technology {TVs, audio, computer, etc. }! JUST BRING YOUR TOOTHBRUSH!!! The transfer of ownership of a manufactured home in California is accomplished via processing the appropriate "transfer documentation" through the California Department of Housing & Community Development {HCD}. It is personal property and is very much like buying/selling an automobile. .. with very low fees associated with the transfer. NO PROPERTY TAXES ARE EVER DUE! Lakeshore Gardens is highly desirable as it is considered a "beach community" resting just one long block from the beach, with a very nicely presented Ralphs-anchored shopping center directly across the street known as "Poinsettia Village. " In this shopping center are countless quick-serve restaurants, Starbucks, cleaners, banks, personal grooming, fitness, and many other services. Lakeshore Gardens has a very nice Clubhouse/Community Center complete with an outdoor pool, and indoor billiards, meeting rooms, and a large fitness center. .. all of which act as the central hub to many of the residents' activities. No additional charges are incurred for use of the common facilities. Purchase of the home will require approval by the community management company for which there is an application process, and, at least one of the Buyers will need to be of the age of 55+. No children are allowed to live in the community. .. but they visit often! Renting homes to short-term or long-term renters is prohibited at Lakeshore Gardens. However, many of the home owners are from other areas/states and use this spot as their 2nd Home "Get-Away" or Vacation Property. Most residents live here permanently. The home provides lots of space for one or two permanent residents and offers a cozy secondary bedroom & bath for occasional visitors. While in very good, clean, and fully operable condition, it certainly will welcome your personal touch if you are inclined to make upgrades. The homes currently for sale in this community with upgraded interiors are priced much, much higher. I am very serious about this sale and can move quickly or slowly. I have no personal time-table established and have the luxury of great flexibility. I welcome your inquiries. Thanks so much and. .. Best of Luck With Your House Hunting!

17. 1998-08-10
    soldstatus $50,000 180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (180 chars)

    LOWEST SPACE RENT---PETS ALLOWED---NEAR GATE EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING AND WALK TO BEACH---NEW PORCH--APPLIANCES INCLUDED OCEAN BREEZES ALL DAY---STORAGE BUILDING--PORTABLE FIREPLACE

18. 1998-05-23
    listed $69,500 180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (180 chars)

    LOWEST SPACE RENT---PETS ALLOWED---NEAR GATE EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING AND WALK TO BEACH---NEW PORCH--APPLIANCES INCLUDED OCEAN BREEZES ALL DAY---STORAGE BUILDING--PORTABLE FIREPLACE

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,376
• − Management: −$4,376
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $14,522
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,485
• After-tax cash flow: $14,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed for a fresh look and increased value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlsbad Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,200
• Composite: 65.11/100
• National rank: #1068
• State rank: #87 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,190
• Household income: $159,235
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 714.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 399.8502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+382.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $335,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 1998-08-10 Sold (MLS) $50,000 CRMLS
• 1998-05-23 Listed $69,500 CRMLS