4824 Red Oak Trl · Western Lake, TX 76087

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Land · 119 Days on market

Built 2021 0.31 ac lot $134/sqft · 98% above area ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-wide mobile home is a great opportunity to own a comfortable, easy-to-maintain home on a spacious third acre lot. The home sits on a generous parcel that offers plenty of room for outdoor living, gardening, or future improvements.

Key facts

• Generous parcel
• Outdoor living
• 0.31 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS THIRD ACRE LOT
• GENEROUS PARCEL
• OUTDOOR LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $545 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 1.9% in Western Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,506 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, crime F.
• Weatherford ISD (town): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #321 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 649 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.16%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $83,142
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: 98.45%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,479
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $30,043
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76087

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 649
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,008 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,284/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $545

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,318

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $165,000 Pending 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active Option Contract 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active Option Contract 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active Option Contract 117 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active Option Contract 116 DOM
6. 2026-05-07
   price $165,000 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   This single-wide mobile home is a great opportunity to own a comfortable, easy-to-maintain home on a spacious third acre lot. The home sits on a generous parcel that offers plenty of room for outdoor living, gardening, or future improvements.

7. 2026-03-19
   price $177,000 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   This single-wide mobile home is a great opportunity to own a comfortable, easy-to-maintain home on a spacious third acre lot. The home sits on a generous parcel that offers plenty of room for outdoor living, gardening, or future improvements.

8. 2026-02-04
   listed $185,000 Active 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   This single-wide mobile home is a great opportunity to own a comfortable, easy-to-maintain home on a spacious third acre lot. The home sits on a generous parcel that offers plenty of room for outdoor living, gardening, or future improvements.

9. 2014-08-19
   soldstatus
10. 2006-12-20
    soldstatus
11. 2004-09-20
    soldstatus
12. 1999-09-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,284 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,735/yr (+$145/mo · 135.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,284
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,928
• − Management: −$1,928
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $4,090
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$981
• After-tax cash flow: $5,562/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weatherford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844800
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,087
• Composite: 36.4/100
• National rank: #4679
• State rank: #321 of 826 in TX

Livability — Western Lake

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1506
• US rank: #25775

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing F Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Western Lake, TX
• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,822
• Household income: $114,306
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 497.0

Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.16%
• Current HPI: 214.6694
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $177,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2014-08-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-09-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-09-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,284 · +32.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.