380 Governors Hogg Dr · Point Blank, TX 77364

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,075 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1978 0.43 ac lot $112/sqft · 50% below area Est $240k · 50% under · waterfront $25/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits with this 2-bedroom home situated on 2 lots and located in a charming waterfront community! With a little vision and some TLC, this property could truly shine. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, an investment property, or the perfect weekend getaway, this home offers plenty of potential to make it your own. The community features wonderful amenities including a pool, playground, boat ramp and fishing pier, making it a great place to relax and enjoy the waterfront lifestyle. Bring your ideas and creativity to transform this house into your dream home.

Key facts

• Fishing pier
• Waterfront community
• Pool

Tags

• WATERFRONT COMMUNITY
• POOL
• PLAYGROUND
• BOAT RAMP
• FISHING PIER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $97k (18.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.4% in Point Blank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,477 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Street El (449 students, 70% FRL); Lincoln J H (math 14% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 347 students, 58% FRL); Coldspring-Oakhurst H S (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 496 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 197 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $463 of equity ($830 loan paydown + $-367 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,262 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
12. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
13. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
14. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
15. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.22%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,782
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -49.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
277 Edgewater Way	1.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	978 (-9%)	8mo	$193,700	$198	38
240 Boat Launch Rd	1.08mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,216 (+13%)	1mo	$85,000	$70	36
118 High Dr	1.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,136 (+6%)	24mo	$279,900	$246	31
100 Oak Tree Dr	0.87mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+12%)	23mo	$139,800	$117	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-13,366
• Equity at exit: $33,019

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-8,129
• Equity at exit: $38,261

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77364

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $975 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,542/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $-129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,138

Max offer price $97,262

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-61	-5% $-95	+0% $-129	+5% $-163	+10% $-197
Rent	-10% $-206	-5% $-167	+0% $-129	+5% $-90	+10% $-52
Rate	-1.0pp $-68	-0.5pp $-98	base $-129	+0.5pp $-160	+1.0pp $-191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $120,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 84 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 83 DOM
18. 2026-04-16
    price $120,000 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    Opportunity awaits with this 2-bedroom home situated on 2 lots and located in a charming waterfront community! With a little vision and some TLC, this property could truly shine. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, an investment property, or the perfect weekend getaway, this home offers plenty of potential to make it your own. The community features wonderful amenities including a pool, playground, boat ramp and fishing pier, making it a great place to relax and enjoy the waterfront lifestyle. Bring your ideas and creativity to transform this house into your dream home.

19. 2026-03-08
    listed $140,000 Active 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    Opportunity awaits with this 2-bedroom home situated on 2 lots and located in a charming waterfront community! With a little vision and some TLC, this property could truly shine. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, an investment property, or the perfect weekend getaway, this home offers plenty of potential to make it your own. The community features wonderful amenities including a pool, playground, boat ramp and fishing pier, making it a great place to relax and enjoy the waterfront lifestyle. Bring your ideas and creativity to transform this house into your dream home.

20. 2024-03-08
    historical
21. 2024-02-12
    price $160,000
22. 2024-02-02
    listed $180,000 Active
23. 2023-05-12
    soldstatus Sold
24. 2023-04-10
    status Pending
25. 2023-03-30
    status Option Pending
26. 2023-01-08
    listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,542 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$654/yr (+$55/mo · 42.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,542
• − Insurance: −$1,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$936
• − Management: −$936
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$3,621
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$869
• After-tax cash flow: $-676/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814520
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,916
• Composite: 20.07/100
• National rank: #8653
• State rank: #732 of 826 in TX

Livability — Point Blank

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1477
• US rank: #25299

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,835

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Current HPI: 193.4748
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-08 Listed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-12 Price Changed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-02 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-04-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-03-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-01-08 Listed $145,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,542 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.