24619 N Barn Cir · Florence, AZ 85132

$269,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,305 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 2021 6,303 sqft lot $206/sqft · 16% below area Est $319k · 16% under $75/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Look NO further! Take pride in owning this charming 3-bedroom home situated on a quiet cul-de-sac! Check out the inviting open floor plan, graced with bountiful natural light, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Tile flooring, neutral palette, and window blinds are worth mentioning. Host dinner parties in the formal dining room, or cook with ease in the well-appointed kitchen fully equipped with recessed lighting, plenty of cabinets with crown moulding, a pantry, granite counters, stainless steel appliances, and a prep island with a breakfast bar for casual dining or conversation. Retreat to the main bedroom, where you will find plush carpet, a private bathroom, and a walk-in closet. Large backyard provides a covered patio, perfect for unwinding. Don't let this amazing deal slip by!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Crown moulding
• Formal dining room

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• PLENTY OF CABINETS
• CROWN MOULDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.1% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 736 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 13% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,159 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.50%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $318,614
• List price: $269,000
• Delta: -13.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24708 N Barley Cir	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,363 (+4%)	1mo	$270,000	$198	87
9817 E Hay Loft Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+2%)	17mo	$289,800	$218	79
9537 E Silo Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,246 (-4%)	4mo	$240,000	$193	76
9600 E Harvest Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,362 (+4%)	16mo	$300,000	$220	71
9442 E Silo Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,246 (-4%)	11mo	$280,000	$225	70
9675 E Harvest Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+13%)	22mo	$317,500	$215	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-56,999
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-76,093
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85132

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 736
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,972 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,397/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,170

Max offer price $241,328

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4	-5% $-81	+0% $-157	+5% $-233	+10% $-309
Rent	-10% $-312	-5% $-235	+0% $-157	+5% $-79	+10% $-1
Rate	-1.0pp $-21	-0.5pp $-88	base $-157	+0.5pp $-226	+1.0pp $-297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9816 E Hay Loft Dr Florence, AZ	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,975	$1.16	45d	1	0.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $269,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    price $275,000 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Look NO further! Take pride in owning this charming 3-bedroom home situated on a quiet cul-de-sac! Check out the inviting open floor plan, graced with bountiful natural light, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Tile flooring, neutral palette, and window blinds are worth mentioning. Host dinner parties in the formal dining room, or cook with ease in the well-appointed kitchen fully equipped with recessed lighting, plenty of cabinets with crown moulding, a pantry, granite counters, stainless steel appliances, and a prep island with a breakfast bar for casual dining or conversation. Retreat to the main bedroom, where you will find plush carpet, a private bathroom, and a walk-in closet. Large backyard provides a covered patio, perfect for unwinding. Don't let this amazing deal slip by!

17. 2026-03-28
    status Active 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Look NO further! Take pride in owning this charming 3-bedroom home situated on a quiet cul-de-sac! Check out the inviting open floor plan, graced with bountiful natural light, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Tile flooring, neutral palette, and window blinds are worth mentioning. Host dinner parties in the formal dining room, or cook with ease in the well-appointed kitchen fully equipped with recessed lighting, plenty of cabinets with crown moulding, a pantry, granite counters, stainless steel appliances, and a prep island with a breakfast bar for casual dining or conversation. Retreat to the main bedroom, where you will find plush carpet, a private bathroom, and a walk-in closet. Large backyard provides a covered patio, perfect for unwinding. Don't let this amazing deal slip by!

18. 2026-03-28
    price $280,000 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Look NO further! Take pride in owning this charming 3-bedroom home situated on a quiet cul-de-sac! Check out the inviting open floor plan, graced with bountiful natural light, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Tile flooring, neutral palette, and window blinds are worth mentioning. Host dinner parties in the formal dining room, or cook with ease in the well-appointed kitchen fully equipped with recessed lighting, plenty of cabinets with crown moulding, a pantry, granite counters, stainless steel appliances, and a prep island with a breakfast bar for casual dining or conversation. Retreat to the main bedroom, where you will find plush carpet, a private bathroom, and a walk-in closet. Large backyard provides a covered patio, perfect for unwinding. Don't let this amazing deal slip by!

19. 2026-03-26
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Look NO further! Take pride in owning this charming 3-bedroom home situated on a quiet cul-de-sac! Check out the inviting open floor plan, graced with bountiful natural light, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Tile flooring, neutral palette, and window blinds are worth mentioning. Host dinner parties in the formal dining room, or cook with ease in the well-appointed kitchen fully equipped with recessed lighting, plenty of cabinets with crown moulding, a pantry, granite counters, stainless steel appliances, and a prep island with a breakfast bar for casual dining or conversation. Retreat to the main bedroom, where you will find plush carpet, a private bathroom, and a walk-in closet. Large backyard provides a covered patio, perfect for unwinding. Don't let this amazing deal slip by!

20. 2026-03-15
    price $234,900 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Look NO further! Take pride in owning this charming 3-bedroom home situated on a quiet cul-de-sac! Check out the inviting open floor plan, graced with bountiful natural light, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Tile flooring, neutral palette, and window blinds are worth mentioning. Host dinner parties in the formal dining room, or cook with ease in the well-appointed kitchen fully equipped with recessed lighting, plenty of cabinets with crown moulding, a pantry, granite counters, stainless steel appliances, and a prep island with a breakfast bar for casual dining or conversation. Retreat to the main bedroom, where you will find plush carpet, a private bathroom, and a walk-in closet. Large backyard provides a covered patio, perfect for unwinding. Don't let this amazing deal slip by!

21. 2026-02-28
    listed $239,000 Active 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Look NO further! Take pride in owning this charming 3-bedroom home situated on a quiet cul-de-sac! Check out the inviting open floor plan, graced with bountiful natural light, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Tile flooring, neutral palette, and window blinds are worth mentioning. Host dinner parties in the formal dining room, or cook with ease in the well-appointed kitchen fully equipped with recessed lighting, plenty of cabinets with crown moulding, a pantry, granite counters, stainless steel appliances, and a prep island with a breakfast bar for casual dining or conversation. Retreat to the main bedroom, where you will find plush carpet, a private bathroom, and a walk-in closet. Large backyard provides a covered patio, perfect for unwinding. Don't let this amazing deal slip by!

22. 2025-08-13
    historical
23. 2025-07-27
    price $285,000
24. 2025-06-20
    listed $325,000 Active
25. 2022-08-29
    soldstatus $319,990 Closed
26. 2022-07-08
    status Pending
27. 2022-07-06
    price $339,990
28. 2022-07-06
    status Active
29. 2021-08-10
    status Pending
30. 2021-08-07
    listed $306,990 Active
31. 2021-02-22
    soldstatus $1,516,771
32. 2020-01-21
    soldstatus $12,555,000
33. 2009-09-30
    soldstatus $1,320,500
34. 2009-02-04
    soldstatus $2,392
35. 2005-07-05
    soldstatus $6,449,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,397 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,775 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: +$378/yr (+$31/mo · 27.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,659
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$1,397
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,893
• − Management: −$1,893
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$6,662
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,599
• After-tax cash flow: $-281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Florence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #19483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 38,671
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 38,671
• Household income: $79,000
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 102.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.75%
• Current HPI: 233.6644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-95.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $275,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $280,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $234,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listed $239,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-07-27 Price Changed $285,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listed $325,000 ARMLS
• 2022-08-29 Sold (MLS) $319,990 ARMLS
• 2022-07-08 Pending — ARMLS
• 2022-07-06 Price Changed $339,990 ARMLS
• 2022-07-06 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2021-08-10 Pending — ARMLS
• 2021-08-07 Listed $306,990 ARMLS
• 2021-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $1,516,771 Public Records
• 2020-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $12,555,000 Public Records
• 2009-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $1,320,500 Public Records
• 2009-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $2,392 Public Records
• 2005-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $6,449,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+26.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,397 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.