1630 S Chisholm Trl · Canyon Creek, TX 76048

$245,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,265 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 220 Days on market

Built 1980 0.26 ac lot $194/sqft · 14% below area Est $283k · 14% under $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your new lake house or investment property! This 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath A-frame sits on just over a quarter-acre, surrounded by mature trees, making it feel like your own private world. Downstairs, you'll find a cozy living room, half bath, and remodeled eat-in kitchen. Upstairs are 2 bedrooms with large closets and a full bath. Has a newer metal roof and AC unit. The backyard is the heart of this property, offering views of Lake Granbury, a fire pit, and plenty of space to entertain. There's a private outdoor shower for post-lake activities or washing pets. The utility room offers extra storage. Currently used as an STR, the home rents for an average of $200 per night and has a 5 star rating as a super host. All furniture and decor is negotiable but will leave the fridge, washer and dryer. The seller offers up to $5,000 in concessions for rate buy-down or closing costs with an acceptable offer. Note: Indian Harbor is a gated community, requiring a licensed agent for entry. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed, buyer and buyers agent to verify.

Key facts

• A-frame
• Fire pit
• Newer metal roof

Tags

• A-FRAME
• REMODELED EAT-IN KITCHEN
• NEWER METAL ROOF
• AC UNIT
• VIEWS OF LAKE GRANBURY
• FIRE PIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-978/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Canyon Creek — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,102 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mambrino School (math 53% / reading 48%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 886 students, 53% FRL); Granbury Middle (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 846 students, 68% FRL); Granbury H S (math 38% / reading 51%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,202 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 930 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,451 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,434
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -13.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1508 Pecos Trail Ct	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,292 (+2%)	12mo	$175,000	$135	60
1308 Laredo Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,256 (-1%)	2mo	$240,000	$191	59
4110 Apache Trail Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,375 (+9%)	3mo	$375,000	$273	57
2206 Forest Hill Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,351 (+7%)	14mo	$262,500	$194	45
5015 Elizabeth St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,342 (+6%)	10mo	$269,999	$201	44
2400 Duro Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,340 (+6%)	8mo	$259,000	$193	43
4310 Lucero Dr	0.59mi	2/1.0	1,080 (-15%)	5mo	$169,900	$157	42
1303 W Seneca Ct	0.68mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,380 (+9%)	3mo	$195,000	$141	42
4109 Seminole Trl	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,362 (+8%)	6mo	$234,999	$173	42
1305 Laredo Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (+8%)	11mo	$265,000	$194	39
4820 Elizabeth St	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,446 (+14%)	11mo	$250,000	$173	36
1414 Cheyenne Trl	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,416 (+12%)	10mo	$259,000	$183	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-48,585
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-63,579
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 930
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,965 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,515/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,068

Max offer price $230,601

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $57	-5% $-12	+0% $-82	+5% $-151	+10% $-220
Rent	-10% $-237	-5% $-159	+0% $-82	+5% $-4	+10% $74
Rate	-1.0pp $42	-0.5pp $-19	base $-82	+0.5pp $-145	+1.0pp $-210

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2700 Steepleridge Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,895	$1.32	9d	1	0.31mi
2414 Forest Hill Ln Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,150	$1.44	5d	1	0.37mi
4710 Llano St Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,775	$1.22	45d	1	0.44mi
1418 Cheyenne Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1826	$2,400	$1.31	45d	1	0.69mi
2524 Creek Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,150	$1.33	4d	1	1.02mi
2524 Creek Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,150	$1.33	0d	1	1.02mi
5522 Firewood Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$2,400	$1.67	45d	1	1.23mi
5619 Cold Water Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.5	1801	$2,090	$1.16	45d	1	1.28mi
5621 San Jacinto Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1477	$2,100	$1.42	9d	1	1.41mi
5718 Barkridge Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,070	$1.43	0d	1	1.43mi
3607 Sioux Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.5	1860	$2,100	$1.13	9d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 220 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 217 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 216 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 215 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 214 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 212 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 208 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 207 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 206 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $245,000 Active 203 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 202 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 201 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 200 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 199 DOM
15. 2026-01-11
    price $245,000 1084-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1084 chars)

    Welcome to your new lake house or investment property! This 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath A-frame sits on just over a quarter-acre, surrounded by mature trees, making it feel like your own private world. Downstairs, you'll find a cozy living room, half bath, and remodeled eat-in kitchen. Upstairs are 2 bedrooms with large closets and a full bath. Has a newer metal roof and AC unit. The backyard is the heart of this property, offering views of Lake Granbury, a fire pit, and plenty of space to entertain. There's a private outdoor shower for post-lake activities or washing pets. The utility room offers extra storage. Currently used as an STR, the home rents for an average of $200 per night and has a 5 star rating as a super host. All furniture and decor is negotiable but will leave the fridge, washer and dryer. The seller offers up to $5,000 in concessions for rate buy-down or closing costs with an acceptable offer. Note: Indian Harbor is a gated community, requiring a licensed agent for entry. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed, buyer and buyers agent to verify.

16. 2025-11-13
    listed $255,000 Active 1084-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1084 chars)

    Welcome to your new lake house or investment property! This 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath A-frame sits on just over a quarter-acre, surrounded by mature trees, making it feel like your own private world. Downstairs, you'll find a cozy living room, half bath, and remodeled eat-in kitchen. Upstairs are 2 bedrooms with large closets and a full bath. Has a newer metal roof and AC unit. The backyard is the heart of this property, offering views of Lake Granbury, a fire pit, and plenty of space to entertain. There's a private outdoor shower for post-lake activities or washing pets. The utility room offers extra storage. Currently used as an STR, the home rents for an average of $200 per night and has a 5 star rating as a super host. All furniture and decor is negotiable but will leave the fridge, washer and dryer. The seller offers up to $5,000 in concessions for rate buy-down or closing costs with an acceptable offer. Note: Indian Harbor is a gated community, requiring a licensed agent for entry. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed, buyer and buyers agent to verify.

17. 2024-05-09
    soldstatus Closed 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    Feel the Lake Vibe in this funky fun vacation spot or full time home with a lake view! Totally remodeled and freshly painted. New appliances , the fridge will stay as well, newer metal roof and new AC unit. The back yard is secluded and private and is a great spot to hang around the fire pit on chilly nights. There is an outdoor shower to rinse off after a day at the lake. This A-frame home has been very well maintained...come take a peek before its gone! This would make a great short term rental as well.

18. 2024-05-06
    soldstatus
19. 2024-04-22
    status Pending 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    Feel the Lake Vibe in this funky fun vacation spot or full time home with a lake view! Totally remodeled and freshly painted. New appliances , the fridge will stay as well, newer metal roof and new AC unit. The back yard is secluded and private and is a great spot to hang around the fire pit on chilly nights. There is an outdoor shower to rinse off after a day at the lake. This A-frame home has been very well maintained...come take a peek before its gone! This would make a great short term rental as well.

20. 2024-04-04
    historical Active Option Contract 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    Feel the Lake Vibe in this funky fun vacation spot or full time home with a lake view! Totally remodeled and freshly painted. New appliances , the fridge will stay as well, newer metal roof and new AC unit. The back yard is secluded and private and is a great spot to hang around the fire pit on chilly nights. There is an outdoor shower to rinse off after a day at the lake. This A-frame home has been very well maintained...come take a peek before its gone! This would make a great short term rental as well.

21. 2024-03-12
    listed $239,000 Active 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    Feel the Lake Vibe in this funky fun vacation spot or full time home with a lake view! Totally remodeled and freshly painted. New appliances , the fridge will stay as well, newer metal roof and new AC unit. The back yard is secluded and private and is a great spot to hang around the fire pit on chilly nights. There is an outdoor shower to rinse off after a day at the lake. This A-frame home has been very well maintained...come take a peek before its gone! This would make a great short term rental as well.

22. 2022-09-13
    soldstatus
23. 2022-09-12
    soldstatus Closed
24. 2022-07-19
    historical Active Option Contract
25. 2022-07-11
    status Active
26. 2022-05-16
    status Active
27. 2022-05-13
    historical Active Option Contract
28. 2022-05-09
    listed $199,000 Active
29. 2021-05-10
    soldstatus Sold
30. 2021-04-17
    status Pending
31. 2021-04-11
    historical Active Option Contract
32. 2020-09-21
    listed $171,300 Active
33. 2019-07-24
    historical
34. 2019-03-28
    listed $171,300 Active
35. 2019-03-27
    price $171,300
36. 2019-03-26
    status Active
37. 2018-11-21
    historical
38. 2018-11-21
    historical
39. 2018-10-02
    price $168,500
40. 2018-07-23
    listed $179,900 Active
41. 2012-07-23
    soldstatus
42. 2012-07-23
    soldstatus
43. 2012-07-20
    soldstatus Closed
44. 2012-06-28
    status Pending
45. 2012-06-20
    historical Active Option Contract
46. 2012-05-21
    price $64,000
47. 2012-03-03
    price $65,000
48. 2011-12-08
    price $69,500
49. 2011-09-14
    status Active
50. 2011-09-14
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,515 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,484 · $374/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,969/yr (+$164/mo · 78.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,574
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$2,515
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,886
• − Management: −$1,886
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$5,233
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,256
• After-tax cash flow: $278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Creek

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1102
• US rank: #19485

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+188.2% since first listed

43 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $245,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $255,000 NTREIS
• 2024-05-09 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-05-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-04-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-04-04 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-03-12 Listed $239,000 NTREIS
• 2022-09-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-09-12 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-07-19 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-07-11 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2022-05-16 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2022-05-13 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-05-09 Listed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2021-05-10 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-04-17 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-04-11 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2020-09-21 Listed $171,300 NTREIS
• 2019-07-24 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2019-03-28 Listed $171,300 NTREIS
• 2019-03-27 Price Changed $171,300 NTREIS
• 2019-03-26 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2018-11-21 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2018-11-21 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2018-10-02 Price Changed $168,500 NTREIS
• 2018-07-23 Listed $179,900 NTREIS
• 2012-07-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-07-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-07-20 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2012-06-28 Pending — NTREIS
• 2012-06-20 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2012-05-21 Price Changed $64,000 NTREIS
• 2012-03-03 Price Changed $65,000 NTREIS
• 2011-12-08 Price Changed $69,500 NTREIS
• 2011-09-14 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2011-09-14 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2011-06-25 Price Changed $69,900 NTREIS
• 2011-03-11 Listed $78,000 NTREIS
• 2010-09-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2010-02-17 Listed $85,000 NTREIS
• 2002-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-06-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1978-07-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,515 · +17.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.