3554 Paganini Pl · Houston, TX 77493

$270,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 2018 5,710 sqft lot $185/sqft · at area comps Est $278k · at est. $73/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Camillo Lakes! This lovely (like new) one-story, 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has been meticulously cared for and is located within the Katy Independent School District (ISD). Some of the homes features include a modern and open floor plan with tall ceilings, hard flooring throughout, fresh neutral paint, a large living room overlooked by a chefs kitchen with granite counter tops, stainless steel appliances and ample storage, oversized secondary rooms, solar panels (which contribute to lower electric bills),a newer HVAC system, custom landscaping and more! The primary bedroom is large and features an attached ensuite with walk in shower and closet. The back lawn is a true must see with its extensive landscaping and covered patio. This home being located in the highly sought after neighborhood of Camillo Lakes you have access to many amenities and are close to shopping and major roadways. Call today for more information.

Key facts

• 5,710 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-234 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,629 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.72%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,380
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -3.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24706 Alberti Sonata Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,421 (-3%)	2mo	$259,000	$182	89
24734 Signorelli Way	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-2%)	10mo	$269,900	$188	72
24707 Bastiani Canvas Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,420 (-3%)	2mo	$259,000	$182	70
24547 Carlo Hue Trl	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,526 (+4%)	16mo	$267,000	$175	64
3822 Giorgio Pastel Pl	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,308 (-10%)	9mo	$247,000	$189	61
24726 Signorelli Way	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,529 (+5%)	20mo	$280,000	$183	59
3915 Arslan Dr	0.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,500 (+3%)	18mo	$270,000	$180	56
3814 Hermitage Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,616 (+11%)	2mo	$376,000	$233	46
25310 Loch Doon Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,616 (+11%)	8mo	$389,990	$241	39
3615 Lochleven Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,616 (+11%)	19mo	$377,960	$234	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-66,080
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-105,329
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2696
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,638 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$716 /mo · $8,597/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$73
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,934

Max offer price $228,629

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3030 Galileo Way Katy, TX	2.0–3.0	2.5	1285	$2,375	$1.85	10d	10	0.07mi
24720 Morton Ranch Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$2,394	$2.23	3d	53	0.53mi
4019 Ventana Ridge Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,218	$1.57	3d	4	0.80mi
24246 Palomino Sage Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,305	$1.24	44d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $73 · $876/yr
• Likely covers: electriclandscaping

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $270,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $270,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $270,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $270,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-04-29
   price $270,000 942-char remark

   Show marketing remark (942 chars)

   Welcome to Camillo Lakes! This lovely (like new) one-story, 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has been meticulously cared for and is located within the Katy Independent School District (ISD). Some of the homes features include a modern and open floor plan with tall ceilings, hard flooring throughout, fresh neutral paint, a large living room overlooked by a chefs kitchen with granite counter tops, stainless steel appliances and ample storage, oversized secondary rooms, solar panels (which contribute to lower electric bills),a newer HVAC system, custom landscaping and more! The primary bedroom is large and features an attached ensuite with walk in shower and closet. The back lawn is a true must see with its extensive landscaping and covered patio. This home being located in the highly sought after neighborhood of Camillo Lakes you have access to many amenities and are close to shopping and major roadways. Call today for more information.

6. 2026-04-08
   listed $277,000 Active 942-char remark

   Show marketing remark (942 chars)

   Welcome to Camillo Lakes! This lovely (like new) one-story, 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has been meticulously cared for and is located within the Katy Independent School District (ISD). Some of the homes features include a modern and open floor plan with tall ceilings, hard flooring throughout, fresh neutral paint, a large living room overlooked by a chefs kitchen with granite counter tops, stainless steel appliances and ample storage, oversized secondary rooms, solar panels (which contribute to lower electric bills),a newer HVAC system, custom landscaping and more! The primary bedroom is large and features an attached ensuite with walk in shower and closet. The back lawn is a true must see with its extensive landscaping and covered patio. This home being located in the highly sought after neighborhood of Camillo Lakes you have access to many amenities and are close to shopping and major roadways. Call today for more information.

7. 2025-09-11
   historical $2,100
8. 2025-09-05
   price $2,100
9. 2025-08-23
   listed $2,200
10. 2025-08-22
    historical $2,300
11. 2025-07-11
    listed $2,300
12. 2022-04-28
    soldstatus Sold 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    Gorgeous one story home in sought after Katy ISD! Built in 2018, this home features a very open layout, high ceilings, 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths. NO carpet, all wood like luxury vinyl plank flooring, granite counter tops in the kitchen with walnut stained cabinets, stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, gas range, water filtration system, covered patio & more! Schedule your showing today, this one is sure to go fast.

13. 2022-04-27
    soldstatus
14. 2022-03-28
    status Pending 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    Gorgeous one story home in sought after Katy ISD! Built in 2018, this home features a very open layout, high ceilings, 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths. NO carpet, all wood like luxury vinyl plank flooring, granite counter tops in the kitchen with walnut stained cabinets, stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, gas range, water filtration system, covered patio & more! Schedule your showing today, this one is sure to go fast.

15. 2022-03-23
    status Option Pending 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    Gorgeous one story home in sought after Katy ISD! Built in 2018, this home features a very open layout, high ceilings, 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths. NO carpet, all wood like luxury vinyl plank flooring, granite counter tops in the kitchen with walnut stained cabinets, stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, gas range, water filtration system, covered patio & more! Schedule your showing today, this one is sure to go fast.

16. 2022-03-17
    listed $289,000 Active 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    Gorgeous one story home in sought after Katy ISD! Built in 2018, this home features a very open layout, high ceilings, 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths. NO carpet, all wood like luxury vinyl plank flooring, granite counter tops in the kitchen with walnut stained cabinets, stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, gas range, water filtration system, covered patio & more! Schedule your showing today, this one is sure to go fast.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,597 · $716/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,597 · $716/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,650
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$8,597
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,532
• − Management: −$2,532
• − HOA: −$876
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$7,216
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,732
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,079/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $277,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Rental Removed $2,100 HARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $2,100 HARMLS
• 2025-08-23 Listed for Rent $2,200 HARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Rental Removed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2025-07-11 Listed for Rent $2,300 HARMLS
• 2022-04-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-04-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-17 Listed $289,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+35.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,597 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.