127 W 1st St · Waterford, PA 16441

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1950 0.44 ac lot Est $238k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

AFFORDABLE home in FLB! Property features 2 beds, 1 full bath and an unfinished second floor for additional bedrooms or storage! Hardwood under most carpets! Large back deck with ramp overlooking the bonus second parcel! Sold in as-is condition.

Key facts

• 0.44 acre lot
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $160 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (0.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#79 in PA, #576 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute D-.
• Fort Leboeuf SD (rural): math 52% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #77 of 539 in PA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $139,347 (0.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.90%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $238,032
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
127 W 1st St	0.00mi	2/1.0	912 (0%)	0mo	$139,900	$153	100
205 W 4th St	0.25mi	3/1.5 (+1)	936 (+3%)	10mo	$244,000	$261	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-12,471
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,287
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16441

• Home prices YoY: -33.2%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,393 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,786/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,191

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-07
   listed $139,900
2. 2026-05-07
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,786 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,998 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: +$212/yr (+$18/mo · 11.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,722
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,786
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,338
• − Management: −$1,338
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$346
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$83
• After-tax cash flow: $2,004/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Leboeuf SD
• NCES district ID: 4209990
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $54,607
• Composite: 51.46/100
• National rank: #1725
• State rank: #77 of 539 in PA

Livability — Waterford

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waterford, PA
• Population (ZIP): 9,485

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.87%
• Current HPI: 245.5495
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Delisted — GEBOR
• 2026-05-07 Listed $139,900 GEBOR

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,786 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.