429 Fry St · St. Paul, MN 55104

$699,900

12 bd · 6.0 ba · 5,300 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 207 Days on market

Built 1915 4,791 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 6 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

423 & 429 Fry sold together ONLY ($649,800 for both). Newer boiler, hardwood floors, ample parking, 8 recent turnovers, many updates, good tenants, close to LRT! See supplements for financials.

Key facts

• 6 unit complex
• Stainless appliances
• Near allianz field

Tags

• 6 UNIT COMPLEX
• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• NEAR ALLIANZ FIELD
• SNELLING MIDWAY NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $700k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($60k/yr) — positive. Per door: $830/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $700k).
• Recommended offer: $616k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $13,485/mo this rent would consume 214% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 2116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $196k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 207 days — a 12% lower offer ($616k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $615,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 207 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.50%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $197,806
• Equity at exit: $104,357

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $556,249
• Equity at exit: $60,515

Cash invested: $195,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55104

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 26.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $13,485 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,670
• Tax from tax record: −$1,710 /mo · $20,520/yr
• Insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,832
• Net cashflow: $4,981

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,180

Max offer price $699,900

Occupancy floor 58%

6-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 6× units	2	1	$13,482
Total (6 units)			$13,485

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $174,975
• Closing costs: $20,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2025-11-21
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-16
   price $699,900
3. 2025-08-21
   price $729,900
4. 2025-05-30
   price $750,000
5. 2025-04-28
   listed $770,000 Active
6. 2024-01-21
   historical $2,100
7. 2023-09-21
   listed $2,100
8. 2022-08-15
   price $2,000
9. 2017-02-17
   soldstatus $900,000
10. 2013-09-30
    soldstatus $595,000
11. 2013-09-19
    soldstatus $297,500 Sold 197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (197 chars)

    423 & 429 Fry sold together ONLY ($649,800 for both). Newer boiler, hardwood floors, ample parking, 8 recent turnovers, many updates, good tenants, close to LRT! See supplements for financials.

12. 2013-09-08
    listed $324,900 Active 197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (197 chars)

    423 & 429 Fry sold together ONLY ($649,800 for both). Newer boiler, hardwood floors, ample parking, 8 recent turnovers, many updates, good tenants, close to LRT! See supplements for financials.

13. 2011-02-04
    historical
14. 2010-08-24
    listed $275,000
15. 2008-12-11
    historical
16. 2008-03-12
    listed $325,000
17. 2005-08-02
    soldstatus $575,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $20,520 · $1,710/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $20,520 · $1,710/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $161,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,205
• − Property taxes: −$20,520
• − Insurance: −$3,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,946
• − Management: −$12,946
• − Depreciation: −$20,361
• Taxable income: $52,343
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$12,562
• After-tax cash flow: $47,212/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,762
• Household income: $75,712
• Rent vs Own: 46.9% rent · 53.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2116.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -532.26%
• Current HPI: 245.6146
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+21.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-21 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $699,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $729,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $750,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-28 Listed $770,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-21 Rental Removed $2,100 APPFOLIO
• 2023-09-21 Listed for Rent $2,100 APPFOLIO
• 2022-08-15 Price Changed $2,000 APPFOLIO
• 2017-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $900,000 Public Records
• 2013-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $595,000 Public Records
• 2013-09-19 Sold (MLS) $297,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-08 Listed $324,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-04 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-08-24 Listed $275,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-12-11 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-12 Listed $325,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $575,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $20,520 · +33.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.