11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #274 · Surprise, AZ 85378

$100,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,595 sqft · Manufactured · 217 Days on market

Built 1990 Fair condition $63/sqft · 20% above area Est $83k · 20% over ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained 2BR/2BA home in Sierra Dawn, a vibrant 55+ community in Surprise. Vaulted ceilings, open great room with formal dining, breakfast nook/bar, and a kitchen with island and crown molding. Two master suites with walk‑in closets, double‑door baths, large Roman tub and separate showers; grab bars for safety. Laundry with W/D, flex room with AC and storage, covered patio, ramp access front and back, 2‑car covered carport and detached exterior storage. Recent paint, 3‑year flooring, 2'' wood‑look blinds, ceiling fans throughout. Community amenities: pool, heated spa, pickleball, shuffleboard, horseshoes, fitness room, dog park, and community room. Near Arrowhead Mall, P83 dining and easy freeway access.

Key facts

• Roman tub
• Covered patio
• Walk in closets

Tags

• WALK IN CLOSETS
• DOUBLE DOOR BATHS
• ROMAN TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWERS
• COVERED PATIO
• DETACHED EXTERIOR STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $729 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $868 of equity ($691 loan paydown + $177 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.25%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $83,341
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: 19.99%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #80	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (-4%)	1mo	$120,000	$78	93
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #28	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,568 (-2%)	12mo	$34,000	$22	87
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #131	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+5%)	5mo	$122,000	$73	87
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #261	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,624 (+2%)	12mo	$149,900	$92	82
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #372	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-2%)	11mo	$93,000	$60	82
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #29	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,534 (-4%)	5mo	$73,500	$48	80
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #182	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,456 (-9%)	9mo	$70,000	$48	78
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #188	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,456 (-9%)	2mo	$80,000	$55	75
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #20	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (+8%)	6mo	$50,000	$29	69
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #196	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,372 (-14%)	12mo	$80,000	$58	62
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #271	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-9%)	8mo	$74,000	$51	59
16101 N El Mirage Rd #361	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,792 (+12%)	12mo	$164,000	$92	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.18% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $39,102
• Equity at exit: $29,925

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.13×
• Total profit: $87,660
• Equity at exit: $36,687

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85378

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,798 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $729

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11345 W Loma Blanca Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,930	$1.41	43d	1	0.29mi
11417 W Amber Trl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,750	$1.55	5d	1	0.30mi
11554 W Mule Deer Ct Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1963	$1,816	$0.93	43d	1	0.62mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 2 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,732	$1.61	24d	1	0.69mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 3 Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,822	$1.54	24d	1	0.69mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,981	$1.67	1d	1	0.76mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,813	$1.68	12d	1	0.76mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,695	$0.98	24d	1	0.80mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1737	$1,695	$0.98	5d	1	0.80mi
12121 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,999	$1.19	24d	1	0.82mi
12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,950	$1.16	24d	1	0.83mi
15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,599	$1.22	24d	2	1.05mi
16629 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1052	$1,462	$1.39	2d	3	1.13mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,695	$1.34	2d	17	1.22mi
11476 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,070	$1.59	43d	1	1.22mi
11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,017	$2.15	1d	1	1.35mi
12437 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	16d	1	1.49mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 217 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 214 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 212 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 208 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 207 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 206 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $100,000 Active 203 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 202 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 201 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 200 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 199 DOM
14. 2026-03-19
    price $100,000 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    Beautifully maintained 2BR/2BA home in Sierra Dawn, a vibrant 55+ community in Surprise. Vaulted ceilings, open great room with formal dining, breakfast nook/bar, and a kitchen with island and crown molding. Two master suites with walk‑in closets, double‑door baths, large Roman tub and separate showers; grab bars for safety. Laundry with W/D, flex room with AC and storage, covered patio, ramp access front and back, 2‑car covered carport and detached exterior storage. Recent paint, 3‑year flooring, 2'' wood‑look blinds, ceiling fans throughout. Community amenities: pool, heated spa, pickleball, shuffleboard, horseshoes, fitness room, dog park, and community room. Near Arrowhead Mall, P83 dining and easy freeway access.

15. 2025-11-12
    listed $110,000 Active 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    Beautifully maintained 2BR/2BA home in Sierra Dawn, a vibrant 55+ community in Surprise. Vaulted ceilings, open great room with formal dining, breakfast nook/bar, and a kitchen with island and crown molding. Two master suites with walk‑in closets, double‑door baths, large Roman tub and separate showers; grab bars for safety. Laundry with W/D, flex room with AC and storage, covered patio, ramp access front and back, 2‑car covered carport and detached exterior storage. Recent paint, 3‑year flooring, 2'' wood‑look blinds, ceiling fans throughout. Community amenities: pool, heated spa, pickleball, shuffleboard, horseshoes, fitness room, dog park, and community room. Near Arrowhead Mall, P83 dining and easy freeway access.

16. 2022-09-28
    soldstatus $110,000 Closed 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    1990 Palm Harbor Spacious 27.5 x 58 as per measurments, buyer to verify. Wood Vinal Flooring. 2 SPLIT Master Bedrooms, 2 bath with sun room. Walk in to a large living room . Spacious Kitcen Loads of counterspace and cabinets . Tons of amenities at this Active Adult community which include, pool, heated spa, dog runs, pickle ball.

17. 2022-09-06
    historical Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    1990 Palm Harbor Spacious 27.5 x 58 as per measurments, buyer to verify. Wood Vinal Flooring. 2 SPLIT Master Bedrooms, 2 bath with sun room. Walk in to a large living room . Spacious Kitcen Loads of counterspace and cabinets . Tons of amenities at this Active Adult community which include, pool, heated spa, dog runs, pickle ball.

18. 2022-06-30
    price $125,000 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    1990 Palm Harbor Spacious 27.5 x 58 as per measurments, buyer to verify. Wood Vinal Flooring. 2 SPLIT Master Bedrooms, 2 bath with sun room. Walk in to a large living room . Spacious Kitcen Loads of counterspace and cabinets . Tons of amenities at this Active Adult community which include, pool, heated spa, dog runs, pickle ball.

19. 2022-06-15
    listed $139,000 Active 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    1990 Palm Harbor Spacious 27.5 x 58 as per measurments, buyer to verify. Wood Vinal Flooring. 2 SPLIT Master Bedrooms, 2 bath with sun room. Walk in to a large living room . Spacious Kitcen Loads of counterspace and cabinets . Tons of amenities at this Active Adult community which include, pool, heated spa, dog runs, pickle ball.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,726
• − Management: −$1,726
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $7,610
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,826
• After-tax cash flow: $6,922/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Painting, updating cabinets, and replacing blinds are recommended to enhance its curb appeal and functionality.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom cabinets — slight wear
• Minor interior walls — paint appears worn

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale replace blinds — new blinds improve light control and aesthetics
• Resale update kitchen cabinets — new cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Resale update bathroom cabinets — new cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Resale update flooring — new flooring improves aesthetics and durability
• Both landscaping — improved landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
interior walls · paint appears worn	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale replace blinds — new blinds improve light control and aesthetics ↑
• Resale update kitchen cabinets — new cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale update bathroom cabinets — new cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale update flooring — new flooring improves aesthetics and durability ↑
• Both landscaping — improved landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,765
• Household income: $56,444
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 510.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Arabic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.18%
• Current HPI: 287.1228
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.53%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-28.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $100,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $110,000 ARMLS
• 2022-09-28 Sold (MLS) $110,000 ARMLS
• 2022-09-06 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2022-06-30 Price Changed $125,000 ARMLS
• 2022-06-15 Listed $139,000 ARMLS